Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10787

Geography Surveyed: CA 4th Congressional District
Data Collected: 11/01/2006 - 11/02/2006
Release Date: 11/03/2006 1:25 PM ET
Sponsor: KXTV-TV Sacramento

Doolittle Appears to Do Enough to Hold CA4 for GOP: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican John Doolittle defeats Democrat challenger Charles Brown, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 647 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KXTV-TV Sacramento. Brown has closed from a 10-point deficit on 10/23 to a 7-point deficit today. Further tightening is still possible, depending on how much national money is spent by the Democratic Party to take-away the seat. But barring the completely unforeseen, Doolittle should hold the House seat for the GOP. All of Brown's gains have come from women. Down 6 points among women 2 weeks ago, he is up by 7 points today, a 13-point swing. Among males, Brown trails by 20 points. Brown's chances are hurt by Libertarian candidate Dan Warren. Warren gets 5% in today's SurveyUSA poll. Among Independent voters, who break 3:1 for the Democrat Brown, the Libertarian gets 10%. If the 3rd-party protest vote dries up on Election Day, the Democrat may slightly outperform SurveyUSA's numbers here. Republicans outnumber Democrats 54% to 29% in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Doolittle was first elected to Congress in 1990.

Filtering: 900 adults from California's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 10/31/06 through 11/2/06. Of them, 813 were registered to vote. Of them, 647 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 647 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican John Doolittle? Democrat Charles Brown? Or Libertarian Dan Warren?

50% Doolittle (R)
43% Brown (D)
5% Warren (L)
1% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations