Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10358

Geography Surveyed: KY 3rd Congressional District
Data Collected: 09/26/2006 - 09/28/2006
Release Date: 09/29/2006 11:35 AM ET
Sponsor: WHAS-TV Louisville

Republican Northup Narrowly Re-Elected in KY3: In an election in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 9/29/06, Republican incumbent Anne Northup edges Democratic challenger John Yarmuth, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Northup gets 91% of Republican votes. Yarmuth gets 69% of Democrat votes. 25% of Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican Northup. Independents favor Northup by 18 points. Northup leads by 20 points among male voters; Yarmuth leads by 5 points among female voters; a 25-point Gender Gap. Yarmuth leads 3:1 among African American voters, who make up 17% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. For the Democrats to capture this House seat, Yarmuth needs a heavier black turnout, and less cross-over from African Americans, 23% of whom today vote Republican. Northup, who has was first elected to Congress in 1996, won in 2004 with 60% of the vote, but in her previous 4 elections she had not exceeded 53%. Democrats have targeted Kentucky's 3rd District as a possible pick-up in their push to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Abramson Re-Elected as Metro Mayor of Louisville: In an election today, 9/29/06, Louisville Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson is re-elected with 69% of the vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Republican Kelly Downard is a distant 2nd with 24%. 86% of Democrats vote for Abramson. 49% of Republicans vote for Downard. 45% of Republicans cross over to vote for Abramson. Abramson wins all demographic groups. The election is in 39 days, on 11/7/06. Abramson was elected Mayor of the City of Louisville in 1985, 1989, and 1993. In 2002, after the City of Louisville merged with Jefferson County, he was elected to be the first Louisville Metro Mayor. SurveyUSA tracks the Job Approval rating of Abramson every 30 days for WHAS-TV. Abramson's approval is 67% today.

Filtering: 1,000 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed 9/26/06 - 9/28/06. Of them, 861 were registered to vote. Of them, 529 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District comprises 97% of Louisville/Jefferson county. The results in the Mayoral poll are for the 3rd CD, not for the entire county. The 3% of Jefferson County residents who live outside of the 3rd Congressional District were not included in the interviews for this survey. Given the size of Abramson's lead, the missing 3% of Louisville residents will not affect the outcome of the Mayor election.

  Asked of 529 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Anne Northup? Democrat John Yarmuth? Libertarian Donna Mancini? Or Constitution Party candidate Ed Parker?

50% Northup (R)
44% Yarmuth (D)
2% Mancini (L)
1% Parker (C)
3% Undecided

  Asked of 529 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

If the election for Louisville Metro Mayor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Kelly Downard? Democrat Jerry Abramson? Independent candidate Ed Springston? Or Independent candidate Jerry Mills?

24% Downard (R)
69% Abramson (D)
1% Springston (I)
2% Mills (I)
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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