Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26640
 
6 Days Until Votes Counted in Missouri US Senate Race to Replace Retiring Roy Blunt, Republican Schmitt 9 Points Atop Democrat Busch Valentine:

Republican Eric Schmitt defeats Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine 50% to 41% in an election for US Senate in Missouri today, 11/02/22, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for Gray Television's Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; and KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA), and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.

Compared to SurveyUSA's previous polling in September, Schmitt is up 3 points; Busch Valentine is up 5, and the number of undecided voters has fallen by more than half, from 14% to 6%. 3% today say they will vote for another candidate, down from 4%.

Among men, Schmitt had led by 19 points, today leads by 26; among women, Schmitt had led by 4, now trails by 7 points – an 11-point swing to the Democrat, and a 33-point gender gap. There is little poll-on-poll change among the youngest voters, where the race remains effectively tied, while Schmitt moves from a nominal 2-point deficit to a 7-point advantage among 35 to 49 year-old voters. Among those 50 to 64, Busch Valentine improves from a 30-point deficit to a 19-point deficit, and among those 65+, typically the most reliable voters, Valentine had been 13 points behind Schmitt and now trails by just 5 points – movement that is unlikely to overcome Schmitt's advantages. Voters in greater Kansas City have moved toward Schmitt; Busch Valentine had led by 11 points here, now is tied with Schmitt. In Greater St. Louis, Busch Valentine had led by 3, now leads by 9. Elsewhere, Busch Valentine makes small gains but remains far behind in Southwest and Southeast Missouri, while Schmitt adds to his lead in the northern part of the state.

On the issues, Busch Valentine leads by 39 points among the 18% of likely voters who say abortion is the issue that will have the most influence on their vote for US Senate, down from a 43-point lead in the previous poll; Busch Valentine also leads by 27 points among the 8% most focused on healthcare, up from an 8-point advantage, and by 92 points among the 6% who say investigations into former President Trump is their most important issue. Schmitt, however leads by 45 points among the 36% of voters who say inflation and the economy is their top issue, up from 40%; by 21 points among the 7% most-focused on crime, up from 5 points; and by 92 points among the 6% who are most focused on immigration, up from 78 points.

Busch Valentine leads 67% to 30% among the 7% of voters who say they have already cast their ballots, but trails 53% to 39% among the 70% who say they are certain to vote, and by 45% to 39% among the 23% who say they are almost certain to vote.

Full results follow ...
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 Missouri adults online 10/27/22 through 11/01/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 991 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 791 were determined to be likely to vote or to already have cast their ballots in the November 8 general election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Missouri?
1200 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueConfidence Vote Counted AccurateClaim Election StolenOverturning Roe2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioHealth CAbortionCrime / ImmigratInvestigGun PoliFullSomeLittleNoneMore LikLess LikNo DiffeAgreeDisagreeTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Yes83%82%83%68%82%90%92%75%91%83%86%72%90%93%76%90%93%83%86%89%92%83%87%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%**100%100%100%87%86%93%96%74%84%92%75%85%92%89%70%84%86%78%80%80%78%89%80%
No16%17%15%27%17%9%8%22%9%15%10%26%9%6%22%10%6%15%13%9%8%15%12%-----------------13%13%7%3%23%13%8%22%14%8%10%27%14%13%20%18%17%20%10%18%
Not Sure2%1%2%5%1%1%0%3%0%1%4%2%0%1%3%0%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%-----------------1%1%0%1%3%2%0%3%1%1%1%3%2%1%2%3%3%2%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%48%52%27%25%26%22%52%48%80%11%9%38%27%24%14%21%33%12%7%36%33%19%18%56%5%36%8%18%7%6%6%7%40%38%15%5%24%41%30%33%48%44%29%41%29%30%40%35%25%67%33%19%44%36%15%18%21%34%12%
 
