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Analysis: In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 7/25/06, incumbent Democratic Rod Blagojevich defeats Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis. Blagojevich gets 45% today. Topinka gets 34%. 17% would vote for some other candidate. 5% are undecided. Since an identical SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll 9 weeks ago, Blagojevich has gained 2 points and Topinka has lost 3 points. Blagojevich had led by 6, now leads by 11. Among male voters, Blagojevich had been down 4, now up 8, a 12-point swing in his favor. Topinka is tied with Blagojevich among white voters. But Topinka trails Blagojevich among black voters 6:1. Blagojevich leads by 57 points among Democrats. Topinka, who is Illinois State Treasurer, leads by 50 points among Republicans. Independents are split. Blagojevich wins 5:1 in the city of Chicago. The two are effectively tied in Suburban Cook County and in the Chicago Collar Counties. Topinka is up by 4 points Downstate. The election is on 11/7/06. |