Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27377

Behind the Numbers: Trump, Vance See Improved Net Favorability Scores From North Carolina's Voters, While Harris, Walz Decline;
Voters Split on Which Candidate Will Better Rebuild After Helene; Slightest of Upswings in Family Economic Outlooks Over Next Year:

SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for WRAL-TV in Raleigh shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 47% each, analyzed in detail in this separate report. Looking here at some of the factors behind those numbers ...

While Harris and running mate Tim Walz continue to have slightly higher Net Favorability numbers than their Republican counterparts do, Trump and JD Vance have seen improvements in their numbers since SurveyUSA asked the identical questions in September, while Harris and Walz have lost ground.

Harris, at +4 in September, when 50% had a favorable opinion of her and 46% a negative opinion, today is at an even score of 0, with 48% having a favorable view and 48% an unfavorable view of the Vice President.
Trump, at -9 in September, with 44% having a favorable and 53% a negative opinion, improves 7 points to -2 today, with 46% viewing him favorably and 48% unfavorably.
Walz, who had been at +5 with 40% seeing him in a favorable light and 35% unfavorably today is 2 points lower, at +3, with 39% seeing him favorably and 36% unfavorably.
Vance, at -6 in the previous poll, when 35% had a favorable opinion and 41% had an unfavorable opinion of him, today improves to -1, with 38% viewing him favorably, 39% unfavorably.

Some issues may have changed which candidate voters choose to support:

8% of those who say they will vote for Kamala Harris, as well as 3% of those who will vote for Donald Trump, say Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records have changed who they support for President. 16% of all voters (19% of Trump's compared to 14% of Harris') say the convictions don't change who they vote for, but do make them more supportive of their candidate. 18% of all voters (7% of Trump's, 29% of Harris') say the convictions don't change their vote but make them less supportive of their candidate. Another 8% (1% of Trump's voters, 15% of Harris') say it makes them less likely to vote at all. 52% overall, including 70% of Trump's voters and 34% of Harris', say it doesn't affect their voting plans at all.
7% of likely voters, including 9% of Trump voters and 5% of Harris voters say the Biden/Harris administration's response to the conflict in Israel and Gaza changes who they will vote for. 17% of voters say this does not change who they vote for, but make them more supportive of their respective candidate, including 10% of Trump supporters and 26% of Harris supporters. 28% of voters say it does not change their vote but makes them less supportive of their candidate, including 34% of Trump voters and 21% of Harris voters. 8% say the restrictions make them less likely to vote at all; 40% say it will not affect their voting plans.
8% say the events at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, change who they vote for (4% of Trump voters, 12% of Harris voters). 22% say the events of that day make them more supportive of their candidate (30% of Harris voters, 15% of Trump voters). 15% overall say it makes them less supportive of their candidate, including 8% of Trump voters and 20% of Harris voters. 4% say it makes them less likely to vote; 51% say it has no effect.
10% say the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene changes who they support (14% of Trump voters, 7% of Harris voters). 31% say it does not change their vote, but makes them more supportive of their candidate (effectively identical for each candidate). 9% say it makes them less supportive (also roughly equal). 4% say it makes them less likely to vote at all; 46% say it has no effect.

47% of likely voters say they believe Donald Trump is the candidate who will be best able to help rebuild Western North Carolina; 46% say it's Kamala Harris; 7% are not sure.

Last, 48% of North Carolina adults say they are optimistic about the economic outlook for their own family over the next year, up slightly from 45% in September. 32% are pessimistic, down fractionally from 33%. 20% just aren't sure. 65% of Harris voters say they are optimistic, compared to 41% of Trump voters; 21% of Harris voters say they are pessimistic, compared to 42% of Trump voters.

Fully crosstabbed results follow ...

About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 North Carolina adults 10/23/24 through 10/26/24. Of the adults, 929 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 853 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote.

1	Are you registered to vote in the state of North Carolina?

1050 Adults	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Yes	88%	91%	86%	77%	86%	88%	93%	92%	83%	88%	93%	92%	85%	92%	89%	91%	89%	76%	92%	87%	90%	91%	100%	100%	100%	93%	94%	88%	93%	91%	84%	92%	91%	88%	89%	89%	92%	88%	89%	100%	100%	95%	97%	100%	100%	100%	93%	86%	91%	87%	90%	88%	82%	93%	91%	84%	91%	93%	90%	86%	90%	88%	88%	92%	89%	91%	86%	91%	85%	91%	90%	89%	81%
No	11%	9%	12%	22%	11%	11%	7%	8%	15%	11%	7%	8%	13%	7%	10%	8%	7%	23%	8%	12%	9%	8%	-	-	-	7%	6%	11%	6%	8%	15%	7%	8%	11%	10%	11%	8%	11%	11%	-	-	5%	3%	-	-	-	6%	13%	8%	12%	9%	11%	16%	7%	8%	15%	8%	6%	9%	13%	9%	10%	11%	8%	11%	8%	12%	9%	13%	8%	10%	10%	17%
Not Sure	1%	0%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	1%	2%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	4%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	-	-	-	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	-	-	0%	0%	-	-	-	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	2%	0%	2%	0%	1%	1%	2%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Adults	100%	48%	52%	11%	19%	24%	24%	22%	29%	24%	24%	22%	53%	47%	64%	20%	8%	8%	31%	33%	9%	11%	35%	47%	10%	35%	34%	23%	35%	33%	27%	17%	20%	38%	11%	11%	37%	38%	22%	47%	47%	39%	37%	11%	60%	27%	41%	57%	33%	66%	21%	77%	35%	32%	33%	43%	36%	21%	66%	34%	20%	43%	37%	10%	10%	20%	22%	17%	20%	34%	20%	28%	18%

2	North Carolina will vote to elect a U.S. president, a governor and other statewide officeholders in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you?