2Missouri will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests in November. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you?
991 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueConfidence Vote Counted AccurateClaim Election StolenOverturning Roe2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioHealth CAbortionCrime / ImmigratInvestigGun PoliFullSomeLittleNoneMore LikLess LikNo DiffeAgreeDisagreeTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Not Interested / Will Not Vote5%5%5%11%7%3%0%9%2%4%4%14%3%4%7%2%3%3%9%4%2%3%7%0%0%0%--------------4%5%4%3%8%3%4%7%3%5%4%9%7%4%5%8%5%5%4%5%
Not Sure Will Have Time12%11%13%24%13%8%6%18%7%12%13%15%9%9%14%8%9%16%8%9%9%16%9%0%0%0%--------------9%12%10%6%18%12%7%15%12%9%10%19%16%11%12%11%14%11%13%10%
Almost Certain18%18%19%24%23%17%8%24%13%18%25%12%18%18%20%10%22%19%25%11%17%19%20%100%0%0%23%13%25%22%21%8%37%15%26%37%**15%23%27%13%22%15%18%22%17%15%20%19%15%17%21%19%20%15%17%17%19%17%23%
Absolutely Certain56%60%53%36%51%64%71%44%67%59%47%43%64%57%53%73%61%52%52%63%66%52%56%0%100%0%75%70%68%68%70%75%57%76%70%57%**78%67%71%66%54%65%61%46%57%67%49%57%65%62%42%48%57%60%60%58%57%55%49%
Already Voted5%4%7%2%3%6%11%2%8%5%4%13%4%11%3%7%2%6%5%13%4%6%8%0%0%100%2%17%8%10%9%17%6%9%4%6%**7%10%2%6%6%4%11%4%6%6%5%6%5%6%4%9%6%3%3%5%4%8%6%
Not Sure3%2%4%3%3%2%3%3%2%2%6%3%2%2%3%0%3%4%0%0%2%4%0%0%0%0%--------------1%1%2%1%3%5%0%4%3%1%2%5%2%1%5%1%1%4%2%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%47%53%22%25%29%24%47%53%81%11%7%41%30%22%16%24%33%13%8%40%33%20%18%56%5%36%8%18%7%6%6%7%40%38%15%5%24%41%30%34%50%49%34%36%30%34%36%36%28%72%28%20%46%34%15%17%20%36%12%
 
If the election for US Senate were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for?
791 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueConfidence Vote Counted AccurateClaim Election StolenOverturning Roe2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioHealth CAbortionCrime / ImmigratInvestigGun PoliFullSomeLittleNoneMore LikLess LikNo DiffeAgreeDisagreeTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Eric Schmitt (R)50%58%42%44%49%55%49%47%52%57%7%38%90%3%40%92%81%34%8%2%86%34%5%45%53%30%68%31%25%56%95%3%38%30%58%74%**79%15%72%81%24%86%5%58%45%47%47%48%55%51%47%38%42%68%60%46%56%41%60%
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)41%32%49%43%42%36%44%42%40%35%77%56%5%93%40%5%12%53%86%94%9%53%89%39%39%67%23%58%64%35%3%95%51%66%29%16%**16%79%14%13%65%7%88%31%45%47%41%42%39%43%36%52%50%22%30%46%33%50%32%
Another Candidate3%4%2%5%3%3%2%4%3%2%8%4%1%2%8%1%3%4%1%5%2%4%2%5%2%3%3%2%6%4%1%0%4%1%5%2%**3%2%5%2%4%3%2%5%3%1%5%4%1%3%4%5%3%3%5%3%3%3%1%
Undecided6%5%7%9%5%6%5%7%6%6%8%1%4%3%11%2%5%10%5%0%4%10%3%10%5%0%6%9%5%5%2%2%8%3%8%8%**3%4%9%3%7%4%5%7%7%5%7%6%4%4%13%5%5%7%5%5%8%6%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%17%24%32%27%41%59%83%11%6%45%33%21%18%25%32%13%8%43%32%22%23%70%7%36%8%18%7%6%6%7%40%38%15%5%24%41%30%37%51%51%38%33%30%37%33%37%30%77%23%18%48%34%15%17%20%36%11%
 
4Which one of the following issues will have the most influence on your vote for US Senate? (issues rotated)
791 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueConfidence Vote Counted AccurateClaim Election StolenOverturning Roe2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioHealth CAbortionCrime / ImmigratInvestigGun PoliFullSomeLittleNoneMore LikLess LikNo DiffeAgreeDisagreeTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Inflation / The Economy36%41%31%33%34%45%28%34%37%39%16%28%47%19%39%40%53%35%24%8%47%35%18%36%38%12%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%30%39%49%**42%21%52%46%28%47%23%41%33%34%38%31%40%35%38%23%34%46%41%35%37%34%35%
Taxes4%5%4%7%7%1%4%7%2%4%5%11%6%2%4%10%5%4%1%1%7%4%1%6%4%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%6%3%**5%2%4%5%4%5%2%6%4%4%3%6%4%4%6%5%3%5%2%4%7%3%7%
Health Care8%6%10%4%11%7%8%8%7%7%8%20%6%11%5%3%7%13%3%7%5%13%4%4%8%19%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%7%6%5%**5%11%5%4%9%5%10%6%8%9%8%9%5%8%7%10%8%5%9%4%6%10%6%
Abortion18%11%25%28%22%14%15%24%14%17%24%22%10%31%17%12%8%15%28%48%10%15%36%20%18%21%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%25%17%11%**12%29%11%6%31%11%28%19%14%21%17%18%20%20%15%22%20%15%19%16%21%19%16%
Crime / Public Safety7%8%6%5%6%9%7%5%8%6%13%5%7%6%10%8%9%5%9%5%8%5%7%7%7%11%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%7%8%6%**9%5%7%10%3%7%7%5%8%8%4%10%6%7%7%7%10%3%7%10%3%9%2%
Immigration / Border Security6%6%5%0%3%6%11%2%8%7%0%3%11%1%2%13%7%4%1%1%10%4%1%5%6%7%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%4%7%5%**10%1%7%10%3%10%1%7%5%5%6%7%4%7%3%2%4%10%6%4%7%6%5%
Investigations Into Trump 6%6%5%2%3%4%12%2%8%6%7%2%1%11%8%1%2%6%11%17%1%6%14%2%6%14%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%10%3%1%**1%12%1%5%7%1%12%4%7%5%5%5%6%6%3%10%5%4%3%5%4%6%13%
Election Integrity4%5%3%4%5%1%7%5%4%4%4%4%6%4%2%8%3%3%4%5%6%3%4%2%5%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%5%5%**9%3%2%6%3%6%3%4%4%4%7%3%3%5%3%10%3%4%4%5%6%3%4%
Gun Policy7%8%6%13%4%8%5%8%7%6%20%3%5%10%6%5%4%11%10%3%4%11%7%11%6%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%7%6%11%**5%8%7%6%7%5%9%6%10%6%8%6%7%6%10%7%8%6%6%10%6%7%7%
Other3%4%2%1%4%3%2%3%3%3%2%1%1%3%5%1%2%3%9%1%1%3%6%4%3%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%2%2%**2%4%2%2%4%1%5%1%4%3%1%3%4%2%4%3%3%2%3%5%1%3%2%
Not Sure2%1%2%3%2%2%1%2%1%2%0%0%1%2%2%0%1%2%1%4%1%2%2%3%1%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%2%**1%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%3%1%3%2%0%1%3%2%2%1%1%2%2%1%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%17%24%32%27%41%59%83%11%6%45%33%21%18%25%32%13%8%43%32%22%23%70%7%36%8%18%7%6%6%7%40%38%15%5%24%41%30%37%51%51%38%33%30%37%33%37%30%77%23%18%48%34%15%17%20%36%11%
 
How much confidence do you have that votes cast in the election for US Senate will be counted accurately?
791 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology AggregatedLikely VoterTop IssueConfidence Vote Counted AccurateClaim Election StolenOverturning Roe2020 VoteEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackOtherRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalAlmost CAbsoluteAlready InflatioHealth CAbortionCrime / ImmigratInvestigGun PoliFullSomeLittleNoneMore LikLess LikNo DiffeAgreeDisagreeTrumpBidenHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralNorthernKansas CSouthwesSt. LouiSoutheas
Full Confidence40%39%41%32%41%37%48%37%42%41%39%36%23%62%44%25%30%44%64%56%28%44%61%26%43%53%34%35%54%37%30%69%38%100%0%0%**26%65%22%27%51%25%66%28%38%52%39%38%44%42%32%40%44%34%49%39%35%42%35%
Some Confidence38%38%37%40%36%36%40%37%38%37%45%38%46%28%33%48%43%32%27%36%45%32%31%43%37%23%41%32%34%42%44%24%33%0%100%0%**43%25%51%43%33%45%28%44%36%34%36%40%37%38%36%40%35%41%36%37%41%36%40%
Little Confidence15%17%13%17%15%20%8%16%14%16%14%8%20%6%19%17%20%16%5%6%18%16%6%24%12%13%20%10%9%14%12%4%23%0%0%100%**22%7%19%21%10%21%3%17%18%11%18%13%14%12%24%13%14%18%9%17%17%14%17%
No Confidence5%4%6%8%6%6%1%7%4%5%1%15%7%3%4%7%6%6%1%2%6%6%1%4%5%12%3%18%3%4%5%3%3%0%0%0%**7%2%5%6%4%6%3%6%7%2%3%6%5%5%5%5%5%4%4%5%3%5%8%
Not Sure2%2%3%3%2%2%3%2%2%3%0%3%4%1%1%3%2%2%3%0%2%2%2%2%3%0%2%4%0%3%9%0%3%0%0%0%**2%1%4%2%2%4%0%5%2%1%4%2%0%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%4%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%24%32%27%41%59%83%11%6%45%33%21%18%25%32%13%8%43%32%22%23%70%7%36%8%18%7%6%6%7%40%38%15%5%24%41%30%37%51%51%38%33%30%37%33%37%30%77%23%18%48%34%15%17%20%36%11%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.