Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10610

Geography Surveyed: Arizona 5th CD
Data Collected: 10/29/2006 - 10/31/2006
Release Date: 11/01/2006 11:35 AM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

As Arizona's J.D. Hayworth Goes, So Goes Republican Control of the House ... ? In an election for U.S. House of Representatives today, in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, prominent incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth is in trouble, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 643 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Just as it was in SurveyUSA's most recent poll, released 10/16/06, the contest today is within the survey's margin of sampling error. But unlike 10/16, when Hayworth still clung to a 3-point lead, today it is Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell who is up by 2 points. Going back to SurveyUSA's first poll in the District in September, Hayworth has lost 6 points, Mitchell has gained 8. A 12-point Republican lead on 9/18 has been erased. Where is the movement? Among female voters, Mitchell had trailed by 4, now leads by 6, a 10-point swing to the Democrat. Among Moderates, Mitchell led by 15 points 2 weeks ago, today leads by 32 points. Among Republicans, 12% voted Democrat in September, 15% voted Democrat 2 weeks ago, 19% vote Democrat today. While this is still only a small amount of erosion from within the Republican base, in a contest this closely contested, it could make the difference. Among Conservatives, though still overwhelmingly Republican, the number who "cross-over" to vote for the Democrat has doubled, from 8% to 16%. Because the contest has national ramifications, and outside money is pouring in to hold the seat for the GOP, these results may fluctuate in the campaign's remaining 6 days. Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994.

Filtering: 800 Registered Voters from Arizona's 5th Congressional district were interviewed 10/29/06 through 10/31/06. Of them, 643 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 643 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican J.D. Hayworth? Democrat Harry Mitchell? Or Libertarian Warren Severin?

46% Hayworth (R)
48% Mitchell (D)
4% Severin (L)
2% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations