Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21105

Geography Surveyed: City of San Diego, CA
Data Collected: 02/03/2014 - 02/06/2014
Release Date: 02/07/2014 8:00 AM ET
Sponsors: KGTV-TV San Diego, U-T San Diego

Possible Last-Minute Surge For Alvarez Propels Him to Within 1 Point of Faulconer for San Diego Mayor; Anyone's Guess Who Wins:

Heading into the final campaign weekend, with half or more of voters having already returned a ballot, SurveyUSA finds the contest a jump ball: 47% Kevin Faulconer, 46% David Alvarez - exactly where the contest was 2 months ago, when SurveyUSA released the 1st of 4 tracking polls.

Compared to an identical KGTV-TV 10 News Union Tribune poll released 2 weeks ago, Faulconer is down 2 points, Alvarez is up 2 points.

Latino voters now break 2:1 for Alvarez, whose support can no longer be characterized just as "young." Alvarez leads today, though modestly, among voters age 64 and younger. Faulconer's statistically insignificant 1-point advantage in the contest comes entirely from voters age 65+, among whom he leads by 17 points.

Women have broken sharply, late, for Alvarez. In 3 earlier polls, women divided evenly between the 2 candidates; now, newly, Alvarez leads by 9.

Upper-income voters have moved to Alvarez. One month ago, Faulconer led among the wealthiest San Diegans by 24 points. Today, Faulconer trails by 2, a 26-point swing to Alvarez

Independent voters have begun to take a 2nd look at Alvarez. He had trailed among Independents by 23 points, now by 10.

Alvarez has closed the gap among moderates: at one point he had trailed by 21, now trails by 5.

The contest is now even among those have started college and among those who have finished college. Both of these findings are improvements for Alvarez.

Is there any good news for Faulconer in the poll? He leads among men, just as he has in each of SurveyUSA's 4 tracking polls. And he leads among voters who say they have already returned a ballot - arguably the most committed voters. For Alvarez to win, he must win outright the votes of those who cast a ballot on Election Day.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 02/03/14 through 02/06/14. Of the adults, 692 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 632 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before the deadline next Tuesday 02/11/14. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (86% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (14 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


1
  Asked of 639 likely & actual voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

If the runoff election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Kevin Faulconer? Or David Alvarez?

47% Kevin Faulconer
46% David Alvarez
7% Undecided

2
  Asked of 639 likely & actual voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4 percentage points.

Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?

35% Integrity
23% Leadership
5% Stability
7% Business Experience
18% Fiscal Responsibility
7% Reach Across Party Lines
4% Something Else
1% Not Sure

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