Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10072
Geography Surveyed: Virginia
Data Collected: 08/18/2006 - 08/20/2006
Release Date: 08/21/2006 11:40 AM ET
Sponsors: WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WUSA-TV Washington, DC
GOP Allen's Once Large Lead Evaporates: In an election for the United State Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WUSA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points. Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, 1 week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters, he has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing. Those who support Ballot Question 1, defining marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, vote for Allen by 39 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 64 points. The election is in 11 weeks, on 11/7/06. The Republicans have a 10-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Allen's seat had been considered safely Republican, and Allen himself had been widely considered to be a Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2008.
Marriage Amendment Passes 2:1. In an election in Virginia today, 8/21/06, Question 1, which amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to define marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, passes with 65% "Yes" to 34% "No", according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WUSA-TV Washington DC. Republicans support the Amendment 8:1. Democrats oppose the Amendment 5:4. Independents support it 3:2. 92% of Conservatives vote "Yes." 29% of Liberals vote "Yes." Those who approve of President Bush's job performance support the Amendment 9:1. Those who disapprove of Bush oppose the Amendment. The Amendment is supported by 89% of Allen voters but by only 39% of Webb voters.
Filtering: 1,200 Virginia adults were interviewed 8/18/06 - 8/20/06. Of them, 1,002 were registered to vote. Of them, 576 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
|Asked of 576 Likely Voters|
|Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.2 percentage points.|
|If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?|
|Asked of 576 Likely Voters|
|Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.|
|Question 1 amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to say the following: that only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions. In an election today, would you vote yes? Or no? On Question 1?|
|Complete Interactive Crosstabs|
|Statement of Methodology|
|© 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations|