Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27386
 
At the Buzzer, One Week Until Votes Are Counted, Harris 8 Points Atop Trump in Minnesota, Gaining Ground Among Economy-Focused Voters:

SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, KAAL-TV Rochester, and WDIO-TV Duluth shows Democrat Kamala Harris defeating Republican Donald Trump in the North Star State 51% to 43%, with 2% voting for other candidates and 3% undecided.

This is Harris' best showing in the poll, conducted monthly since she entered the race in July; she previously polled at 50% (July and September) and 48% (August). Trump, who saw a low of 40% in July and a high of 44% last month, was also at 43% in August.

Harris today leads by 16 points among women, while men are evenly divided. Harris leads by 6 points among voters under age 50, by 10 among those age 50+. She is banking early votes: among the 26% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots, Harris leads by 20 points; among the 62% who say they are certain to vote, Harris leads by 4. Among those who say they will probably find time to vote, the contest is tied. 95% of Democrats say they are voting for Harris; 90% of Republicans say they are voting for Trump; independents are nearly evenly split, with 46% saying they will vote for Trump, 45% for Harris. Voters with high school educations prefer Trump by a 15-point margin; Harris leads by 7 points among those who have attended some college, by 22 among those who have graduated. Trump leads by 23 points in rural Minnesota, but trails by 13 in the suburbs and by 33 points in urban areas.

The majority of both candidates' voters made up their minds relatively early: 45% of Trump voters said they decided to vote for him last winter or this spring, and another 24% say they made their decision this summer, before the Republican National Convention in July. 71% of Harris voters say they decided they would vote for her as soon as Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race; another 14% decided after the Democratic National Convention in August. Similar and small numbers of voters say they made their decision in September (7% of Trump voters, 6% of Harris voters); in the past few weeks (7% of Trump voters, 4% of Harris voters); or in just the past few days (2% of each candidates' voters).

Trump voters are more likely to say they will vote on Election Day than Harris voters, but perhaps less dramatically so than in 2020: 62% of Trump voters and 54% of Harris voters say they will vote in-person on November 5. 25% of Trump voters and 27% of Harris voters say they will vote early in person; 11% of Trump voters and 18% of Harris voters say they will vote by mail.

Focusing on the issues voters say are most important to them in this year's elections, the economy is unsurprisingly at the top of the list, selected by 35% of likely voters – the highest it has been in eight SurveyUSA tracking polls dating back to this February. Among those voters, Trump leads by 9 points – down from 14 points last month, and the narrowest lead he has had on this topic. Abortion is the next-most important issue, selected by 15% of voters; Harris leads by 63 points among them. 14% say immigration is the most important issue, and those voters prefer Donald Trump by a 78-point margin. Other issues poll in single digits.

When voters are asked what issue is second-most important to them, 29% of those who say the economy is most important choose immigration as their 2nd choice; 18% of economy voters say taxes are their next-most important issue; 14% say it's health care; 12% say it's government spending. Among those who say abortion is most important, 22% say the economy is their next issue; 21% each say gun control and health care. Among immigration voters, 46% identify the economy as their 2nd-most important issue; 20% say it's crime; 16% say it's government spending.

DFL Senator Amy Klobuchar remains well ahead in her bid for a 4th term, defeating former NBA player Republican Royce White by 17 points today, 52% to 35%, essentially unchanged from last month. Other DFL candidates also continue to have the edge in generic balloting for Minnesota House seats, where they lead by 5 points, up marginally from 4 points last month.

Fully crosstabbed results follow. Click the Triangle-T icon wherever it appears below to see SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs, showing how numbers have changed over time.
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from the state of Minnesota 10/24/24 through 10/28/24. Of the adults, 801 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 728 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Minnesota?
900 AdultsAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Yes89%87%92%84%88%89%96%76%85%90%88%89%95%98%86%93%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%92%94%84%89%94%87%93%96%92%87%94%95%97%91%90%87%88%87%90%80%90%95%82%91%93%93%78%89%90%87%90%88%87%86%
No9%11%7%12%11%8%4%20%14%6%11%8%5%2%12%6%------------7%5%12%11%5%11%5%4%7%11%4%4%3%7%8%10%12%11%8%16%7%5%15%6%7%6%17%7%8%12%8%9%11%11%
Not Sure2%3%1%3%1%3%0%4%1%4%1%3%0%0%2%2%------------1%1%4%0%0%2%2%0%0%2%2%1%0%2%2%2%0%2%2%3%3%0%3%3%0%1%5%4%2%1%2%2%1%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%29%25%25%22%9%8%12%25%25%16%6%53%47%24%57%10%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%32%39%22%11%23%33%17%10%35%33%27%37%41%27%37%29%7%28%71%29%34%37%29%38%33%72%28%24%49%28%59%12%14%15%
 
2Minnesota will hold a general election for President, for United States Senate, and for other offices in November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you?
801 Registered VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Already Voted24%23%25%18%16%23%39%22%15%18%16%23%35%51%17%31%100%0%0%28%39%11%24%25%27%34%24%30%26%26%21%28%19%25%26%29%21%25%28%22%30%28%21%23%26%16%27%22%23%26%26%24%23%26%19%21%26%23%26%17%27%17%
Certain To Vote 57%58%55%49%61%60%57%36%62%51%61%60%61%48%55%59%0%100%0%67%50%65%62%67%60%55%64%60%59%56%57%64%62%47%60%69%63%47%63%64%58%58%57%55%54%59%56%50%56%62%45%59%63%60%46%59%55%58%56%60%49%63%
Will Probably Vote10%11%10%14%14%9%3%20%9%14%14%9%4%1%14%6%0%0%100%5%10%24%14%8%12%10%12%10%12%10%6%9%12%12%12%1%11%12%8%11%7%6%13%10%10%15%8%12%10%9%13%10%9%9%14%10%11%9%8%14%14%11%
About 50/506%5%7%14%5%4%0%18%10%13%5%4%0%0%10%2%0%0%0%---------2%6%10%0%6%10%0%0%4%10%0%3%3%6%6%5%9%8%5%10%7%2%10%5%4%4%13%7%6%5%6%6%7%6%
Probably Will Not Vote2%2%2%4%2%2%0%4%4%3%2%2%0%0%3%1%0%0%0%---------1%1%4%0%1%3%1%1%1%3%1%0%1%2%1%3%0%2%2%5%2%0%5%1%1%1%4%1%2%3%2%3%3%1%
Not Sure1%1%2%0%2%3%0%0%0%1%2%3%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%---------0%1%3%0%0%3%0%0%0%3%0%0%0%0%1%3%0%0%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%0%3%2%1%1%1%0%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%27%24%25%24%8%7%12%24%25%17%7%51%49%24%57%10%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%33%41%21%11%25%32%18%10%36%32%28%40%45%27%38%28%7%28%71%27%34%39%26%39%35%75%25%24%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
If the November election for President were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated)
728 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Donald Trump (R)43%48%39%47%43%39%45%46%55%44%43%39%46%43%45%42%39%45%45%17%17%44%52%87%55%14%100%0%90%3%46%91%76%35%8%1%81%35%5%89%5%14%35%75%82%45%43%55%43%37%47%45%39%45%39%31%41%59%37%36%66%57%
Kamala Harris (D)51%48%55%49%53%54%50%49%44%51%53%54%49%53%51%52%59%49%45%80%81%49%43%9%27%77%0%100%6%95%45%8%18%57%91%99%14%57%94%6%93%82%59%19%17%50%51%40%50%59%46%51%55%51%55%64%54%36%58%60%32%37%
Other2%2%1%1%3%3%1%1%1%0%3%3%1%0%2%2%1%2%2%2%0%2%1%2%6%3%0%0%1%0%5%1%1%5%1%0%1%5%0%1%1%1%3%1%2%2%2%1%3%1%2%1%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%3%1%2%
Undecided3%2%4%3%1%5%4%3%0%6%1%5%4%4%2%4%0%4%8%1%2%4%3%2%12%6%0%0%2%1%4%1%5%4%1%0%4%4%0%4%1%3%3%5%0%3%4%4%4%2%5%2%4%3%4%4%3%3%4%2%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%25%24%25%26%7%7%11%24%25%19%8%49%51%26%62%11%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%35%42%19%13%25%29%19%11%38%29%31%42%47%27%38%28%7%27%72%25%34%42%24%40%36%78%22%23%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
4When did you decide you were voting for Donald Trump?
316 Trump VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
This Past Winter Or Spring45%46%43%48%51%40%39%40%56%48%51%40%38%41%50%39%40%48%36%67%**32%41%49%59%**45%**50%**33%58%44%34%****49%34%**49%**39%38%47%53%53%41%45%46%43%41%47%45%43%50%42%49%40%47%29%51%39%
This Summer, Before RNC24%23%24%14%17%36%28%7%10%23%17%36%31%22%16%32%23%25%18%12%**34%24%28%19%**24%**23%**27%28%24%17%****26%17%**25%**18%28%21%25%14%27%26%20%24%25%24%23%25%17%24%24%23%24%40%17%23%
Later This Summer8%8%8%9%8%8%8%13%14%3%8%8%8%7%9%8%10%8%9%0%**9%8%7%7%**8%**9%**4%2%10%13%****7%13%**7%**13%7%9%4%9%8%6%8%10%10%6%9%9%7%9%8%8%8%7%6%11%
In September7%5%10%7%7%3%10%7%11%3%7%3%8%14%7%7%14%5%6%8%**0%8%4%7%**7%**6%**9%5%6%11%****6%11%**6%**11%5%9%2%9%6%8%4%8%5%7%9%6%10%7%5%9%9%2%3%9%
In Just The Last Few Weeks7%8%7%10%10%5%5%13%9%9%10%5%4%6%10%5%9%6%15%7%**9%9%5%4%**7%**5%**14%1%9%9%****6%9%**6%**12%10%4%9%10%6%1%11%9%5%7%10%7%7%6%10%5%7%13%8%4%
In Just The Last Few Days2%2%3%5%0%0%2%15%0%3%0%0%2%3%3%1%2%1%6%7%**3%4%0%0%**2%**1%**4%4%2%1%****3%1%**2%**0%2%3%0%1%2%2%2%2%3%2%1%2%2%1%1%4%1%3%6%0%
Not Sure7%8%6%5%7%7%9%5%0%10%7%7%9%6%6%8%3%8%10%0%**14%7%7%4%**7%**6%**10%3%5%15%****4%15%**6%**6%9%6%7%4%8%11%7%3%11%7%3%7%8%12%3%10%4%6%9%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Trump Voters100%54%46%27%24%22%27%7%9%11%24%22%20%8%51%49%24%64%12%6%2%7%42%28%7%3%100%0%73%3%20%27%44%24%4%0%70%24%4%87%5%9%30%47%13%28%71%31%33%36%26%41%32%80%20%16%47%37%50%10%21%19%
 
