Doolittle Appears to Do Enough to Hold CA4 for GOP: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 4th Congressional District, incumbent Republican John Doolittle defeats Democrat challenger Charles Brown, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 647 Likely Voters conducted exclusively for KXTV-TV Sacramento.
Brown has closed from a 10-point deficit on 10/23 to a 7-point deficit today. Further tightening is still possible, depending on how much national money is spent by the Democratic Party to take-away the seat. But barring the completely unforeseen, Doolittle should hold the House seat for the GOP.
All of Brown's gains have come from women. Down 6 points among women 2 weeks ago, he is up by 7 points today, a 13-point swing. Among males, Brown trails by 20 points. Brown's chances are hurt by Libertarian candidate Dan Warren. Warren gets 5% in today's SurveyUSA poll. Among Independent voters, who break 3:1 for the Democrat Brown, the Libertarian gets 10%. If the 3rd-party protest vote dries up on Election Day, the Democrat may slightly outperform SurveyUSA's numbers here. Republicans outnumber Democrats 54% to 29% in SurveyUSA's turnout model.
Doolittle was first elected to Congress in 1990.