| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26640 |
| Missouri Amendment 3, Which Would Legalize Recreational Use of Marijuana, Tax its Sale, and Expunge Records Likely to Pass:
Missouri voters appear poised to legally allow the recreational use of marijuana when votes are counted next week, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling for Gray Television's Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; and KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA), and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS. Amendment 3 passes today with 61% of likely voters saying they are certain they will vote yes, 28% certain they will vote no, and 11% saying they are not certain. When those uncertain voters are asked how they lean, 43% lean toward yes, 16% toward no; 41% remain uncertain; recombining those leaners' votes produces Q5 below, showing 66% voting yes, 29% voting no, and 4% undecided. The measure needs a simple majority of votes to pass. Support for the measure is strong across the board, with opposition concentrated among very conservative voters, 56% of whom initially vote no (58% after leaners are included). Among senior citizens, 46% initially vote yes, 38% initially vote no; when leaners are included, a majority of seniors support the measure, 53% to 41%. Among Republicans, 50% initially vote yes, 39% no; when leaners are included, 54% support, 41% oppose. A majority of all other demographic groups, and a majority in all regions of the state, say they will vote yes on the measure. While opposition to ballot measures tends to increase as Election Day nears, SurveyUSA notes there is little tightening here, with 'yes' leading 'no' by a 40-point margin in mid-September, and by 33 points today. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 Missouri adults online 10/27/22 through 11/01/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 991 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 791 were determined to be likely to vote or to already have cast their ballots in the November 8 general election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Missouri? |
| 1200 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Top Issue | Confidence Vote Counted Accurate | Claim Election Stolen | Overturning Roe | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | Absolute | Already | Inflatio | Health C | Abortion | Crime / | Immigrat | Investig | Gun Poli | Full | Some | Little | None | More Lik | Less Lik | No Diffe | Agree | Disagree | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Yes | 83% | 82% | 83% | 68% | 82% | 90% | 92% | 75% | 91% | 83% | 86% | 72% | 90% | 93% | 76% | 90% | 93% | 83% | 86% | 89% | 92% | 83% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ** | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 86% | 93% | 96% | 74% | 84% | 92% | 75% | 85% | 92% | 89% | 70% | 84% | 86% | 78% | 80% | 80% | 78% | 89% | 80% |
| No | 16% | 17% | 15% | 27% | 17% | 9% | 8% | 22% | 9% | 15% | 10% | 26% | 9% | 6% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 12% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 10% | 27% | 14% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 10% | 18% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 22% | 52% | 48% | 80% | 11% | 9% | 38% | 27% | 24% | 14% | 21% | 33% | 12% | 7% | 36% | 33% | 19% | 18% | 56% | 5% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 24% | 41% | 30% | 33% | 48% | 44% | 29% | 41% | 29% | 30% | 40% | 35% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 19% | 44% | 36% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 34% | 12% |
| 2 | Missouri will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 991 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Top Issue | Confidence Vote Counted Accurate | Claim Election Stolen | Overturning Roe | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | Absolute | Already | Inflatio | Health C | Abortion | Crime / | Immigrat | Investig | Gun Poli | Full | Some | Little | None | More Lik | Less Lik | No Diffe | Agree | Disagree | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Not Interested / Will Not Vote | 5% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Not Sure Will Have Time | 12% | 11% | 13% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 6% | 18% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 19% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 10% |
| Almost Certain | 18% | 18% | 19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 8% | 24% | 13% | 18% | 25% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 22% | 19% | 25% | 11% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 23% | 13% | 25% | 22% | 21% | 8% | 37% | 15% | 26% | 37% | ** | 15% | 23% | 27% | 13% | 22% | 15% | 18% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 20% | 19% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 19% | 20% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 23% |
| Absolutely Certain | 56% | 60% | 53% | 36% | 51% | 64% | 71% | 44% | 67% | 59% | 47% | 43% | 64% | 57% | 53% | 73% | 61% | 52% | 52% | 63% | 66% | 52% | 56% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 75% | 70% | 68% | 68% | 70% | 75% | 57% | 76% | 70% | 57% | ** | 78% | 67% | 71% | 66% | 54% | 65% | 61% | 46% | 57% | 67% | 49% | 57% | 65% | 62% | 42% | 48% | 57% | 60% | 60% | 58% | 57% | 55% | 49% |
| Already Voted | 5% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 13% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 2% | 17% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 17% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 6% | ** | 7% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 6% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 47% | 53% | 22% | 25% | 29% | 24% | 47% | 53% | 81% | 11% | 7% | 41% | 30% | 22% | 16% | 24% | 33% | 13% | 8% | 40% | 33% | 20% | 18% | 56% | 5% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 24% | 41% | 30% | 34% | 50% | 49% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 28% | 72% | 28% | 20% | 46% | 34% | 15% | 17% | 20% | 36% | 12% |
 | Missourians will also vote on a ballot measure, Amendment 3, which would ...
|
| 791 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Top Issue | Confidence Vote Counted Accurate | Claim Election Stolen | Overturning Roe | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | Absolute | Already | Inflatio | Health C | Abortion | Crime / | Immigrat | Investig | Gun Poli | Full | Some | Little | None | More Lik | Less Lik | No Diffe | Agree | Disagree | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Certain To Vote Yes | 61% | 61% | 62% | 83% | 73% | 55% | 46% | 77% | 51% | 60% | 74% | 63% | 50% | 79% | 58% | 33% | 56% | 66% | 86% | 94% | 47% | 66% | 89% | 69% | 58% | 68% | 56% | 70% | 74% | 42% | 40% | 73% | 66% | 67% | 58% | 57% | ** | 58% | 69% | 54% | 45% | 74% | 51% | 74% | 60% | 69% | 57% | 68% | 61% | 55% | 56% | 78% | 72% | 63% | 53% | 59% | 66% | 61% | 57% | 74% |
| Certain To Vote No | 28% | 31% | 24% | 11% | 19% | 34% | 38% | 16% | 36% | 29% | 17% | 31% | 39% | 14% | 26% | 56% | 31% | 24% | 9% | 1% | 41% | 24% | 6% | 23% | 30% | 23% | 31% | 20% | 17% | 45% | 57% | 22% | 28% | 23% | 32% | 27% | ** | 33% | 20% | 36% | 44% | 17% | 38% | 15% | 27% | 22% | 33% | 20% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 12% | 19% | 26% | 34% | 29% | 25% | 27% | 30% | 23% |
| Not Certain | 11% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 8% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 16% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 16% | ** | 9% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 13% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 24% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 59% | 83% | 11% | 6% | 45% | 33% | 21% | 18% | 25% | 32% | 13% | 8% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 23% | 70% | 7% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 24% | 41% | 30% | 37% | 51% | 51% | 38% | 33% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 37% | 30% | 77% | 23% | 18% | 48% | 34% | 15% | 17% | 20% | 36% | 11% |
| 4 | Right now on Amendment 3, do you lean toward yes? Lean toward no? Or not lean? |
| 87 Not Certain On Amendment 3 | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Top Issue | Confidence Vote Counted Accurate | Claim Election Stolen | Overturning Roe | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 12.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | Absolute | Already | Inflatio | Health C | Abortion | Crime / | Immigrat | Investig | Gun Poli | Full | Some | Little | None | More Lik | Less Lik | No Diffe | Agree | Disagree | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Lean Toward Yes | 43% | 58% | 34% | 43% | 45% | 35% | 48% | 45% | 42% | 44% | 29% | ** | 38% | 39% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 48% | 80% | ** | 45% | 48% | 60% | 34% | 47% | 9% | 33% | 71% | 18% | 43% | ** | ** | ** | 35% | 48% | 52% | ** | 57% | 38% | 37% | 56% | 37% | 46% | 41% | 40% | 55% | 37% | 40% | 39% | 50% | 43% | 42% | 38% | 36% | 53% | 52% | 45% | 46% | 41% | ** |
| Lean Toward No | 16% | 6% | 22% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 0% | ** | 21% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 20% | ** | 18% | 18% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 0% | 18% | 0% | 7% | 29% | ** | ** | ** | 17% | 10% | 21% | ** | 23% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 13% | 10% | 24% | 18% | 10% | 19% | 21% | 17% | 15% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 30% | 16% | 14% | ** |
