Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10397

Geography Surveyed: Tennessee
Data Collected: 10/07/2006 - 10/09/2006
Release Date: 10/10/2006 11:40 AM ET
Sponsor: WBIR-TV Knoxville

TN Senate Remains Tied, But Movement to Corker Tilts Teeter-Totter Towards GOP: In an election for United States Senator from Tennessee today, 10/10/06, Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. remain effectively tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. But unlike 4 weeks ago, when Democrat Ford had a slight advantage within the survey's margin of sampling error, today it is Republican Corker who has the slight advantage, within the survey's margin of sampling error. Corker today gets 48%, up 3 points in the past 4 weeks. Ford today gets 46%, down 2 points. Ford had led by 3, now Corker leads by 2. Where is the movement? In Western TN, Ford had led by 24 points, now trails by 1, a 25-point swing. Among middle income voters, who earn between $40K per year and $80K per year, the candidates had been tied; now Corker is up by 11. Among voters who earn more than $80K per year, there is offsetting movement away from Corker. Today, 81% of Democrats vote Democrat. 84% of Republicans vote Republican. Independents break 6:5 for the Democrat. Black turnout is critical to the outcome of this contest. Corker leads by 7 among whites, who make up 84% of TN Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Ford, an African American, leads by 47 points among black voters, who make up 13% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. There is some movement among black voters to Corker. In general, a higher black turnout helps Ford. A lower black turnout helps Corker. But: every black voter who votes Republican makes the climb that much more uphill for Ford. There is a 22-point Gender Gap in today's data: Corker leads by 12 among males. Ford leads by 10 among females. Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Frist is not running for re-election. This open seat is critical for the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate.

Bredesen 2:1 Atop Bryson for Governor of TN: In an election for Governor of Tennessee today, 10/10/06, Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen defeats Republican Challenger Jim Bryson 63% to 32%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. The election is in 4 weeks, on 11/7/06. Since an identical SurveyUSA WBIR-TV poll 9/12/06, 4 weeks ago, Bryson has gained 2 points, while Bredesen is unchanged. 87% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. Just 59% of Republican vote for the Republican. 39% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents prefer Bredesen 3:1. Likely voters who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance pick Bryson 58% to 36%. Those who disapprove of Bush pick Bredesen 86% to 10%. President Bush's job approval among Tennessee likely voters is 45%.

Filtering: 1,000 Tennessee adults were interviewed 10/7/06 - 10/9/06. Of them, 828 were registered to vote. Of them, 539 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 539 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.2 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Bryson? Democrat Phil Bredesen? Or some other candidate?

32% Bryson (R)
63% Bredesen (D)
5% Other/Undecided

  Asked of 539 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

Tennessee voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Corker? Democrat Harold Ford Jr.? Or some other candidate?

48% Corker (R)
46% Ford (D)
6% Other/Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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