Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #8663

Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
Data Collected: 03/25/2006 - 03/27/2006
Release Date: 03/28/2006 11:50 AM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

Analysis: In a Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District today, 3/28/06, Democrat Francine Busby tops a crowded field of Republicans, but falls just short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff June 6th. With 2 weeks to the 4/11 Primary, Busby is at 45%, trailed by Republican Eric Roach at 14%, Republican Howard Kaloogian at 12%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 10%. Busby is supported by 85% of Democrats, half of Independents, and 10% of Republicans. Kaloogian and Roach are each supported by 23% of Republicans. The district is heavily Republican and whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff, but the Democrats have a chance to capture the seat if Busby can top 50% in the Primary. Busby gets 53% among female voters. The larger the turnout among women, the better Busby's chances to avoid a runoff. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 3/25/06 - 3/27/06. Of them, 404 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Primary voters.

  Asked of 404 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 5 percentage points.

On April 11th, there will be a Special Primary in California's 50th Congressional District. If the Special Primary for Congress were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Brian Bilbray? Francine Busby? Howard Kaloogian? Bill Morrow? Eric Roach? Alan Uke? Or some other candidate?

10% Bilbray (R)
45% Busby (D)
12% Kaloogian (R)
5% Morrow (R)
14% Roach (R)
5% Uke (R)
6% Other
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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