Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10639

Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
Data Collected: 11/01/2006 - 11/03/2006
Release Date: 11/04/2006 11:25 AM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

Never Mind; Busby Fades at the Finish & Bilbray Holds CA50 for Republicans: Polling exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego, SurveyUSA wrote on 9/13/06 that CA50 was "safe" for the GOP. Republican Brian Bilbray at that time had a 14 point lead, and appeared to be out of reach. Then, on 10/16/06, in the middle of the media coverage of Mark Foley, Democrat Francine Busby closed to within 2 points in SurveyUSA tracking, and SurveyUSA took back "safe," and instead said that seat was "in play." Now, at the finish line, things have returned to almost exactly where they were in September. Bilbray leads by 14 points in November, just as he did in September. Today: 55% Bilbray, 41% Busby, 72 hours till voting stops. This is the 3rd election between Bilbray and Busby this year. Busby lost to Republican "Duke" Cunningham by 58% to 37% in 2004, but finished first in a Special election 4/11/06 to replace Cunningham, who had resigned 11/28/05. Since Busby fell short of a majority, there was a runoff 6/6/06, which Bilbray won by 4 points.

Filtering: 700 adults from California's 50th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 11/1/06 through 11/3/06. Of them, 550 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 550 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.2 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Bilbray? Democrat Francine Busby? Libertarian Paul King? Or Peace and Freedom Party candidate Miriam Clark?

55% Bilbray (R)
41% Busby (D)
2% King (L)
0% Clark (PFP)
1% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations