As Arizona's J.D. Hayworth Goes, So Goes Republican Control of the House ... ? In an election for U.S. House of Representatives today, in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, prominent incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 643 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Just as it was in SurveyUSA's most recent poll, released 10/16/06, the contest today is within the survey's margin of sampling error. But unlike 10/16, when Hayworth still clung to a 3-point lead, today it is Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell who is up by 2 points.
Going back to SurveyUSA's first poll in the District in September, Hayworth has lost 6 points, Mitchell has gained 8. A 12-point Republican lead on 9/18 has been erased.
Where is the movement? Among female voters, Mitchell had trailed by 4, now leads by 6, a 10-point swing to the Democrat. Among Moderates, Mitchell led by 15 points 2 weeks ago, today leads by 32 points. Among Republicans, 12% voted Democrat in September, 15% voted Democrat 2 weeks ago, 19% vote Democrat today. While this is still only a small amount of erosion from within the Republican base, in a contest this closely contested, it could make the difference. Among Conservatives, though still overwhelmingly Republican, the number who "cross-over" to vote for the Democrat has doubled, from 8% to 16%. Because the contest has national ramifications, and outside money is pouring in to hold the seat for the GOP, these results may fluctuate in the campaign's remaining 6 days.
Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994.