Analysis: In a hypothetical election for Massachusetts Governor today, 3/6/06, Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey wins by 5 points if her challenger is Democrat Deval Patrick, but Republican Healey loses by 5 points if instead her challenger is Democrat Tom Reilly, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 700 registered Massachusetts voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV. Independent Christy Mihos finishes a strong third in either match-up. When Patrick is the Democratic candidate, Healey gets 35%, Patrick 30%, Mihos 20%. 14% are undecided. When Reilly is the Democrat, Reilly gets 36%, Healey gets 31%, Mihos 22%. 11% are undecided. Women view the Democratic hopefuls differently: When Reilly is the Democrat, Reilly leads among women by 15 points. When Patrick is the Democrat, Patrick trails among women by 1 point, a 16-point difference. In both races, Healey gets 2 out of 3 Republican voters. Among Democrats, Reilly leads Healey by 46 points and Patrick leads Healey by 33 points. Healey gets a plurality among Independents in both match-ups; Independents prefer Mihos to Patrick but support Mihos and Reilly equally. The general election for Governor is on 11/7/06. The Democratic Primary, which will determine which Democrat opposes Healey, is 9/19/06. |