| Not Lean | 41% | 35% | 44% | 39% | 41% | 47% | 36% | 40% | 41% | 38% | 71% | ** | 42% | 49% | 36% | 32% | 39% | 35% | 0% | ** | 36% | 35% | 16% | 48% | 36% | 91% | 49% | 29% | 75% | 28% | ** | ** | ** | 49% | 42% | 27% | ** | 20% | 46% | 48% | 25% | 44% | 36% | 47% | 51% | 21% | 45% | 50% | 42% | 28% | 40% | 43% | 50% | 45% | 33% | 35% | 25% | 38% | 45% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Not Certain On Amendment 3 | 100% | 38% | 62% | 10% | 19% | 33% | 39% | 28% | 72% | 87% | 9% | 4% | 46% | 22% | 30% | 18% | 31% | 28% | 7% | 4% | 48% | 28% | 10% | 17% | 78% | 6% | 41% | 7% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 35% | 36% | 23% | 3% | 19% | 41% | 28% | 36% | 42% | 53% | 37% | 40% | 26% | 35% | 38% | 31% | 31% | 80% | 20% | 14% | 46% | 39% | 17% | 15% | 22% | 43% | 4% |
| 5 | [This version of the Amendment 3 question includes the revised answers of those who are leaning toward yes or no.]
Missourians will also vote on a ballot measure, Amendment 3, which would ...
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| 791 Likely November Voters, Leaners Included | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely Voter | Top Issue | Confidence Vote Counted Accurate | Claim Election Stolen | Overturning Roe | 2020 Vote | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | Absolute | Already | Inflatio | Health C | Abortion | Crime / | Immigrat | Investig | Gun Poli | Full | Some | Little | None | More Lik | Less Lik | No Diffe | Agree | Disagree | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Northern | Kansas C | Southwes | St. Loui | Southeas | |
| Certain To Vote Yes | 66% | 66% | 67% | 85% | 77% | 59% | 53% | 80% | 56% | 65% | 77% | 65% | 54% | 82% | 66% | 39% | 62% | 70% | 90% | 95% | 52% | 70% | 92% | 72% | 64% | 69% | 60% | 77% | 76% | 48% | 43% | 76% | 68% | 70% | 63% | 65% | ** | 63% | 74% | 58% | 51% | 78% | 56% | 79% | 65% | 74% | 61% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 61% | 82% | 75% | 67% | 60% | 65% | 70% | 66% | 62% | 74% |
| Certain To Vote No | 29% | 31% | 27% | 12% | 20% | 36% | 41% | 17% | 38% | 31% | 17% | 33% | 41% | 14% | 28% | 58% | 33% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 43% | 26% | 7% | 24% | 32% | 23% | 34% | 20% | 17% | 49% | 57% | 22% | 30% | 25% | 33% | 30% | ** | 35% | 21% | 37% | 46% | 18% | 40% | 16% | 28% | 24% | 35% | 21% | 31% | 37% | 34% | 14% | 20% | 29% | 36% | 30% | 28% | 29% | 32% | 23% |
| Not Certain | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | ** | 2% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters, Leaners Included | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 24% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 59% | 83% | 11% | 6% | 45% | 33% | 21% | 18% | 25% | 32% | 13% | 8% | 43% | 32% | 22% | 23% | 70% | 7% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 40% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 24% | 41% | 30% | 37% | 51% | 51% | 38% | 33% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 37% | 30% | 77% | 23% | 18% | 48% | 34% | 15% | 17% | 20% | 36% | 11% |