929 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Already Voted	35%	32%	38%	36%	29%	26%	34%	50%	31%	26%	34%	50%	29%	42%	38%	32%	28%	28%	38%	37%	24%	39%	100%	0%	0%	39%	39%	26%	40%	39%	26%	47%	35%	28%	41%	40%	41%	28%	40%	39%	41%	38%	38%	58%	53%	1%	36%	34%	29%	39%	32%	36%	29%	34%	41%	32%	34%	42%	41%	24%	36%	35%	35%	39%	33%	33%	36%	27%	42%	33%	32%	36%	42%
Certain To Vote	47%	48%	46%	29%	44%	51%	56%	43%	39%	51%	56%	43%	45%	50%	49%	45%	37%	50%	48%	49%	50%	41%	0%	100%	0%	47%	45%	51%	46%	46%	54%	42%	52%	48%	43%	47%	47%	48%	45%	53%	49%	51%	51%	32%	41%	84%	46%	48%	54%	44%	53%	46%	45%	46%	50%	43%	52%	47%	48%	46%	47%	47%	47%	45%	48%	47%	47%	52%	43%	50%	49%	45%	43%
Probably Vote	10%	11%	9%	21%	12%	10%	6%	6%	15%	10%	6%	6%	13%	6%	7%	11%	16%	20%	7%	7%	15%	7%	0%	0%	100%	8%	10%	10%	8%	9%	12%	6%	7%	12%	10%	10%	7%	12%	10%	8%	10%	5%	8%	10%	7%	15%	11%	9%	9%	10%	7%	10%	12%	10%	7%	11%	8%	9%	7%	15%	9%	10%	10%	7%	11%	12%	8%	11%	8%	10%	14%	7%	7%
50/50 Chance	6%	6%	5%	11%	10%	9%	2%	1%	11%	9%	2%	1%	10%	1%	4%	7%	19%	1%	3%	5%	7%	7%	0%	0%	0%	4%	4%	11%	4%	3%	5%	4%	3%	8%	2%	2%	3%	8%	2%	-	-	4%	2%	-	-	-	5%	5%	5%	6%	5%	5%	9%	6%	2%	9%	4%	1%	3%	11%	5%	5%	6%	4%	7%	6%	5%	8%	4%	3%	3%	10%	6%
Probably Will Not	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	0%	3%	3%	2%	0%	3%	1%	2%	4%	0%	1%	2%	2%	3%	5%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	4%	1%	1%	2%	2%	-	-	1%	1%	-	-	-	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	0%	4%	2%	0%	1%	4%	3%	2%	2%	5%	1%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%
Not Sure	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	-	-	0%	0%	-	-	-	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	9%	18%	24%	26%	23%	27%	24%	26%	23%	51%	49%	64%	20%	9%	7%	32%	32%	9%	11%	35%	47%	10%	37%	36%	23%	37%	35%	26%	18%	21%	38%	11%	11%	38%	38%	22%	47%	47%	42%	40%	11%	60%	27%	43%	55%	34%	66%	21%	77%	32%	34%	34%	41%	37%	22%	67%	33%	21%	43%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	18%	19%	34%	21%	28%	17%

If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Donald Trump (R)	47%	50%	43%	38%	51%	41%	49%	49%	47%	41%	49%	49%	44%	49%	62%	13%	27%	20%	65%	59%	17%	10%	47%	48%	37%	94%	5%	36%	95%	2%	39%	79%	71%	40%	11%	9%	74%	40%	10%	100%	0%	93%	6%	45%	48%	47%	57%	39%	46%	47%	45%	47%	54%	47%	40%	43%	54%	42%	52%	36%	29%	43%	61%	32%	26%	48%	38%	64%	58%	44%	51%	41%	57%
Kamala Harris (D)	47%	44%	50%	50%	41%	54%	45%	45%	44%	54%	45%	45%	49%	45%	33%	82%	67%	58%	31%	35%	79%	84%	50%	45%	46%	4%	92%	47%	4%	96%	43%	20%	25%	52%	82%	80%	23%	52%	81%	0%	100%	5%	91%	49%	48%	44%	36%	55%	47%	47%	44%	48%	42%	45%	52%	53%	40%	49%	42%	59%	67%	50%	32%	66%	69%	46%	55%	28%	35%	47%	44%	55%	37%
Other	2%	2%	2%	1%	5%	1%	2%	1%	4%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	8%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	0%	6%	0%	0%	6%	0%	1%	3%	0%	6%	1%	3%	3%	0%	0%	1%	0%	1%	2%	2%	3%	1%	3%	2%	3%	2%	0%	4%	1%	3%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	4%	1%	2%	1%	1%	4%
Undecided	4%	4%	5%	11%	3%	5%	4%	4%	6%	5%	4%	4%	5%	4%	4%	3%	5%	15%	3%	5%	3%	3%	1%	5%	15%	1%	3%	12%	1%	2%	12%	1%	4%	5%	7%	4%	2%	5%	6%	0%	0%	2%	2%	5%	2%	8%	4%	4%	4%	4%	8%	3%	4%	3%	6%	2%	5%	7%	5%	4%	1%	5%	5%	1%	2%	5%	5%	4%	6%	6%	5%	4%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

