Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7006

Geography Surveyed: City of San Diego, CA
Data Collected: 09/24/2005 - 09/26/2005
Release Date: 09/27/2005 11:30 AM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

Analysis: In a runoff election today, 9/27/05, for Mayor of San Diego, Donna Frye and Jerry Sanders tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 630 likely city of San Diego voters, conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV. Election day is 11/8. Frye today gets 49% of the vote, up 5 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago. Sanders today gets 48%, down 6 points. Frye's gains are largest among young voters and Hispanics. 4 weeks ago, voters under age 35, who in general are the least reliable voters, chose Sanders by 12 points. They now back Frye by 20 points. It is unclear how much of this is real movement and how much is statistical noise. Among Hispanic voters, who are 15% of the electorate in this poll, Frye has gone from a 4 point deficit to a 24 point lead. In a special election 7/26/05, Frye got 43%, to 27% for Sanders and 24% for Steve Francis, who endorsed Sanders after finishing 3rd. 81% of Francis's voters now choose Sanders. Frye leads 5:1 among liberals, 7:2 among Democrats, 6:5 among the most educated voters. Dick Murphy, who narrowly defeated Frye's write-in candidacy last November, resigned as Mayor effective 7/15/05.

Pollster Caution: City government in San Diego is unstable. Electorate is volatile. Circumstances are unprecedented, posing unique challenges to pollsters.

Filtering: 1,500 city of San Diego adults were interviewed 9/24/05 - 9/26/05. Of them, 1,236 were registered voters. Of them, 630 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.

  Asked of 630 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

San Diego will elect a Mayor on November 8th. If the election for Mayor of San Diego were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Donna Frye? Or Jerry Sanders?

49% Frye
48% Sanders
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2005 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations