Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13370

Geography Surveyed: Texas
Data Collected: 02/16/2008 - 02/18/2008
Release Date: 02/18/2008 3:15 PM ET
Sponsors: KRLD-AM Dallas, KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas

Depending on Hispanic Turnout, Clinton is Either Slightly Ahead, or Not so Slightly Ahead, in Texas Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/18/08, 15 days to the vote, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. BUT: there is "give" in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show. Among white voters, Clinton leads by 12. Among black voters, Obama leads by 57. Race Gap is 69 points. Among males, Obama leads by 20. Among females, Clinton leads by 27. Gender Gap is 47 points. Among registered Democrats, Clinton up 14. Among Independents, Obama up 28. Among voters under age 50, Obama by 6. Among Voters 50+, Clinton by 17. Age Gap is 23 points. Clinton ahead in South Texas and West Texas. Obama and Clinton within the margin of sampling error in North Texas, East Texas, and Central Texas.

New Age Grouping Unveiled: In this poll, SurveyUSA unveils for the first time a new way of looking at candidate preference. Voters are divided into three groups: 1) Younger than Obama. 2) Older than McCain. 3) In Between (hereafter, "In-Betweeners.") Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 6. Among voters older than McCain, Clinton leads by 45. Among In-Betweeners, Clinton leads by 8. Note that in Texas, according to SurveyUSA's turnout model today, 47% of Democratic Primary voters are younger than Obama. 11% of voters are older than McCain. 43% of voters are In Between.

Filtering: 2,100 state of Texas adults were interviewed 02/16/08 through 02/18/08. Of them, 1,866 were registered to vote. Of them, 660 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 03/04/08 Democratic Primary.

  Asked of 660 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?

50% Clinton
45% Obama
3% Other
2% Undecided

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  Statement of Methodology
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