Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12907
 
Florida Democratic Primary is Not Competitive; Giuliani 12 Atop Thompson on GOP Side: In a Republican Primary for President of the United States in Florida today, 84 days to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani finishes 1st at 34%, Fred Thompson is 2nd at 22%, Mitt Romney is 3rd at 17%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa. Giuliani is dominant in South East FL, where he gets 46%, and in South West FL, where he gets 39%. Thompson runs 3 points ahead of Giuliani in North West FL. Thompson runs 8 points ahead of Giuliani in North East FL. Among Conservative Republican primary voters, Giuliani is at 30%, Thompson 22%, Romney 20%. In a Democratic Primary today, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 3:1 and leads John Edwards 4:1. Until something unexpected happens, the Democratic Primary is not competitive.
 
Florida Voters Favor Constitutional Amendment About Property Taxes: Also on the ballot on January 29, for all voters, not just Presidential Primary voters, is a state constitutional amendment about property taxes. Today, 31% of likely voters, including Republicans, Democrats and Independents, are certain to vote Yes on the amendment, 13% are certain to vote No. 56% are not certain. When the 56% who are Not Certain are asked whether they Lean toward voting Yes, lean toward voting No, or do not lean, the results are: 45% Certain Yes, 19% Certain No, 36% Not Certain. The public is not yet focused on this issue, and volatile swings may occur between now and January 29.
 
Filtering: 1,900 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/02/07 through 11/05/07. Of them, 1,656 were registered to vote. Of them, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on the constitutional amendment, 451 were determined to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary for President, and 435 were determined to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary for President.
 
If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?
435 Likely VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Watch Law And Order
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratNo AffilConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost N
Giuliani34%36%32%34%25%37%**34%****30%42%**27%26%30%39%46%33%37%30%37%36%33%38%30%34%
Huckabee8%6%12%8%9%9%**8%****11%3%**8%7%9%5%10%13%5%10%9%7%9%5%6%11%
McCain10%12%7%9%26%8%**10%****10%10%**14%18%12%5%4%12%12%8%9%12%9%10%8%10%
Romney17%17%18%19%19%5%**17%****20%14%**10%8%19%24%17%17%12%19%22%13%20%19%21%15%
Thompson22%23%22%21%11%42%**22%****22%24%**30%34%19%20%20%21%30%22%16%27%19%20%28%21%
Other5%4%6%5%8%0%**5%****5%2%**7%2%7%4%1%3%3%8%4%3%6%5%3%5%
Undecided3%2%4%3%2%0%**3%****2%5%**3%4%3%3%1%2%2%4%4%2%4%3%4%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%58%42%83%5%10%2%100%0%0%57%32%5%10%13%38%18%21%11%31%29%29%42%58%27%21%52%
 
If the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for...(names rotated) Hillary Clinton? John Edwards? Barack Obama? Or some other Democrat?
451 Likely VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Watch Law And Order
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratNo AffilConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost N
Clinton56%50%60%56%41%77%****56%**42%53%57%44%38%60%56%60%55%68%49%53%63%52%57%57%55%
Edwards14%15%14%18%1%0%****14%**12%15%15%25%15%16%14%10%9%14%13%17%12%15%12%21%13%
Obama19%20%17%11%56%21%****19%**22%20%19%15%27%14%18%21%29%17%24%11%21%17%16%15%21%
Other9%11%7%11%0%0%****9%**19%9%7%14%9%8%9%7%1%1%9%16%1%13%11%6%7%
Undecided3%4%2%3%2%1%****3%**5%3%1%2%11%2%3%2%5%1%4%2%3%3%3%1%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%43%57%74%14%10%2%0%100%0%12%43%28%8%10%28%19%34%12%23%30%34%36%64%36%18%45%
 
Also on the ballot is a constitutional amendment about property taxes. On the property tax amendment, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
1017 Likely VotersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Watch Law And Order
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratNo AffilConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost N
Yes31%33%29%31%41%21%**32%27%42%34%32%26%31%28%32%41%24%24%24%39%32%24%36%33%36%28%
No13%14%12%11%10%24%**11%14%14%11%14%17%16%12%12%7%17%15%15%13%10%15%11%11%15%13%
Not Certain56%54%59%58%49%55%**56%59%44%55%54%57%53%60%56%52%58%61%61%48%58%61%53%56%49%59%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%78%10%9%3%43%44%12%32%38%17%9%11%34%19%28%11%28%30%31%39%61%31%20%49%
 
Also on the ballot is a constitutional amendment about property taxes. On the property tax amendment, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {"Not Certain" voters were asked: At this hour, do you lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
1017 Likely Voters Incl LeanersAllGenderRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAge<50 / 50+Watch Law And Order
Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratNo AffilConservaModerateLiberalNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RegularlOccasionAlmost N
Yes45%47%43%46%51%31%**47%41%53%47%44%43%46%41%48%55%35%33%37%50%51%36%50%48%49%41%
No19%18%20%19%12%26%**17%20%19%17%20%21%20%18%18%13%24%22%21%18%17%21%17%20%19%18%
Not Certain36%35%38%36%37%43%**36%39%28%35%36%36%34%40%35%32%41%45%43%32%32%43%32%32%31%41%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Incl Leaners100%49%51%78%10%9%3%43%44%12%32%38%17%9%11%34%19%28%11%28%30%31%39%61%31%20%49%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.