Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10187

Geography Surveyed: Virginia
Data Collected: 09/10/2006 - 09/12/2006
Release Date: 09/13/2006 11:25 AM ET
Sponsors: WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WUSA-TV Washington, DC

Steady As She Goes in VA Senate; Allen Still 3 Points Ahead of Webb: In an election for the United State Senate in Virginia today, 9/13/06, incumbent Republican George Allen maintains a slight 48% to 45% advantage over Democrat challenger James Webb, identical to the findings of a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted 3 weeks ago and released 8/21/06. Both SurveyUSA polls are conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. SurveyUSA's 8/21/06 poll was conducted during the height of publicity over comments Allen made to a Webb campaign worker. The impact of those comments should now have now been fully digested by the electorate, and the narrowing of the race appears not to have been temporary. Today, Allen gets 90% of Republican votes. Webb gets 85% of Democrat votes. Independents choose Webb 45% to 37%. Allen leads by 14 points among men, trails by 8 points among women, a 22-point "gender gap." Allen leads by 7 in Rural VA, leads by 8 in Suburban VA. Webb leads by 14 in Urban VA. The two candidates are tied among voters earning less than $40,000/year. Allen leads by 17 points among middle-income voters. Web leads by 6 points among upper-income voters. Those who support Ballot Question 1 on Marriage, vote for Allen by 36 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 72 points. The election is in 8 weeks, on 11/7/06. The Republicans have a 10-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Allen's seat had been considered safely Republican, and Allen himself had been widely considered to be a Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2008.

VA Marriage Amendment Passes ... But By How Much? In a referendum in Virginia today, 9/13/06, Question 1, which would amend the Virginia Bill of Rights to define marriage, passes 68% to 29%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, support is up 3, opposition is down 5. The measure had passed by 31 points, now passes by 39 points. Those who approve of President Bush's job performance support the Amendment 13:1. Those who disapprove of Bush narrowly oppose the Amendment. The Amendment is supported by 91% of Allen voters, 43% of Webb voters. For both today's 9/13/06 release and for SurveyUSA's 8/21/06 release, SurveyUSA read a 37 word summary of Question 1 to respondents (exact language below). The full text of the ballot question is 103 words. There is other polling on this ballot question that shows the Amendment passing by a smaller margin. When Mason-Dixon Opinion Research read a summary of Question 1 to respondents, it found Question 1 passing by 18 points. When Mason Dixon read the full text of the ballot language to respondents, it showed the measure passing by 14 points. As the forces who support and the forces who oppose Question 1 spend money to raise the awareness of Virginia voters about just what the implications of Question 1 may be, SurveyUSA would expect the results of disparate polls to converge. Today, the measure passes, and the vote is not close. This may or may not change as Election Day approaches.

Filtering: 1,000 Virginia adults were interviewed 9/10/06 - 9/12/06. Of them, 805 were registered to vote. Of them, 467 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 467 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.6 percentage points.

If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?

48% Allen (R)
45% Webb (D)
3% Parker (IG)
1% Other
4% Undecided

  Asked of 467 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

Question 1 amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to say the following: that only a union between one man and one woman may be a marriage valid in or recognized by this Commonwealth and its political subdivisions. In an election today, would you vote yes? Or no? On Question 1?

68% Yes
29% No
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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