Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10185

Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
Data Collected: 09/10/2006 - 09/12/2006
Release Date: 09/13/2006 2:30 PM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

Republican Bilbray Increases Lead in Duke Cunningham's District: In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today, 9/13/06, in California's 50th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Congressman Brian Bilbray defeats Democrat Francine Busby 54% to 40%, effectively taking this seat out of play for the Democrats, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. Bilbray, who beat Busby by 4 points in a special election 6/6/06 to win the seat, now with the advantages of incumbency leads by 14 points. In an identical SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll 2 months ago, Bilbray led by 11 points. The election is in 8 weeks, on 11/7/06. Much of the movement from SurveyUSA's July poll to today comes from Moderates. Busby had led by 14 among CA50 Moderates, now trails by 3, a 17-point swing. Moderates make-up 42% of likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Bilbray leads among male voters by 34 points. Busby leads among female voters by 4 points, a 38-point "gender gap." Bilbray wins 15:1 among Republicans. Busby wins 7:1 among Democrats. Independents are tied. Among those who approve of President Bush's job performance, Bilbray leads 30:1. Those who disapprove of Bush's performance vote for by Busby 5:1.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District were interviewed 9/10/06 - 9/12/06. Of them, 540 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 540 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

If the election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Brian Bilbray? Democrat Francine Busby? Or some other candidate?

54% Bilbray (R)
40% Busby (D)
0% Other
5% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations