| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14700 |
| In Oregon, Obama Pulls Away At the Finish, Dragging Merkley With Him. With half of Oregon poll respondents telling SurveyUSA they have already voted, Democrats Barack Obama and Jeff Merkley appear poised, 8 days till the counting begins, to win Oregon elections for President and US Senator, according to research conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland. Today, it's Obama 57%, Republican John McCain 38%; compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Obama is flat, McCain down 2. Obama leads 2:1 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. In the US Senate race, Merkley defeats incumbent Republican Gordon Smith 49% to 42% today; Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 5%. Merkley is up 3 points in the past 2 weeks; Smith is up 1. Merkley leads by 10 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, by 2 among those who have not yet voted but promise to. If Smith does not carry by 5:4 the votes of those in Oregon who have not yet voted, this is a pick-up for the Democrats in the US Senate. 800 Oregon adults were interviewed 10/25/08 and 10/26/08. Of them 736 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 are included in the likely voter mix. |
 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 672 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Portland | Rest of | Actual V | Likely V | |
| McCain (R) | 38% | 41% | 34% | 24% | 45% | 39% | 41% | 36% | 40% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 39% | ** | 18% | ** | 82% | 9% | 32% | 81% | 25% | 6% | 38% | 38% | 57% | 38% | 20% | 71% | 19% | 53% | 22% | 33% | 41% | 33% | 47% | 34% | 42% |
| Obama (D) | 57% | 55% | 60% | 68% | 52% | 56% | 54% | 59% | 55% | 59% | 54% | 56% | 56% | ** | 75% | ** | 12% | 88% | 56% | 13% | 69% | 90% | 58% | 56% | 36% | 57% | 76% | 23% | 77% | 42% | 73% | 61% | 55% | 60% | 51% | 62% | 52% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | ** | 7% | ** | 2% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | ** | 0% | ** | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 23% | 30% | 27% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 11% | 41% | 88% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 33% | 47% | 19% | 30% | 42% | 24% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 25% | 39% | 36% | 62% | 49% | 48% | 41% | 59% | 66% | 34% | 50% | 50% |
 | Voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Gordon Smith? Democrat Jeff Merkley? Or Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow? |
| 672 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Age | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | Already Voted? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | < Obama | > McCain | > In Bet | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Portland | Rest of | Actual V | Likely V | |
| Gordon Smith (R) | 42% | 45% | 39% | 33% | 47% | 43% | 46% | 41% | 44% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 43% | ** | 32% | ** | 80% | 17% | 37% | 77% | 35% | 12% | 44% | 40% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 69% | 27% | 54% | 29% | 35% | 47% | 39% | 49% | 41% | 44% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | 49% | 46% | 51% | 55% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 50% | 47% | 50% | 45% | 48% | 49% | ** | 66% | ** | 12% | 78% | 43% | 13% | 55% | 83% | 49% | 48% | 32% | 47% | 65% | 21% | 65% | 35% | 64% | 55% | 45% | 51% | 44% | 51% | 46% |
| Dave Brownlow (C) | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | ** | 0% | ** | 5% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 4% | ** | 2% | ** | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 23% | 30% | 27% | 20% | 54% | 46% | 47% | 11% | 41% | 88% | 1% | 6% | 5% | 33% | 47% | 19% | 30% | 42% | 24% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 25% | 39% | 36% | 62% | 49% | 48% | 41% | 59% | 66% | 34% | 50% | 50% |