Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10538

Geography Surveyed: OH 2nd Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/14/2006 - 10/16/2006
Release Date: 10/17/2006 11:30 AM ET
Sponsor: WCPO-TV Cincinnati

Schmidt Edges Wulsin, Keeps OH2 House Seat for GOP: In an election for US House of Representatives in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 10/17/06, Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt edges Democrat Victoria Wulsin by 8 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 3 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Schmidt gets 48%. Wulsin gets 40%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/20/06, Schmidt has gained 3 points and Wulsin has lost 2 points. Schmidt had led by 3, now leads by 8. Schmidt leads by 10 points among voters under 35. 4 weeks ago, Wulsin led this group by 6, a 16-point swing. Schmidt leads by 24 points among voters age 35-49, an 18-point improvement. Voters over 50 are evenly split. Schmidt leads by 15 points among men and by 3 points among women. Republicans support Schmidt 6:1. Democrats support Wulsin 12:1. Independents break 4:3 for Wulsin. Schmidt leads by 16 points among voters with household income over $80K, a 15-point improvement. Of those who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance, 82% support Schmidt. Of those who disapprove of Bush's performance, 77% support Wulsin. President Bush's approval rating among likely voters in Ohio's 2nd CD is 51%. In the past month, voter enthusiasm has increased in this district. The percentage of "likely voters" in SurveyUSA's turnout model has increased from 62% to 69% of registered voters. 4 weeks ago, 49% of likely voters identified themselves as Republican, today 53%. 4 weeks ago, 31% of likely voters identified themselves as Democrat; today 29%. Schmidt was first elected to Congress in a special election in 2005.

Filtering: 800 registered voters from Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 10/14/06 - 10/16/06. Of them, 555 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 555 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.2 percentage points.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jean Schmidt? Democrat Victoria Wulsin? Or some other candidate?

48% Schmidt (R)
40% Wulsin (D)
12% Other/Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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