Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10630

Geography Surveyed: NY 26th Congressional District
Data Collected: 11/01/2006 - 11/03/2006
Release Date: 11/04/2006 10:45 AM ET
Sponsor: WGRZ-TV Buffalo

In NY26, GOP Reynolds Appears to Hold Seat Despite Foley Involvement: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives in New York's 26th Congressional District today, 11/4/06, incumbent Republican Tom Reynolds appears to survive a scare from Democrat Jack Davis, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 470 likely voters conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. Although the demographic crosstabs reflect a lot of volatility in the contest, and considerable movement among the subpopulations, when the data is aggregated, Reynolds has 50%, unchanged from SurveyUSA's most recent poll in this District on 10/26/06; Davis has 46%, up from 45 on 10/26. Davis led on 10/5/06, but has trailed, consistently, in 3 SurveyUSA polls taken since. Today, as on 10/19, as on 10/26, Reynolds' advantage is at the edge of the survey's margin of sampling error, and a different outcome on Election Day is possible, given the unusual nature of the campaign. But all SurveyUSA data points to the fact that Mark Foley will not cause the GOP to lose this particular House seat, 3 days to Election Day. This contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%.

Filtering: 700 registered voters from New York's 26th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 11/1/06 through 11/3/06. Of them, 470 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 470 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.6 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Reynolds? Or Democrat Jack Davis?

50% Reynolds (R)
46% Davis (D)
4% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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