Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10623

Geography Surveyed: Maryland
Data Collected: 10/31/2006 - 11/02/2006
Release Date: 11/03/2006 10:00 AM ET
Sponsors: WMAR-TV Baltimore, WUSA-TV Washington, DC


SurveyUSA Continues to Show Steele Even With Cardin: Alone among pollsters, SurveyUSA has never showed Democrat Ben Cardin ahead of Republican Michael Steele in 3 tracking polls in the race for Maryland's open U.S. Senate Seat. SurveyUSA showed the race tied in September, tied in October, and shows the race tied today, 11/3/06, 47% to 47%, 4 days to Election Day. One explanation: SurveyUSA's turnout model is 26% black. Of black likely voters, 33% vote for the Republican Steele, who is black. If fewer than 1/3 of blacks vote Republican, the Democrat Cardin wins. Other polling firms show both a lower black turnout and less support among blacks for Steele. Among all voters, 14% of those who vote for the Republican for Senator split their ticket and vote for the Democrat for Governor. Of those who vote for the Democrat for Senator, 14% split their ticket and vote for the Republican for Governor. Steele is Maryland's Lieutenant Governor. Cardin represents Maryland's 3rd CD in the U.S. House of Representatives. Incumbent Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes is retiring after 30 years in office.

GOP Incumbent Ehrlich Catches Democrat Challenger O'Malley in Gov Race: In an election for Governor of Maryland today, 11/3/06, incumbent Republican Bob Ehrlich and Democrat Martin O'Malley tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV Washington DC and WMAR-TV Baltimore. Two weeks ago, the Democrat O'Malley led by 6. Today he leads by 1, sufficiently within the survey's 3.8 percent margin of sampling error that the contest should be reported as a tie. Men are rallying to Ehrlich. Ehrlich trailed among men by 3 on 9/20, led by 6 on 10/18 and leads by 18 today. O'Malley leads by 18 among women, up from 17 points on 10/18, so the gender gap has grown to 36 points. Moderates have broken, late, for the Republican; O'Malley had led by 6, now trails by 4.

Filtering: 900 Maryland adults were interviewed 10/31/06 through 11/2/06. Of them, 798 were registered to vote. Of them, 694 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 694 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.8 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Ehrlich? Democrat Martin O'Malley? Green Party candidate Ed Boyd? Or Populist Party candidate Chris Driscoll?

47% Ehrlich (R)
48% O'Malley (D)
2% Boyd (G)
0% Driscoll (P)
2% Undecided

  Asked of 694 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.8 percentage points.

Maryland voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Michael Steele? Democrat Ben Cardin? Or Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese?

47% Steele (R)
47% Cardin (D)
3% Zeese (G)
4% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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