Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12885

Geography Surveyed: State of Washington
Data Collected: 10/26/2007 - 10/28/2007
Release Date: 10/29/2007 11:10 AM ET
Sponsor: KING-TV Seattle

Washington State Resolution 4202 Leading, Referendum 67 Tied, Initiative 960 Trailing: Washington voters have 8 more days to vote on 3 statewide ballot measures. At this hour, based on SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KING-TV, Resolution 4204, about schools, is supported, and the likeliest of the 3 measures to pass. Referendum 67, about insurance, is tied, could go either way. And Initiative 960, about state taxes, is trailing, and the most likely to be defeated.

4204: Resolution 4204 leads by 15 points, which includes a 24-point lead among those who have already voted. Democrats favor. Republicans and Independents split. 15% of voters are Not Certain how they will vote. If all of them vote No, the outcome could be close. Otherwise, 4204 is positioned to pass.

67: Referendum 67 is tied, 35% to 35% without leaners, 40% to 40% with leaners. Seattle and Western WA support. Eastern WA opposes. Moderates and Liberals support. Conservatives oppose. Democrats and Independents support. Republicans oppose. Ever-so-slightly, older voters support, younger voters oppose. 20% of voters are Not Certain on 67. How this group breaks will determine the outcome.

960: Initiative 960 is defeated 2:1 in a vote today. Women and greater Seattle voters oppose by 3:1. Those who have already voted oppose 2:1. A third of voters are Not Certain how they will vote on 960. If all of them vote Yes, the outcome could be close. Otherwise, the measure will be defeated.

Methodology and Filtering: 1,000 state of Washington adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/26/07 through 10/28/07. Of them, 826 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 212 have already voted, and another 347 were determined by SurveyUSA to be certain to vote on or before 11/06/07. Adding the two groups together, 559 Washingtonians are included as "likely voters" in this survey, 38% of whom have already cast ballots. Those respondents who have not yet cast ballots, and who told SurveyUSA they were "Not Certain" how they would vote on a particular ballot measure, were then asked if they "lean toward yes," "lean toward no," or do not lean. For all 3 ballot measures, two separate sets of answers are reported. One: without the leaners. The "Not Certain" answer is accepted without probing. Two: with the leaners. The "Not Certain" voters who lean Yes are combined with the Yes votes, and the Not Certain voters who lean No are combined with the No votes. The Not Certain voters who do not lean continue to be reported as Not Certain.