A week before ballots are mailed in the special election to fill the open seat vacated by Democratic congressman David Wu, voters in Oregon's 1st Congressional District appear ready to keep a Democrat in the seat, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV news in Portland.

Democrat Suzanne Bonamici has 50%, Republican Rob Cornilles 39%, in a poll conducted 12/22/11 through 01/04/12, released 27 days until votes are counted.

Cornilles has a Plus 4 Net Favorability rating. Bonamici has a Plus 20 Net Favorability rating.

Bonamici's lead comes entirely from those age 50+. The two candidates are tied among those age 49 and younger. The older the turnout on election day, the more Bonamici will out-perform these numbers.

Independents split. Moderates break 5:4 Democrat.

Bonamici leads 9:1 among those who say same-sex couples should be given full legal recognition. Cornilles leads 5:3 among those who say same-sex couples should be given no recognition.

Bonamici leads among lower-income and upper-income voters; the two are effectively even among middle-income voters.

Less educated voters vote Republican. Those with some college split. Those with a 4-year college degree vote 5:3 Democrat.

61% of the district is pro-choice, and among pro-choice voters, Bonamici leads 4:1.

Cell-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Oregon's 1st congressional district, who have a history of voting in past congressional elections. Of the registered voters, 504 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the special election. All voting is done by U.S. mail; votes are counted on 01/31/12. 23% of the registered voters and 15% of the likely voters for this survey are unreachable on a home telephone, and were interviewed by SurveyUSA on a smartphone, laptop or other electronic device, using a visual questionnaire. In this survey, cell respondents are slightly more Republican than are landline respondents.