Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17580
Hold Your Breath -- No Telling What May Happen When All Votes Are Counted in WA Murray-Rossi Senate Race: 5 days until voters must return a ballot, much polling and little consensus on whether incumbent Democrat Patty Murray will keep her US Senate seat, or Dino Rossi will snatch it for Republicans as part of a Red Tide, according to SurveyUSA's 4th and final pre-election tracking poll for KING-TV in Seattle. Murray 47%, Rossi 47%, at the wire, and offered with circumspection given the disparate findings of 9 different pollsters attempting to characterize the race.

Republican Rossi has a nominal 2-point advantage among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot. Democrat Murray has a nominal 2-point advantage among voters who tell SurveyUSA they promise to mail back the ballot but have not yet done so. When the 2 groups are combined: tie game. Metro Seattle (which, as always, includes Pierce, Snohomish and King counties) breaks 6:5 Democrat. Eastern WA breaks 4:3 Republican. Western WA breaks 8:7 Republican. Women appear to give Rossi another look at the finish line. Murray's advantage among female voters had been as high as 17 points, now 6. Lower-income voters are 5:4 for Murray. Middle-income voters split. Upper-income voters are 8:7 for Rossi.

This survey includes interviews conducted on cellphones and on home phones. Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Washington adults 10/24/10 through 10/27/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 780 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. In the table that follows, the following short-hand appears: "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were contacted and interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 33% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 67% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 18% of likely voters. Consistent with the findings of some academic research, but less pronounced than SurveyUSA's findings in California, CPO respondents in Washington state are slightly more Democratic than those with home phones. CPO respondents are unpredictable to pollsters; it is unclear to what extent these voters will turn out.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot for US Senate right now, would you vote for Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Patty Murray?
678 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsCPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Rossi (R)47%38%49%49%50%44%43%50%45%49%47%47%49%****41%49%44%90%6%50%85%35%9%89%7%61%41%41%49%48%61%32%38%43%52%62%49%38%77%30%57%36%42%45%51%51%54%42%
Murray (D)47%47%40%48%43%50%46%44%50%47%45%49%46%****48%47%46%6%91%40%11%60%89%8%89%35%39%45%45%49%38%62%58%52%41%36%47%60%20%64%37%58%53%46%45%45%39%51%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%18%15%67%47%53%15%31%30%24%46%54%87%2%3%7%54%46%29%33%35%34%40%19%30%36%19%16%11%40%47%51%10%39%49%51%36%27%37%34%59%47%49%24%40%36%27%22%51%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.