What is your opinion of Kamala Harris?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Very Favorable	33%	29%	37%	36%	28%	35%	33%	35%	31%	35%	33%	35%	33%	34%	21%	64%	47%	42%	18%	25%	58%	68%	39%	32%	19%	3%	71%	23%	3%	75%	20%	20%	18%	29%	55%	73%	19%	29%	64%	1%	70%	3%	66%	41%	34%	29%	25%	39%	33%	33%	34%	33%	31%	32%	35%	40%	28%	31%	29%	42%	53%	32%	23%	52%	55%	26%	38%	19%	27%	32%	34%	37%	29%
Somewhat Favorable	15%	16%	14%	21%	14%	19%	16%	9%	16%	19%	16%	9%	18%	12%	14%	20%	14%	14%	14%	13%	24%	16%	12%	14%	28%	4%	19%	27%	4%	20%	25%	1%	9%	25%	25%	6%	5%	25%	16%	4%	25%	5%	23%	13%	15%	15%	13%	16%	14%	15%	11%	16%	14%	12%	18%	14%	14%	18%	14%	18%	15%	18%	11%	16%	13%	19%	18%	11%	11%	16%	11%	18%	11%
Neutral	3%	4%	3%	2%	2%	6%	2%	3%	2%	6%	2%	3%	4%	3%	3%	2%	11%	4%	4%	2%	3%	1%	1%	4%	10%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	6%	2%	3%	3%	5%	1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	1%	3%	2%	8%	3%	3%	4%	2%	4%	3%	6%	3%	4%	5%	1%	6%	3%	1%	2%	6%	3%	3%	4%	5%	1%	3%	3%	4%	5%	2%	5%	5%	1%
Somewhat Unfavorable	10%	10%	9%	10%	18%	5%	10%	7%	15%	5%	10%	7%	10%	9%	11%	6%	8%	10%	11%	11%	5%	6%	7%	10%	17%	13%	3%	13%	12%	2%	16%	5%	14%	12%	8%	5%	10%	12%	6%	15%	2%	13%	5%	6%	9%	13%	9%	10%	8%	11%	13%	9%	7%	10%	12%	7%	9%	15%	11%	7%	8%	10%	9%	7%	9%	10%	11%	12%	7%	9%	13%	6%	12%
Very Unfavorable	38%	40%	35%	24%	38%	34%	38%	46%	33%	34%	38%	46%	33%	42%	51%	8%	19%	20%	52%	49%	9%	7%	40%	40%	21%	74%	3%	33%	77%	1%	33%	71%	56%	30%	6%	10%	63%	30%	8%	76%	1%	75%	4%	31%	39%	39%	48%	30%	41%	36%	34%	39%	42%	40%	32%	33%	46%	33%	43%	25%	20%	35%	51%	20%	21%	39%	30%	54%	48%	38%	38%	33%	45%
Unfamiliar	1%	1%	1%	8%	0%	1%	1%	0%	3%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	9%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	6%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	4%	1%	1%	3%	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	0%	2%	1%	0%	0%	3%	0%	0%	3%	3%	0%	0%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Very Favorable	31%	35%	26%	25%	36%	30%	30%	30%	32%	30%	30%	30%	31%	30%	40%	7%	25%	16%	46%	34%	8%	6%	37%	29%	17%	67%	1%	18%	69%	1%	16%	68%	39%	22%	5%	7%	53%	22%	6%	65%	0%	64%	2%	36%	31%	29%	40%	24%	33%	30%	31%	31%	40%	29%	24%	33%	34%	23%	34%	22%	18%	27%	42%	25%	10%	35%	19%	41%	43%	32%	31%	25%	37%
Somewhat Favorable	15%	15%	16%	13%	16%	15%	18%	13%	15%	15%	18%	13%	15%	16%	18%	12%	10%	7%	17%	19%	12%	12%	11%	19%	14%	20%	9%	19%	20%	7%	20%	9%	32%	15%	7%	5%	21%	15%	6%	26%	6%	25%	6%	12%	15%	17%	16%	15%	17%	14%	15%	16%	15%	18%	13%	14%	16%	17%	15%	16%	15%	13%	19%	14%	15%	8%	17%	23%	14%	12%	16%	17%	19%
Neutral	3%	4%	3%	8%	6%	2%	1%	3%	7%	2%	1%	3%	4%	2%	2%	3%	9%	7%	4%	1%	4%	1%	1%	3%	10%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	4%	4%	1%	5%	2%	1%	2%	5%	1%	1%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	5%	2%	3%	3%	3%	5%	3%	2%	4%	3%	4%	2%	3%	2%	6%	5%	3%	2%	6%	4%	5%	2%	1%	3%	4%	4%	3%	2%
Somewhat Unfavorable	8%	9%	8%	14%	12%	8%	7%	6%	12%	8%	7%	6%	11%	7%	8%	9%	8%	16%	5%	10%	13%	5%	6%	9%	16%	6%	8%	13%	5%	7%	15%	6%	6%	11%	6%	10%	6%	11%	8%	5%	8%	5%	10%	6%	7%	13%	8%	9%	11%	7%	12%	8%	7%	9%	9%	8%	7%	12%	8%	9%	12%	7%	9%	14%	9%	7%	7%	9%	8%	7%	8%	8%	12%
Very Unfavorable	40%	34%	45%	33%	27%	44%	43%	45%	29%	44%	43%	45%	36%	44%	32%	63%	47%	47%	28%	35%	53%	71%	44%	38%	36%	4%	73%	47%	4%	76%	43%	12%	18%	45%	79%	73%	15%	45%	76%	2%	79%	4%	75%	40%	42%	37%	34%	45%	34%	43%	36%	41%	34%	37%	48%	39%	39%	43%	38%	44%	50%	48%	25%	41%	60%	43%	53%	21%	29%	42%	38%	46%	29%
Unfamiliar	2%	3%	2%	7%	3%	1%	1%	4%	4%	1%	1%	4%	3%	2%	1%	8%	1%	7%	0%	1%	10%	6%	2%	2%	7%	0%	6%	1%	0%	5%	1%	1%	4%	2%	1%	5%	2%	2%	3%	0%	4%	0%	3%	3%	2%	0%	0%	4%	2%	3%	1%	2%	1%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	3%	4%	1%	2%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

