Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10397

Geography Surveyed: Tennessee
Data Collected: 10/07/2006 - 10/09/2006
Release Date: 10/10/2006 11:40 AM ET
Sponsor: WBIR-TV Knoxville

TN Senate Remains Tied, But Movement to Corker Tilts Teeter-Totter Towards GOP: In an election for United States Senator from Tennessee today, 10/10/06, Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. remain effectively tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. But unlike 4 weeks ago, when Democrat Ford had a slight advantage within the survey's margin of sampling error, today it is Republican Corker who has the slight advantage, within the survey's margin of sampling error. Corker today gets 48%, up 3 points in the past 4 weeks. Ford today gets 46%, down 2 points. Ford had led by 3, now Corker leads by 2. Where is the movement? In Western TN, Ford had led by 24 points, now trails by 1, a 25-point swing. Among middle income voters, who earn between $40K per year and $80K per year, the candidates had been tied; now Corker is up by 11. Among voters who earn more than $80K per year, there is offsetting movement away from Corker. Today, 81% of Democrats vote Democrat. 84% of Republicans vote Republican. Independents break 6:5 for the Democrat. Black turnout is critical to the outcome of this contest. Corker leads by 7 among whites, who make up 84% of TN Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Ford, an African American, leads by 47 points among black voters, who make up 13% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. There is some movement among black voters to Corker. In general, a higher black turnout helps Ford. A lower black turnout helps Corker. But: every black voter who votes Republican makes the climb that much more uphill for Ford. There is a 22-point Gender Gap in today's data: Corker leads by 12 among males. Ford leads by 10 among females. Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Frist is not running for re-election. This open seat is critical for the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate.

Bredesen 2:1 Atop Bryson for Governor of TN: In an election for Governor of Tennessee today, 10/10/06, Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen defeats Republican Challenger Jim Bryson 63% to 32%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. The election is in 4 weeks, on 11/7/06. Since an identical SurveyUSA WBIR-TV poll 9/12/06, 4 weeks ago, Bryson has gained 2 points, while Bredesen is unchanged. 87% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. Just 59% of Republican vote for the Republican. 39% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents prefer Bredesen 3:1. Likely voters who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance pick Bryson 58% to 36%. Those who disapprove of Bush pick Bredesen 86% to 10%. President Bush's job approval among Tennessee likely voters is 45%.

Filtering: 1,000 Tennessee adults were interviewed 10/7/06 - 10/9/06. Of them, 828 were registered to vote. Of them, 539 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.