Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14476

Geography Surveyed: New Mexico
Data Collected: 09/29/2008 - 09/30/2008
Release Date: 10/01/2008 8:45 AM ET
Sponsor: KOB-TV Albuquerque

New Mexico Looks Less-and-Less Like a Toss-Up, 5 Weeks Till Votes are Counted: In an election for President of the United States in New Mexico today, 10/01/08, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 52% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Compared to an identical poll released two weeks ago, both candidates' numbers are unchanged.

While overall numbers remain steady, there is some offsetting movement along gender lines: Among men, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 2. Among women, Obama had led by 6, now leads by 14 -- an 8-point swing toward McCain among men and a reciprocal 8-point swing in Obama's favor among women.

Obama cannot win the state without the support of Hispanic Americans and Native Americans. McCain leads by 9 points among New Mexico whites; Obama leads by 37 points among Hispanics and by 33 points among Natives. If Hispanic turnout is overstated in this model, so is Obama's lead. If Hispanic turnout is understated in this model, so is Obama's lead.

13% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 17% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; independents favor Obama by 16 points. Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 12 points. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 11. Among those who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 10.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 New Mexico adults 09/29/08 and 09/30/08. Of them, 795 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 698 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. New Mexico has 5 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried New Mexico by 5,988 votes in 2004; Al Gore carried New Mexico by 366 votes in 2000.

  Asked of 698 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.8 percentage points.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

44% McCain (R)
52% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

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  Statement of Methodology
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