Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17265
Open Seat in WA-03: Republican Herrera Still Atop Democratic Heck, Poised for Take-Away, Days Before Voting Begins: In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington State's 3rd Congressional District today, 10/13/10, Republican Jaime Herrera defeats Democrat Denny Heck 53% to 42%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, little has changed: Herrera is up a nominal point; Heck is down a nominal point. Herrera has led by 13, 9, and now by 11 points in 3 SurveyUSA polls. There is some volatility among women, where Herrera had led by 6, then trailed by 2, now leads by 5, and among the oldest voters, where Herrera had led by 14, then trailed by 2, and now leads by 6. Other demographic groups show less movement, and Herrera maintains double-digit leads among men, voters under age 50, and independents. Heck has some momentum among lower-income voters.

Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.

Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/10/10 through 10/12/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 579 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. 38 of Washington's 39 counties vote solely by mail; ballots will be mailed to voters in 2 days, on 10/15/10.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican Jaime Herrera? Or Democrat Denny Heck?
579 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Jaime Herrera (R)53%57%49%51%57%53%49%55%51%52%****57%95%11%54%89%40%10%95%7%60%45%52%53%69%44%41%81%31%60%38%45%55%
Denny Heck (D)42%39%44%41%38%43%43%39%43%43%****28%3%85%38%7%56%83%2%87%31%47%45%40%27%52%51%15%63%36%55%48%41%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%13%26%38%24%39%61%89%2%2%7%32%33%34%39%35%22%36%37%20%8%51%49%38%23%39%41%56%57%39%33%67%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.