What is your opinion of Tim Walz?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Very Favorable	21%	19%	22%	19%	17%	18%	22%	24%	18%	18%	22%	24%	18%	23%	17%	33%	24%	19%	16%	18%	28%	38%	27%	20%	2%	4%	40%	18%	3%	44%	14%	12%	6%	16%	43%	57%	9%	16%	50%	3%	42%	3%	42%	25%	22%	18%	17%	24%	16%	23%	19%	21%	21%	17%	23%	23%	20%	18%	20%	22%	26%	23%	15%	29%	22%	24%	22%	9%	21%	22%	18%	21%	20%
Somewhat Favorable	18%	15%	20%	24%	16%	23%	14%	15%	19%	23%	14%	15%	21%	15%	17%	22%	15%	15%	15%	19%	16%	26%	15%	18%	23%	7%	25%	25%	7%	26%	22%	7%	13%	22%	27%	21%	10%	22%	24%	6%	29%	7%	28%	11%	20%	16%	15%	19%	21%	16%	16%	18%	13%	15%	24%	14%	19%	22%	17%	20%	27%	19%	11%	23%	32%	13%	24%	14%	9%	14%	17%	23%	16%
Neutral	15%	15%	14%	21%	14%	17%	15%	9%	16%	17%	15%	9%	17%	12%	12%	14%	23%	25%	15%	10%	18%	11%	11%	15%	27%	15%	13%	15%	15%	11%	18%	11%	17%	19%	10%	5%	14%	19%	7%	15%	11%	14%	9%	20%	13%	16%	16%	13%	15%	14%	21%	13%	14%	18%	12%	18%	12%	14%	13%	17%	16%	15%	14%	16%	16%	13%	16%	17%	11%	14%	15%	19%	8%
Somewhat Unfavorable	9%	10%	8%	8%	14%	8%	9%	6%	12%	8%	9%	6%	10%	8%	11%	5%	5%	8%	12%	10%	7%	3%	7%	10%	8%	12%	6%	9%	11%	5%	12%	4%	13%	12%	3%	4%	9%	12%	3%	13%	4%	13%	6%	12%	7%	13%	7%	10%	10%	9%	9%	9%	8%	8%	10%	4%	11%	13%	10%	6%	9%	10%	8%	10%	8%	9%	11%	12%	4%	11%	10%	6%	7%
Very Unfavorable	27%	30%	23%	13%	21%	20%	28%	41%	18%	20%	28%	41%	19%	34%	34%	12%	15%	6%	37%	32%	19%	7%	34%	24%	13%	51%	6%	19%	53%	5%	20%	57%	44%	16%	6%	1%	50%	16%	4%	52%	4%	52%	6%	22%	30%	23%	32%	22%	24%	28%	25%	27%	27%	30%	23%	23%	30%	26%	33%	13%	12%	23%	38%	13%	12%	31%	16%	41%	36%	24%	28%	22%	36%
Unfamiliar	12%	10%	13%	15%	18%	14%	12%	4%	17%	14%	12%	4%	15%	8%	9%	13%	18%	28%	5%	12%	11%	15%	5%	13%	27%	12%	10%	14%	12%	9%	14%	9%	7%	14%	12%	13%	8%	14%	12%	11%	10%	10%	8%	9%	9%	14%	13%	11%	15%	10%	10%	11%	16%	13%	7%	18%	8%	7%	7%	23%	10%	10%	14%	10%	10%	11%	10%	8%	19%	14%	11%	8%	12%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

