Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10649

Geography Surveyed: Missouri
Data Collected: 11/03/2006 - 11/05/2006
Release Date: 11/06/2006 12:05 PM ET
Sponsors: KCTV-TV Kansas City, KSDK-TV St. Louis

Missouri Senate Race Continues to Defy Stable Polling: SurveyUSA is working more than 120 separate contests this 2006 Mid-Term Election cycle, and many of them are cliffhangers, where candidates have for months been in tight fights -- but in consistent tight-fights. Other contests are blowouts, but at least they are consistently blowouts. Not one of the contests SurveyUSA is polling, has proven to be as unpredictable, as volatile, and frankly, as un-pollable, as the Missouri Senate race, where Democrat Claire McCaskill, Republican Jim Talent and Amendment 2 are intertwined in a dance of complexity that is hard to untangle. Where SurveyUSA ends up, after a weekend of polling, and 24 hours till polls close, is: Democrat challenger McCaskill 51%, Republican incumbent Talent 42%, and 7% of the vote going elsewhere. Where? SurveyUSA has Libertarian Frank Gilmour at 4%. 3% undecided. Gilmore gets 13% of Independent voters. If the Republicans capture some of Gilmour's vote and all of the undecided vote, the contest is closer than these results indicate. If not, it's a key Democrat take-away. Of those voting for McCaskill, 75% are voting Yes on Amendment 2. Of those voting for Talent, 73% are voting No on Amendment 2. Talent's support, in the campaign's final days, has weakened in greater Kansas City, where he once was tied, but finishes down 27 points. In greater St. Louis, McCaskill finishes 15 points ahead of McCaskill. 91% of Republicans vote Republican. 90% of Democrats vote Democrat. Be Advised: SurveyUSA will continue to poll this contest through Monday night 11/6, and will update these findings if warranted.

Amendment 2 Stable, Favored 5:4: High-Profile Constitutional Amendment 2, on Stem Cells, passes 5:4, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas City and KSDK-TV St. Louis. On 10/24, Amendment 2 led by 9 points. On 10/31, it led by 10 points. Today it leads by 11 points. Most of the demographic subpopulations are remarkably stable, indicating that voters have made up their minds. Only the Ozarks and Central MO are bouncing around. All other groups are unchanged poll-on-poll. 10% of likely voters say they are Not Certain how they will vote on Amendment 2. It is possible these votes will all go against the Amendment, putting passage in doubt. But a more likely outcome is that the Amendment is narrowly approved.

Filtering: 1,000 Missouri adults were interviewed 11/3/06 through 11/5/06. Of them, 885 were registered to vote. Of them, 658 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 658 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?

42% Talent (R)
51% McCaskill (D)
4% Gilmour (L)
3% Other/Undecided

  Asked of 658 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative?

51% 'Certain' Yes
40% 'Certain' No
10% Not Certain

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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