Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12446
 
In California, Giuliani Now 2:1 Atop Thompson; Clinton 2:1 Atop Obama:
 
GOP Primary: Rudolph Giuliani gets 39% of GOP votes in a California Republican Primary today, twice as many as undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, who gets 19%. Significance? In SurveyUSA's 3 most recent California tracking polls, from May, June and July, undeclared candidate Newt Gingrich was named explicitly. In today's 08/06/07 release, Gingrich was not named explicitly. Conventional wisdom is that with Gingrich not named, Thompson's support should go up, since the two occupy the same spot on the political dancefloor. But Thompson's support did not go up. It stayed just where it was last month, at 19%, and down 2% from its peak, in June, of 21%. Instead, Giuliani's support went up, by 7 points, from 32% on 07/02/07 to 39% today. John McCain, who was 2nd in May and tied for 2nd in June and July, is trending down, and is now in 3rd place. Mitt Romney, running 4th, still has no traction in California. Among Conservative Republican primary voters, Giuliani's support went up 10 points from July to August, from 26% to 36%. Conservative support for Thompson, McCain and Romney was all flat month-on-month, indicating that the 8% of Conservatives who voted for Gingrich in July almost all voted for Giuliani in August.
 
Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in California today, 08/06/07, Hillary Clinton gets 51% of the vote, her strongest showing in the 6 monthly tracking polls conducted so far by SurveyUSA, and the first time Clinton has finished above 50%. Barack Obama runs a distant 2nd, at 27%, largely unchanged from Obama's finish in previous SurveyUSA polls. John Edwards has flatlined in California, at 14% today, unchanged from June and July. Clinton now leads among female Demcratic primary voters by 41 points. She gets 62% of female votes in an 8-person field. In May and June, Obama ran ahead of Clinton among male Democrats, but in July and again today in August, Clinton leads among men by 4 points. Clinton has never led in California by fewer than 13 points in 6 SurveyUSA tracking polls, and today lads by 24 points.
 
Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/02/07 through 08/05/07. Of them, 1,810 were registered to vote. Of them, SurveyUSA identified 520 as likely to vote in the CA GOP Primary and identified 764 as likely to vote in the CA Democratic Primary. Only "likely voters" were asked the candidate preference question. In the Democratic Primary, voters were read a list of 3 candidates or asked if they prefer "some other Democrat." In the Republican Primary, voters were read a list of 4 candidates or asked if they prefer "some other Republican."
 
If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?
520 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Giuliani39%39%40%38%**43%44%36%46%37%41%32%35%47%43%38%43%34%48%37%44%39%39%42%37%42%41%40%46%37%41%38%42%38%38%38%50%42%39%38%40%40%39%38%43%38%38%40%
McCain16%17%15%16%**16%15%18%13%10%17%15%19%14%22%10%14%21%14%17%19%16%18%15%19%14%17%16%13%20%12%18%15%16%14%22%12%18%17%15%15%17%15%22%14%20%11%15%
Romney10%11%9%11%**9%10%12%10%3%11%18%12%9%10%13%11%10%13%10%12%11%8%13%12%10%11%10%8%12%9%12%9%10%10%13%8%12%10%10%11%11%10%4%15%8%12%11%
Fred Thompson19%18%20%19%**17%16%23%15%13%20%6%21%14%13%26%18%22%17%19%9%22%22%15%21%18%22%10%23%19%14%18%21%20%20%17%15%11%21%24%18%17%21%2%19%19%27%18%
Other11%12%9%10%**9%13%8%11%31%7%20%9%11%9%11%10%9%6%11%13%9%9%11%7%10%5%20%5%8%20%10%10%14%12%5%11%14%7%10%13%10%12%27%4%11%8%13%
Undecided4%3%7%5%**6%2%4%5%7%4%9%4%4%4%2%3%5%3%5%4%4%4%5%3%5%4%3%4%4%4%5%3%2%6%5%3%4%6%4%3%5%4%8%5%5%3%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%60%40%72%2%18%9%54%33%8%83%8%55%42%54%39%61%34%26%74%21%74%45%52%32%65%64%25%25%52%21%54%43%26%39%21%14%23%31%26%21%53%47%10%23%27%19%21%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?
764 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 3.6 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Clinton51%38%62%43%38%64%59%57%51%49%48%51%64%48%51%48%50%54%49%52%47%57%47%52%51%51%50%53%**52%51%50%52%51%55%57%42%49%59%46%48%54%47%48%53%58%45%48%
Obama27%34%21%26%57%20%23%15%27%30%25%26%18%29%27%24%28%22%23%29%30%22%25%28%26%27%27%28%**29%27%28%27%20%27%17%33%29%23%30%23%26%27%28%29%21%31%23%
Edwards14%18%10%19%2%12%6%15%14%14%12%15%9%15%14%17%14%14%18%12%15%12%19%13%13%14%16%12%**11%15%14%15%16%10%21%14%13%11%15%18%12%16%19%9%12%16%18%
Other6%8%4%7%2%4%5%9%6%4%16%4%8%5%5%9%5%9%6%5%4%8%8%4%9%4%6%6%**4%5%4%5%11%5%5%4%5%4%5%10%5%7%3%5%5%5%10%
Undecided3%2%4%4%1%0%7%3%3%3%0%4%0%3%3%2%2%1%3%3%4%1%1%3%0%3%3%2%**3%2%4%1%2%3%0%6%5%2%3%1%3%3%2%4%4%2%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%43%57%49%9%32%10%9%50%36%12%74%19%79%89%7%84%11%34%65%60%34%22%76%22%76%26%57%2%16%81%49%48%15%42%15%28%27%30%28%16%57%43%12%29%22%21%16%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.