What is your opinion of JD Vance?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Very Favorable	23%	26%	20%	16%	21%	18%	23%	31%	19%	18%	23%	31%	19%	27%	31%	5%	15%	11%	34%	27%	3%	7%	32%	19%	9%	46%	4%	16%	49%	4%	13%	57%	30%	14%	3%	6%	43%	14%	5%	46%	3%	46%	4%	20%	25%	20%	28%	20%	25%	22%	23%	23%	27%	23%	20%	21%	26%	22%	27%	13%	14%	20%	32%	17%	10%	28%	12%	29%	35%	26%	21%	17%	29%
Somewhat Favorable	15%	17%	14%	12%	14%	16%	20%	12%	13%	16%	20%	12%	14%	16%	18%	8%	16%	10%	21%	15%	11%	5%	11%	18%	19%	22%	7%	15%	21%	6%	20%	10%	29%	17%	4%	6%	20%	17%	5%	25%	7%	25%	7%	13%	15%	19%	16%	14%	15%	15%	15%	16%	17%	14%	15%	15%	15%	16%	17%	12%	13%	15%	17%	13%	12%	13%	18%	25%	10%	14%	16%	17%	16%
Neutral	14%	12%	16%	27%	21%	17%	9%	6%	23%	17%	9%	6%	20%	8%	12%	17%	20%	14%	11%	13%	19%	16%	11%	14%	23%	16%	12%	13%	14%	11%	17%	8%	14%	17%	17%	10%	11%	17%	13%	13%	11%	13%	11%	18%	12%	17%	15%	13%	15%	13%	20%	12%	12%	19%	11%	12%	14%	16%	13%	17%	18%	14%	12%	18%	18%	10%	17%	10%	14%	14%	10%	18%	13%
Somewhat Unfavorable	10%	13%	8%	15%	12%	13%	8%	8%	13%	13%	8%	8%	13%	8%	9%	10%	17%	19%	11%	7%	13%	7%	7%	13%	13%	7%	13%	12%	7%	13%	11%	11%	7%	12%	9%	12%	9%	12%	10%	6%	13%	7%	13%	15%	7%	15%	8%	13%	14%	8%	9%	11%	11%	8%	12%	9%	14%	7%	9%	13%	13%	11%	8%	17%	8%	11%	11%	13%	4%	10%	14%	7%	13%
Very Unfavorable	29%	25%	33%	17%	21%	26%	32%	39%	19%	26%	32%	39%	22%	35%	25%	46%	22%	31%	21%	29%	44%	47%	37%	26%	15%	2%	53%	37%	1%	57%	32%	7%	14%	30%	63%	58%	11%	30%	61%	2%	58%	2%	56%	27%	35%	19%	25%	32%	21%	33%	26%	30%	20%	29%	37%	31%	24%	33%	30%	26%	35%	32%	23%	27%	43%	29%	35%	20%	26%	27%	31%	34%	23%
Unfamiliar	8%	7%	10%	13%	11%	11%	7%	3%	12%	11%	7%	3%	11%	5%	6%	14%	9%	16%	3%	9%	10%	18%	3%	10%	20%	7%	11%	6%	7%	9%	7%	7%	6%	10%	5%	8%	6%	10%	7%	7%	8%	6%	8%	6%	6%	10%	8%	8%	10%	8%	7%	8%	13%	7%	6%	11%	7%	5%	4%	19%	8%	9%	8%	7%	9%	9%	8%	3%	12%	10%	8%	7%	6%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

Do each of the following things change who you support in the upcoming elections? Not change who you support, but makes you more supportive of your preferred candidate? Not change who you support, but makes you less supportive of your preferred candidate? Make you less likely to vote at all? Or not affect your voting plans or preferences at all?

