Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10396

Geography Surveyed: KY 4th Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/07/2006 - 10/09/2006
Release Date: 10/10/2006 11:55 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville

Republican Davis, Democrat Lucas See-Saw Once Again in KY4: In an election today, 10/10/2006, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, it's Republican incumbent Geoff Davis 47%, Democratic challenger Ken Lucas 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, on 9/19/06, Davis, who lost to Lucas in 2002 but was elected in 2004 after Lucas retired, has gained 4 points. Lucas, who represented the 4th District from 1999 through 2004, has lost 3 points. Lucas led by 9 points in July. That lead was outside of the survey's margin of error. Since then, Lucas trailed by 2 in August, led by 4 in September, now trails by 3. All of those results are within the surveys' margins of sampling error. The movement may or may not be statistically significant; the movement could just be random statistical fluctuation. Within the past two weeks, voters age 35 to 64 have moved toward the Republican. Davis gets 81% of Republican votes. Lucas gets 78% of Democrat votes. There is movement among Independents towards the Democrat. Both parties covet the House seat as they seek control of Congress. Heavy ad spending and a nationalized agenda mean poll results are likely to fluctuate further between now and election day. The election is in 4 weeks, on 11/7/06.

Filtering: 900 adults from Kentucky's 4th Congressional District were interviewed 10/7/06 - 10/9/06. Of them, 771 were registered to vote. Of them, 459 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 459 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.7 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Geoff Davis? Democrat Ken Lucas? Or Libertarian Brian Houillion?

47% Davis (R)
44% Lucas (D)
6% Houillion (L)
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations