Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26362
 
Nationwide Debate Over Gun Laws Appears to Impact New York Republican Primary for Governor...

One Week From NY Gubernatorial Primary, Kathy Hochul Easily Defeats Democratic Rivals, But Will She Face Zeldin or Giuliani in November?

7 days until votes are counted in the state of New York's primary election for Governor, Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul defeats Long Island congressman Tom Suozzi and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams to capture her party's nomination, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WHEC-TV in Rochester and WNYT-TV in Albany.

Hochul leads Suozzi by 36 points statewide. Suozzi has some strength among those voters who will be focused on criminal justice reform when voting this fall, where he takes 29% of the vote to Hochul's 46%; among the small number of Democratic primary voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in 2020, where he and Hochul are effectively tied; and at home on Long Island, where he takes 27% to Hochul's 52%.

Hochul leads Williams by 43 points statewide. Williams sees stronger support among African Americans, where he takes 17% to Hochul's 48%; among conservative Democratic primary voters, where he takes 16% to Hochul's 53%; and among voters under age 50, where he takes 16% to Hochul's 51%.

Things on the Republican side are much less settled, with Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin and former Trump White House Aide Andrew Giuliani battling for every vote during this final week of campaigning. Today, Zeldin takes 25% of votes in the Republican primary, Giuliani 23%, with businessman Harry Wilson further back with 13%, and former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino trailing with 8%. 31% of likely primary voters say they are undecided.

Zeldin leads by 6 points among men; Giuliani leads by 5 among women – an 11-point gender gap. Younger – and typically less-reliable – primary voters back the former NYC mayor's son by 11 points; seniors – typically the most likely to vote – prefer Zeldin by 10. White voters lean Zeldin by 5 points; Hispanics prefer Giuliani by 7. Zeldin 6-point advantage among conservatives, Giuliani a 9-point lead among moderates. Zeldin has a slim edge among those who tell SurveyUSA they are 100% certain to vote in the primary; Giuliani has a slim edge among those who say they are likely to vote.

Regionally, Giuliani leads by double-digits in NYC and and the Hudson Valley; Zeldin leads by double-digits in Western New York, the Capital Region, the North Country, on Long Island, and by an overwhelming 41 points in the Mohawk Valley.

On the issues voters say will influence their vote this fall, Zeldin has advantages among those focused on jobs, inflation, and criminal justice reform, while Giuliani has a strong 24-point advantage among the 1 in 10 Republican primary voters who say they are most focused on guns. Giuliani leads by 6 points among those who strongly support a ban on assault rifles, by 2 points among those who somewhat support a ban; Zeldin leads by 18 among those who somewhat oppose and by 4 among those who strongly oppose a ban.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 3,500 New York adults online 06/15/22 through 06/20/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 2,987 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 538 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/28/22 Republican primary; 1,002 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/28/22 Democratic primary. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of New York?
3500 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary VLikely November Top November Issue2020 VoteGun HHAR BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegionRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainLikelyCertainJobsInflatioHealthcaClimate CriminalAbortionGunsTrumpBidenYesNoStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNYCNYC subuUpstateNYCLong IslHudson VCapital Mohawk VCentral Finger LWestern SouthernNorth Co
Yes85%86%85%78%85%88%93%81%90%89%83%82%75%92%89%85%89%91%90%85%89%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%**100%100%100%96%95%91%84%87%85%85%88%78%86%93%78%85%93%92%78%85%87%82%85%86%86%85%86%85%82%****89%85%****
No14%12%15%20%15%11%6%18%9%10%14%17%25%8%10%13%11%9%9%13%10%-----------4%4%9%15%12%14%14%10%20%13%7%20%13%7%8%20%14%12%17%14%13%13%14%13%13%17%****11%14%****
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%31%24%25%21%55%45%59%14%16%11%10%18%36%16%10%28%36%26%24%38%24%48%11%32%11%5%12%6%13%28%47%20%80%57%17%11%10%39%23%38%34%34%31%54%46%44%39%17%42%21%38%42%12%9%6%4%5%7%9%3%3%
 
2The state of New York will hold primary elections for Governor and other offices on June 28th. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a primary. Would you say you are ... ?
2987 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary VLikely November Top November Issue2020 VoteGun HHAR BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegionRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainLikelyCertainJobsInflatioHealthcaClimate CriminalAbortionGunsTrumpBidenYesNoStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNYCNYC subuUpstateNYCLong IslHudson VCapital Mohawk VCentral Finger LWestern SouthernNorth Co
Certain Not To Vote9%9%8%7%9%8%10%8%9%9%10%8%8%7%9%9%9%7%8%9%8%0%0%3%8%5%5%4%**8%5%8%9%7%10%8%9%6%7%11%10%9%7%8%11%7%9%8%7%10%9%8%11%8%8%12%10%12%**9%7%8%****
Unlikely To Vote8%7%8%11%8%6%6%10%6%8%9%6%10%5%9%8%8%4%7%8%7%0%0%5%3%3%4%2%**3%1%2%8%5%7%8%6%13%8%7%8%9%7%9%8%6%6%10%7%9%6%7%9%8%7%7%11%8%**12%12%6%****
Maybe 50% / 50%18%18%17%26%18%15%10%23%12%16%19%23%20%10%15%23%16%13%13%23%15%0%0%16%4%7%10%6%**9%7%8%13%17%16%18%16%24%19%14%20%23%13%22%19%12%13%24%17%18%19%17%17%18%17%16%20%21%**20%18%18%****
Likely To Vote24%22%25%24%25%24%22%24%23%22%25%25%31%21%25%24%26%19%24%24%24%100%0%65%11%33%29%34%**29%25%33%23%26%20%25%24%23%26%23%25%22%24%25%22%24%23%25%25%25%20%26%25%21%26%28%20%19%**24%22%23%****
100% Certain To Vote38%41%35%28%37%44%45%32%44%43%34%28%29%55%40%32%40%57%45%32%46%0%100%9%73%52%50%53%**50%57%49%43%43%44%37%41%30%38%43%30%34%48%29%36%48%46%27%40%35%41%40%35%38%40%34%35%37%**34%37%41%****
Not Sure4%2%6%4%2%3%7%3%5%3%3%11%2%2%2%4%1%1%2%4%1%0%0%3%1%0%2%0%**2%5%1%3%2%2%4%4%3%3%2%7%4%2%7%3%2%2%6%4%3%5%2%3%7%2%3%4%4%**2%4%5%****
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%28%24%25%23%52%48%61%14%15%10%11%19%36%17%10%29%36%27%24%38%24%48%11%32%11%5%12%6%13%31%52%21%79%58%17%11%10%35%24%41%31%34%34%58%42%44%40%16%41%21%38%41%12%9%5%4%5%8%9%3%3%
 
3Are you registered to vote as a ... ?
1851 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary VLikely November Top November Issue2020 VoteGun HHAR BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegionRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainLikelyCertainJobsInflatioHealthcaClimate CriminalAbortionGunsTrumpBidenYesNoStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNYCNYC subuUpstateNYCLong IslHudson VCapital Mohawk VCentral Finger LWestern SouthernNorth Co
Republican29%32%26%21%22%35%36%22%36%35%9%29%15%61%66%19%5%2%64%19%4%24%32%25%32%26%40%14%11%38%22%23%75%5%47%24%18%33%50%65%35%29%25%27%31%29%34%21%18%35%45%15%39%41%15%44%32%******40%39%****
Democrat54%52%56%60%58%53%46%59%50%51%74%58%43%31%22%55%87%91%25%55%89%51%56%50%56%62%44%63%77%41%66%64%11%81%38%59%71%47%15%19%43%51%62%51%50%59%52%58%65%48%37%69%44%41%69%43%44%******40%46%****
Another Party 4%5%3%3%2%5%4%3%5%4%4%1%5%5%6%5%1%1%6%5%1%3%4%4%3%4%4%3%1%5%3%4%5%3%4%4%2%2%11%5%5%5%3%4%5%3%3%4%3%4%6%3%3%5%3%2%4%******8%4%****
No Party Affiliation11%10%13%14%14%6%12%14%9%9%9%9%33%3%4%21%5%5%4%21%5%19%6%18%8%5%11%19%8%15%10%8%8%9%8%12%8%15%23%11%13%12%9%15%12%8%10%13%12%12%9%10%14%11%10%10%19%******9%8%****
Not Sure2%2%2%2%3%2%1%3%1%1%3%2%4%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%3%1%3%1%3%1%0%3%1%0%2%1%1%2%2%2%4%2%1%3%2%1%3%2%1%1%3%2%1%3%3%1%2%3%1%2%******3%3%****
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%24%24%28%25%47%53%64%13%13%10%13%19%32%18%13%32%32%31%38%62%29%65%12%31%12%5%12%6%13%33%58%22%78%61%14%11%11%31%21%48%27%33%40%65%35%45%39%16%44%20%36%44%12%8%5%3%5%7%10%3%3%
 
4If you were filling out your ballot in the Republican primary for Governor of New York State today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
538 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary VLikely November Top November Issue2020 VoteGun HHAR BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegionRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainLikelyCertainJobsInflatioHealthcaClimate CriminalAbortionGunsTrumpBidenYesNoStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNYCNYC subuUpstateNYCLong IslHudson VCapital Mohawk VCentral Finger LWestern SouthernNorth Co
Rob Astorino8%7%10%8%8%8%9%8%9%9%**3%**8%9%10%****8%10%**8%9%9%9%6%9%4%**13%**9%8%12%8%9%8%12%6%10%3%14%10%7%6%11%9%8%9%9%6%6%11%8%6%3%26%6%8%9%14%9%1%**
Andrew Giuliani23%21%26%24%24%24%21%24%23%19%**38%**26%19%26%****22%26%**26%22%26%22%18%22%27%**16%**36%23%17%17%26%27%21%18%21%26%20%22%21%24%23%22%27%32%21%18%38%27%14%38%30%21%14%9%23%14%5%16%**
Harry Wilson13%16%10%20%12%12%11%16%12%14%**8%**15%14%11%****14%11%**10%15%12%14%21%13%24%**11%**14%12%25%18%11%14%15%9%16%12%14%14%10%14%15%14%12%19%9%15%17%4%17%17%3%5%17%18%12%15%15%25%**
Lee Zeldin25%27%21%13%25%24%31%19%28%24%**31%**30%27%17%****28%17%**23%25%24%26%30%28%24%**27%**12%27%7%27%24%21%19%36%25%32%19%20%30%19%26%25%24%15%30%25%18%31%24%18%41%9%33%50%17%22%25%9%**
Undecided31%28%33%35%31%31%27%33%29%34%**21%**21%32%37%****28%37%**34%29%29%30%25%29%21%**33%**29%29%38%30%31%30%33%31%29%26%33%33%31%37%25%31%29%25%31%37%21%27%36%21%22%38%30%15%40%35%46%49%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%55%45%17%18%34%31%36%64%78%4%13%5%27%44%21%3%1%72%21%4%32%68%24%71%11%43%6%2%16%4%10%84%10%35%65%37%16%19%25%38%21%41%25%35%40%75%25%29%47%25%23%27%51%23%18%9%5%6%7%10%13%5%4%
 
5If you were filling out your ballot in the Democratic primary for Governor of New York State today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
1002 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely Primary VLikely November Top November Issue2020 VoteGun HHAR BanEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegionRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Very ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalLikelyCertainLikelyCertainJobsInflatioHealthcaClimate CriminalAbortionGunsTrumpBidenYesNoStronglySomewhatSomewhatStronglyHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNYCNYC subuUpstateNYCLong IslHudson VCapital Mohawk VCentral Finger LWestern SouthernNorth Co
Kathy Hochul54%58%50%48%55%54%60%51%57%59%48%43%50%70%37%47%59%57%53%47%58%46%58%44%59%53%51%64%69%46%64%58%30%57%61%53%56%47%****53%46%57%53%50%57%59%46%56%51%55%52%51%59%52%52%49%******68%56%****
Thomas Suozzi18%17%18%16%18%19%17%17%18%17%15%25%12%10%22%24%16%13%16%24%15%21%15%20%16%14%22%9%11%29%13%20%28%16%14%18%17%19%****21%17%16%17%18%18%17%18%16%22%9%17%23%15%17%27%18%******11%19%****
Jumaane Williams11%12%10%16%16%6%6%16%6%9%17%14%10%14%18%8%9%16%16%8%12%12%11%12%10%15%11%14%10%7%5%6%15%11%15%10%9%17%****7%13%12%10%13%10%11%12%16%7%2%16%4%5%16%3%6%******5%4%****
Undecided17%14%21%21%11%20%17%16%19%15%20%18%27%6%23%21%16%14%15%21%15%21%16%24%15%18%17%13%11%18%18%16%27%17%10%19%17%17%****19%24%14%20%20%14%13%24%12%20%34%15%22%21%15%18%28%******17%21%****
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%48%52%26%26%27%21%52%48%61%18%14%8%7%8%32%29%21%15%32%50%36%64%27%68%13%25%14%7%9%7%15%7%87%15%85%79%12%3%4%25%20%55%26%30%44%62%38%54%35%11%57%16%27%57%10%6%4%1%2%6%8%3%3%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.