Donald Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Changes Support	6%	6%	5%	5%	8%	6%	6%	3%	7%	6%	6%	3%	6%	5%	5%	6%	4%	8%	5%	5%	8%	5%	4%	7%	3%	4%	6%	7%	4%	6%	7%	6%	5%	6%	5%	4%	5%	6%	5%	3%	8%	4%	8%	4%	6%	6%	5%	6%	6%	5%	6%	5%	6%	3%	7%	4%	8%	4%	5%	7%	7%	5%	6%	11%	3%	4%	5%	4%	7%	6%	6%	6%	4%
More Supportive	16%	18%	14%	20%	19%	14%	17%	12%	19%	14%	17%	12%	17%	15%	17%	12%	19%	7%	22%	13%	9%	16%	18%	16%	10%	21%	12%	13%	22%	15%	8%	19%	17%	11%	24%	20%	18%	11%	22%	19%	14%	20%	14%	14%	17%	15%	16%	16%	15%	16%	14%	17%	14%	14%	19%	12%	16%	22%	17%	13%	19%	18%	12%	21%	16%	21%	14%	12%	12%	18%	14%	13%	19%
Less Supportive	18%	17%	19%	24%	19%	21%	18%	14%	21%	21%	18%	14%	21%	16%	14%	21%	39%	33%	12%	15%	20%	21%	15%	17%	33%	7%	28%	19%	6%	28%	23%	8%	13%	27%	19%	17%	11%	27%	18%	7%	29%	7%	29%	19%	16%	24%	18%	18%	19%	18%	25%	17%	17%	18%	20%	19%	17%	20%	17%	22%	24%	21%	12%	21%	28%	19%	22%	13%	11%	18%	18%	21%	14%
Less Likely To Vote	8%	10%	7%	17%	8%	9%	5%	8%	11%	9%	5%	8%	10%	7%	4%	17%	13%	19%	5%	3%	20%	15%	10%	6%	15%	2%	16%	7%	2%	17%	6%	6%	7%	8%	9%	16%	7%	8%	13%	1%	15%	1%	13%	10%	7%	8%	8%	9%	10%	7%	7%	8%	9%	9%	7%	11%	5%	8%	6%	13%	11%	10%	5%	11%	11%	15%	5%	4%	6%	9%	8%	8%	7%
Has No Effect	52%	49%	55%	34%	46%	50%	54%	62%	42%	50%	54%	62%	46%	58%	60%	43%	24%	33%	56%	64%	43%	44%	53%	54%	39%	65%	38%	54%	66%	35%	56%	61%	58%	48%	43%	43%	60%	48%	43%	70%	34%	68%	36%	53%	55%	47%	54%	51%	49%	54%	47%	54%	54%	55%	48%	54%	54%	45%	55%	45%	39%	47%	65%	35%	43%	41%	53%	68%	63%	50%	53%	52%	55%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

The way the Biden/Harris administration has responded to the conflict in Israel and Gaza?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Changes Support	7%	6%	7%	5%	8%	9%	6%	6%	7%	9%	6%	6%	8%	6%	6%	8%	7%	12%	6%	5%	4%	12%	6%	8%	5%	8%	7%	6%	9%	5%	6%	10%	3%	9%	1%	7%	6%	9%	4%	9%	5%	8%	6%	6%	6%	8%	7%	6%	10%	5%	13%	5%	10%	6%	5%	7%	6%	8%	5%	11%	8%	6%	7%	10%	6%	5%	7%	5%	8%	6%	7%	7%	7%
More Supportive	17%	18%	15%	13%	21%	16%	18%	14%	19%	16%	18%	14%	17%	16%	12%	32%	25%	6%	14%	10%	33%	31%	20%	15%	13%	10%	28%	9%	9%	30%	9%	15%	18%	15%	13%	26%	17%	15%	20%	10%	26%	11%	26%	14%	18%	16%	15%	18%	15%	17%	16%	17%	18%	18%	14%	21%	16%	11%	15%	21%	25%	14%	15%	30%	20%	15%	13%	15%	14%	16%	16%	15%	22%
Less Supportive	28%	29%	27%	34%	31%	32%	27%	21%	32%	32%	27%	21%	32%	24%	31%	15%	25%	39%	31%	31%	22%	10%	25%	29%	35%	33%	21%	30%	30%	20%	35%	24%	36%	29%	25%	22%	31%	29%	23%	34%	21%	32%	24%	22%	29%	29%	32%	25%	34%	25%	35%	27%	24%	27%	32%	21%	31%	34%	29%	27%	32%	32%	21%	32%	33%	33%	32%	22%	19%	29%	30%	30%	20%
Less Likely To Vote	8%	9%	8%	12%	9%	8%	8%	8%	10%	8%	8%	8%	9%	8%	10%	5%	6%	7%	9%	10%	7%	3%	8%	9%	10%	15%	3%	6%	16%	3%	5%	15%	12%	6%	5%	4%	13%	6%	4%	15%	2%	14%	3%	12%	8%	8%	9%	8%	9%	8%	6%	9%	7%	10%	8%	6%	10%	10%	10%	5%	6%	7%	11%	8%	4%	8%	5%	11%	12%	7%	9%	8%	10%
Has No Effect	40%	37%	43%	35%	31%	35%	42%	51%	32%	35%	42%	51%	34%	46%	41%	40%	36%	37%	40%	43%	34%	44%	41%	40%	38%	34%	41%	49%	36%	42%	45%	36%	30%	41%	55%	41%	33%	41%	49%	33%	45%	35%	41%	46%	39%	39%	37%	43%	32%	45%	31%	42%	42%	39%	40%	45%	37%	37%	42%	36%	28%	41%	46%	20%	36%	38%	43%	47%	46%	41%	39%	40%	40%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

