Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10617

Geography Surveyed: Illinois
Data Collected: 10/30/2006 - 11/01/2006
Release Date: 11/02/2006 12:35 PM ET
Sponsor: KSDK-TV St. Louis

Democrat Rod Blagojevich Re-Elected IL Governor... But Whitney Could Determine By How Much: In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 11/2/06, 5 days to the vote, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich is re-elected, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis. But, Blagojevich's margin of victory could be the 8 points that SurveyUSA reports here, or could be larger, depending on other factors. First among them: support for Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney, who receives 14% of the likely vote in today's SurveyUSA's poll. If Whitney's support is more of a protest by voters over how unhappy they are with having to choose between Blagojevich and Topinka, as opposed to genuine enthusiasm for Whitney and the Green Party, then some of Whitney's support may dry up before Election Day, and that support could go elsewhere, or stay home. Already, Whitney's support among Independent voters is down from 29% in a SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll on 10/23 to 21% today. Next: some, but not all, parts of Illinois have hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives. In those Congressional Districts, turnout will be higher than it will be in non-competitive U.S. House districts in Illinois. As SurveyUSA adjusts its turnout model to include more Likely Voters in its respondent pool, Blagojevich's margin of victory increases, in some scenarios by quite a bit. There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins. In the data SurveyUSA reports here, Blagojevich gets 45%, not materially different than his support in two previous SurveyUSA polls. Topinka today is at 37%. In two previous SurveyUSA polls she had been at 39% and 34%. SurveyUSA expects Blagojevich to finish in the mid 40s, Topinka to finish in the mid 30s. SurveyUSA does not see Blagojevich breaking 50% unless the Green vote disintegrates.

Filtering: 1,000 Illinois adults were interviewed 10/30/06 through 11/1/06. Of them, 885 were registered to vote. Of them, 434 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 434 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.8 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Judy Baar Topinka? Democrat Rod Blagojevich? Green Party candidate Rich Whitney? Or some other candidate?

37% Topinka (R)
45% Blagojevich (D)
14% Whitney (G)
4% Other/Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations