1,200 Americans interviewed by SurveyUSA as the Dow Jones Industrial Average descended toward 8,000. 78% say they understand what is happening to the economy. Of them:

3 of 4 have cut back on their spending, enough to strangle this economy or any other. Of those who have cut back:
1 in 4 have cut back 10% on their spending.
1 in 4 have cut back 20% on their spending.
Almost half have cut back 30% or more on their spending, which foreshadows a possibly violent contraction.

56% say it’s fair to call what is happening with the economy a “crash.”
Half of homeowners are worried about being late on the mortgage.
3 of 4 renters are woried about being late with the rent.
1 in 4 have changed how or where they keep their money, to put it some place more safe.
Perhaps worst of all, 6 in 10 have no confidence in the government’s ability to fix the economy, unchanged from a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted before the US Congress passed an economic rescue package, that so far has not appeared to rescue anything.

Full results of this poll can be found here.

In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District held today, incumbent Republican Virgil Goode defeats Democratic attorney Tom Perriello 55% to 42%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WJLA-TV Washington DC. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted two months ago, Goode is down 9 points; Perriello is up 12. While Perriello has momentum, he faces a six-term incumbent, which makes the race a very uphill slog for any Democrat, even in the most favorable possible climate for any Democrat to run in.

Goode today leads by 17 points among men, by 11 points among women.
Among voters age 18 to 49, Goode leads by 4 points, down from 33 points two months ago. Among voters age 50+, Goode leads by 21.
Perriello today takes 85% of Democratic votes, up from 67% two months ago. Goode today takes 89% of Republican votes, essentially unchanged from the previous poll. Independents break for Goode by a 2:1 margin.

Goode was first elected to Congress as a Democrat in 1996. Four years later, he switched parties and became an independent; in 2007, he switched to the Republican party, making him the first Republican to represent Virginia’s 5th Congressional district since John Brown, elected in 1886. Goode is seeking his seventh term.

In an election for the open seat in the United States House of Representatives from Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District today, one month to Election Day, DFL Party candidate Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen battle for every vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Madia and Paulsen finish today inside the survey’s margin of sampling error, effectively even, 46% for Madia, 43% for Paulsen. In an identical SurveyUSA poll one month ago, Paulsen was nominally ahead, inside of the margin of sampling error. Today, Madia is.

Paulsen leads among men. Madia leads among women. Paulson leads among voters age 18 to 49. Madia leads among voters age 50+. Each candidate retains 86% of his party’s voters; independents split. Conservatives break 8:1 for Paulsen; liberals break 8:1 for Madia; moderates back Madia 5:3.

Obama and McCain tie in the district. Madia runs 3 points weaker than Barack Obama in the district. Paulsen runs 4 points weaker than John McCain. Madia is viewed favorably by 39% — up 10 points over the past month. Republican Paulsen is viewed favorably by 33%. Retiring 9-term Republican congressman Jim Ramstad is viewed favorably by 58%. In MN3, 10% approve of the job that the US Congress is doing. 28% approve of the job that President George W. Bush is doing.

In an election for President of the United States in Wisconsin today, four weeks till votes are counted and one week until early voting begins, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGBA-TV Green Bay, WDIO-TV Duluth, and KSTP-TV Minneapolis.

McCain leads in greater Milwaukee and among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads, or ties McCain, in all other regions and demographic groups: young and old, male and female, Moderate and Independent, more educated and less educated, lower income and higher income, religious and not so religious.

Full results right here .

In an election for Governor of North Carolina today, four weeks until votes are counted, Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Beverly Perdue tie, 46% McCrory, 45% Perdue, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh.

McCrory’s nominal 1-point advantage is within the survey’s 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error, and is not statistically significant. McCrory leads among men, Perdue among women. There is a 26-point gender gap. McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, leads in greater Charlotte and in greater Greensboro. Perdue leads in greater Raleigh and in Southern and Coastal NC. Libertarian Mike Munger gets 4% today.

In an election for US Senator from North Carolina today, incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan finish effectively even, 44% Dole, 43% Hagan, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Libertarian Chris Cole, gets 7% today, which, when combined with 5% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are undecided in the US Senate contest, means that 1 in 8 voters today vote for neither Dole nor Hagan.

Dole leads among men, among whites, among middle-aged voters and in Southern and Coastal NC. The contest is effectively even in greater Charlotte, greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. Hagan leads among women, among seniors, among blacks, among pro-choice voters, among Moderates and among Independents. SurveyUSA models black turnout at 20% in this poll. If black turnout is higher, Hagan will outperform these numbers.

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, four weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama, or possibly does not, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh. The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different.

The contest in North Carolina has tightened since a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the Republican Convention. Today: McCain leads among men, among voters age 50+, among voters who attend religious services regularly, among pro-life voters and in Greater Charlotte. The contest is effectively even among women, voters under 50, in Greater Greensboro and in Southern and Coastal NC. Obama leads among the youngest voters, among lower-income voters, among Independents, among Moderates, and in greater Raleigh. McCain holds 87% of his GOP base. But Obama holds just 75% of Democrats.

100K NC Blacks May Determine the Next President, the Governor of NC, and whether Democrats Have a Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 17:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA’s model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor’s race. See the SurveyDNA^TM brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.

In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, four weeks to the vote, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released twelve days ago, Obama is up 5 points; McCain is down 4.

Among white voters, who make-up 87% of PA’s electorate, Obama had trailed by 3, now leads by 4 — a 7-point swing to the Democrat, which, when combined with Obama’s now 24:1 advantage among black voters, puts Obama in prime position to capture the 21 Keystone Electoral Votes as the two candidates head for home.

Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama.

Obama leads 2:1 in the Philadelphia area, leads by 10 points in the Scranton area, and nominally in the Pittsburgh area. McCain leads by double digits in Harrisburg and ties Obama in Johnstown.

Click here to view full results of this poll.

Results momentarily on WABC-TV New York and posted here later today.

Just as California did after the 1st presidential debate, just as California did after the vice presidential debate, CA judges Barack Obama the “clear winner” of the 2nd presidential debate. Immediately following last night’s town-hall, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,250 CA adults, of whom 904 watched. Of debate watchers:

56% say Obama was the clear winner.
26% say McCain was the clear winner.
18% say there was no clear winner.

Debate audience was split on whether candidates spent too much time, or just the right amount of time, attacking each other. Audience was 27% Republican, 45% Democrat, 26% Independent. Republicans by 5:2 saw McCain as the clear winner. Democrats by 8:1 saw Obama as the clear winner. Independents, the most critical and coveted group, broke 5:3 for Obama.

42% say McCain was too forceful. 24% say he was not forceful enough. 32% say McCain was just right. 14% say Obama was too forceful. 19% say Obama was not forceful enough. 63% say Obama was just right.

California debate watchers by 2:1 say Obama laid out a better vision for America’s future, McCain by 3:1 appeared more angry.

Moderator Tom Brokaw was seen as impartial. SurveyUSA California research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, KFSN-TV Fresno.