Events at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Changes Support	8%	10%	6%	3%	10%	7%	9%	8%	8%	7%	9%	8%	7%	9%	8%	10%	1%	14%	10%	5%	11%	10%	6%	10%	8%	5%	9%	14%	4%	9%	13%	4%	7%	12%	7%	6%	5%	12%	7%	4%	12%	5%	12%	6%	7%	12%	7%	9%	9%	8%	12%	7%	11%	6%	7%	7%	8%	10%	8%	9%	12%	7%	7%	15%	10%	10%	5%	8%	5%	7%	10%	10%	6%
More Supportive	22%	21%	22%	24%	26%	22%	18%	21%	25%	22%	18%	21%	24%	19%	20%	29%	20%	21%	21%	18%	27%	31%	27%	19%	17%	19%	30%	15%	18%	33%	10%	21%	19%	18%	37%	26%	20%	18%	31%	15%	30%	16%	30%	34%	23%	15%	19%	24%	23%	21%	22%	22%	20%	15%	29%	23%	19%	24%	23%	18%	25%	22%	18%	29%	21%	25%	20%	12%	24%	21%	23%	20%	23%
Less Supportive	15%	15%	16%	21%	12%	19%	12%	16%	15%	19%	12%	16%	17%	14%	12%	18%	26%	31%	10%	14%	17%	19%	12%	15%	28%	8%	22%	17%	8%	20%	19%	10%	10%	20%	14%	23%	10%	20%	18%	8%	20%	9%	19%	11%	14%	19%	14%	17%	14%	16%	17%	14%	14%	16%	16%	16%	14%	16%	13%	20%	20%	17%	11%	18%	23%	16%	18%	11%	11%	17%	12%	14%	19%
Less Likely To Vote	4%	5%	3%	4%	5%	6%	4%	2%	5%	6%	4%	2%	5%	3%	3%	3%	9%	7%	5%	2%	2%	4%	7%	2%	5%	3%	6%	3%	3%	6%	3%	3%	5%	5%	5%	2%	4%	5%	3%	2%	6%	2%	7%	7%	4%	3%	5%	3%	6%	3%	4%	4%	2%	5%	5%	3%	4%	6%	3%	6%	6%	4%	3%	8%	3%	3%	5%	5%	2%	3%	4%	7%	2%
Has No Effect	51%	49%	53%	48%	47%	46%	57%	52%	48%	46%	57%	52%	47%	55%	58%	39%	43%	28%	54%	61%	43%	36%	48%	54%	43%	66%	33%	52%	67%	32%	53%	62%	59%	45%	37%	44%	60%	45%	40%	71%	31%	69%	32%	42%	52%	51%	55%	47%	48%	52%	45%	53%	53%	58%	42%	51%	55%	44%	53%	47%	37%	49%	60%	30%	44%	46%	52%	64%	57%	52%	50%	50%	51%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

11	The recent devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Changes Support	10%	11%	10%	8%	15%	10%	11%	7%	13%	10%	11%	7%	12%	9%	11%	10%	6%	10%	13%	9%	5%	14%	10%	11%	9%	15%	7%	7%	15%	7%	8%	16%	9%	10%	5%	11%	12%	10%	8%	14%	7%	13%	8%	17%	9%	10%	10%	11%	12%	9%	19%	8%	13%	11%	8%	10%	11%	10%	11%	9%	13%	8%	11%	15%	10%	9%	7%	9%	13%	11%	8%	12%	8%
More Supportive	31%	31%	31%	30%	24%	31%	35%	32%	26%	31%	35%	32%	28%	34%	29%	37%	44%	17%	28%	31%	45%	31%	33%	32%	22%	33%	35%	19%	33%	38%	19%	33%	37%	27%	31%	27%	36%	27%	29%	31%	33%	31%	34%	26%	33%	30%	32%	30%	35%	29%	32%	31%	34%	29%	30%	36%	27%	30%	31%	32%	31%	33%	29%	38%	22%	32%	34%	25%	33%	30%	35%	31%	27%
Less Supportive	9%	11%	6%	13%	14%	9%	8%	5%	13%	9%	8%	5%	11%	7%	8%	11%	6%	13%	10%	6%	13%	10%	8%	8%	14%	6%	10%	11%	6%	8%	13%	5%	10%	10%	6%	9%	8%	10%	8%	7%	9%	8%	9%	5%	9%	10%	10%	8%	12%	7%	12%	8%	9%	10%	8%	7%	9%	10%	8%	12%	11%	8%	8%	13%	10%	12%	4%	9%	8%	9%	7%	11%	7%
Less Likely To Vote	4%	4%	5%	12%	8%	5%	2%	1%	9%	5%	2%	1%	7%	2%	5%	2%	8%	5%	3%	6%	4%	1%	4%	4%	7%	5%	5%	3%	5%	4%	3%	2%	5%	7%	2%	3%	4%	7%	3%	5%	3%	4%	4%	7%	4%	5%	4%	5%	5%	4%	4%	5%	5%	4%	4%	4%	7%	1%	5%	4%	5%	6%	3%	2%	7%	5%	7%	4%	2%	5%	6%	2%	4%
Has No Effect	46%	44%	47%	38%	39%	45%	44%	55%	39%	45%	44%	55%	42%	49%	47%	39%	36%	55%	46%	49%	34%	44%	45%	46%	47%	41%	43%	60%	41%	42%	57%	44%	38%	46%	57%	49%	41%	46%	53%	42%	48%	43%	45%	44%	46%	45%	45%	46%	36%	50%	33%	49%	39%	45%	51%	43%	46%	48%	46%	44%	40%	46%	48%	31%	51%	43%	49%	52%	44%	44%	44%	44%	54%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

12	Which presidential candidate do you think will best be able to help rebuild western North Carolina after Hurricane Helene's impact?

