Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10412

Geography Surveyed: AZ 5th Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006
Release Date: 10/16/2006 12:50 PM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

Mitchell Gains Ground On Hayworth, AZ 5 Seat In Danger of 'Flipping' to Democrats: In an election in Arizona's 5th Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth is narrowly ahead of Democrat challenger Harry Mitchell, 48% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Since an identical SurveyUSA KPNX-TV poll released 9/18/06, Hayworth has lost 4 points and Mitchell has gained 5 points. Hayworth had led by 12 points, now leads by 3. Hayworth gets 79% of Republican votes. Mitchell gets 86% of Democrat votes. Independents favor Mitchell 2:1. Hayworth's lead among Republicans has shrunk by 7 points, and Mitchell's lead among Independents has grown by 7 points. Hayworth had led among male voters by 19 points, now he is tied, a 19-point swing. In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in AZ5 has changed from 52% Republican to 48% Republican. See the supplemental analysis box below. Hayworth was first elected to Congress in 1994. The election is in 22 days, on 11/7/06.

Analysis Common To All SurveyUSA Congressional Polls Released 10/16/06: Today, 10/16/06, SurveyUSA releases election polls in 4 Congressional Districts: Arizona 5, California 50, Minnesota 2, and New Mexico 1. In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:
1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.

Filtering: 700 Registered Voters from Arizona's 5th Congressional district were interviewed 10/13/06 - 10/15/06. Of them, 509 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 509 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican J.D. Hayworth? Democrat Harry Mitchell? Or Libertarian Warren Severin?

48% Hayworth (R)
45% Mitchell (D)
5% Severin (L)
2% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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