853 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Donald Trump (R)	47%	51%	43%	38%	55%	41%	50%	46%	50%	41%	50%	46%	45%	48%	60%	16%	27%	28%	64%	57%	17%	14%	47%	49%	36%	92%	7%	37%	93%	3%	39%	78%	69%	39%	11%	18%	73%	39%	14%	95%	2%	91%	8%	45%	48%	47%	57%	39%	48%	46%	47%	47%	53%	49%	40%	43%	53%	42%	52%	36%	32%	42%	61%	34%	30%	47%	36%	65%	58%	45%	50%	39%	59%
Kamala Harris (D)	46%	43%	49%	48%	38%	51%	44%	46%	42%	51%	44%	46%	46%	45%	33%	77%	60%	59%	30%	36%	77%	77%	49%	44%	44%	6%	88%	46%	4%	92%	43%	19%	24%	51%	82%	77%	22%	51%	80%	2%	94%	5%	88%	48%	47%	42%	36%	53%	44%	47%	45%	46%	41%	44%	51%	52%	37%	49%	41%	56%	62%	50%	32%	63%	60%	44%	57%	28%	34%	46%	43%	53%	36%
Not Sure	7%	7%	8%	14%	6%	8%	6%	7%	9%	8%	6%	7%	8%	7%	6%	7%	13%	13%	6%	7%	5%	8%	4%	7%	20%	3%	5%	18%	3%	4%	18%	3%	7%	10%	7%	5%	5%	10%	6%	3%	3%	4%	4%	7%	5%	10%	6%	8%	8%	7%	8%	7%	6%	7%	9%	5%	9%	9%	7%	8%	6%	8%	7%	3%	10%	9%	7%	7%	8%	8%	8%	8%	5%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	49%	51%	9%	17%	23%	27%	25%	26%	23%	27%	25%	48%	52%	66%	20%	8%	7%	33%	33%	9%	11%	38%	51%	10%	38%	36%	21%	38%	36%	26%	18%	21%	36%	11%	11%	40%	36%	23%	47%	47%	43%	42%	11%	60%	27%	44%	55%	34%	66%	21%	78%	30%	33%	36%	39%	38%	24%	70%	30%	21%	42%	37%	11%	10%	21%	22%	17%	19%	35%	21%	27%	17%

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economic outlook for your own family over the next year?

1050 Adults	All	Gender		Age					Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Race By Gender				Likely			Party Registration			Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			2024 Presidentia		2020 Vote		Voting Method			Own Gun		Parent		Impacted By Hele		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Urbanicity By Gender						Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian /	White Ma	White Fe	Black Ma	Black Fe	Already	Certain	Probable	Republic	Democrat	Unaffili	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Trump	Harris	Trump	Biden	Mail	Early in	Election	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Urban Me	Urban Wo	Suburban	Suburban	Rural Me	Rural Wo	Charlott	Greensbo	Raleigh	Southern
Optimistic	48%	51%	45%	41%	56%	48%	44%	50%	51%	48%	44%	50%	49%	47%	43%	66%	41%	50%	50%	36%	65%	67%	53%	53%	38%	41%	65%	40%	43%	66%	38%	50%	40%	48%	56%	62%	45%	48%	59%	41%	65%	41%	64%	56%	53%	49%	50%	48%	50%	47%	52%	48%	45%	46%	53%	47%	44%	57%	49%	46%	61%	45%	45%	61%	60%	49%	41%	48%	42%	48%	45%	53%	44%
Pessimistic	32%	31%	32%	40%	30%	29%	34%	31%	34%	29%	34%	31%	32%	32%	37%	13%	28%	42%	36%	38%	10%	16%	30%	31%	44%	42%	22%	29%	41%	20%	37%	34%	37%	32%	26%	31%	35%	32%	28%	42%	21%	42%	22%	34%	30%	34%	34%	31%	35%	31%	32%	32%	31%	30%	35%	26%	38%	33%	34%	28%	24%	35%	33%	25%	23%	32%	37%	34%	32%	32%	33%	27%	39%
Not Sure	20%	17%	23%	18%	14%	23%	22%	20%	16%	23%	22%	20%	19%	21%	20%	20%	31%	8%	14%	26%	25%	17%	17%	16%	18%	17%	13%	31%	16%	13%	25%	16%	23%	21%	17%	7%	20%	21%	12%	17%	14%	18%	14%	9%	17%	17%	15%	22%	15%	23%	17%	20%	24%	24%	12%	27%	18%	10%	17%	25%	15%	20%	23%	14%	17%	18%	22%	18%	26%	20%	22%	21%	17%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Adults	100%	48%	52%	11%	19%	24%	24%	22%	29%	24%	24%	22%	53%	47%	64%	20%	8%	8%	31%	33%	9%	11%	35%	47%	10%	35%	34%	23%	35%	33%	27%	17%	20%	38%	11%	11%	37%	38%	22%	47%	47%	39%	37%	11%	60%	27%	41%	57%	33%	66%	21%	77%	35%	32%	33%	43%	36%	21%	66%	34%	20%	43%	37%	10%	10%	20%	22%	17%	20%	34%	20%	28%	18%