5When did you decide you were voting for Kamala Harris?
374 Harris VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
As Soon As Biden Announced71%72%69%71%74%72%66%79%70%67%74%72%70%58%72%69%76%72%49%87%75%38%62%****85%**71%**73%67%**43%60%76%89%49%60%81%**75%80%64%65%**67%71%54%70%78%58%66%82%73%62%64%72%77%70%72%64%77%
After The DNC14%14%15%20%9%13%16%9%30%21%9%13%14%19%14%14%7%17%17%4%20%32%19%****4%**14%**14%15%**37%16%12%7%33%16%10%**14%11%15%23%**11%16%25%14%11%18%18%9%14%15%21%11%13%15%14%18%5%
In September6%5%7%2%6%5%11%0%0%3%6%5%11%10%4%8%8%4%10%6%2%2%9%****2%**6%**5%8%**0%10%7%1%1%10%5%**5%2%9%8%**4%7%5%7%6%11%6%2%5%10%10%5%2%7%3%2%6%
In Just The Last Few Weeks4%5%4%4%7%5%1%6%0%5%7%5%1%0%6%3%5%3%11%2%2%3%8%****2%**4%**4%3%**11%4%4%2%9%4%3%**3%3%5%4%**10%2%4%4%5%3%6%4%4%4%3%5%4%4%4%6%8%
In Just The Last Few Days2%2%1%2%2%2%2%5%0%1%2%2%0%6%2%2%0%2%6%1%2%17%0%****0%**2%**2%2%**0%4%0%0%0%4%0%**1%1%3%0%**4%1%5%2%1%2%3%0%1%4%1%3%1%1%4%6%1%
Not Sure3%2%4%1%2%4%5%0%0%3%2%4%4%7%2%4%4%2%6%0%0%7%2%****7%**3%**2%5%**8%6%0%0%8%6%0%**2%3%3%0%**4%3%7%4%1%8%1%2%2%5%2%4%3%3%3%4%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Harris Voters100%46%54%23%25%26%26%7%6%11%25%26%18%8%48%52%30%60%10%23%8%6%29%3%3%14%0%100%4%78%17%2%9%33%34%22%11%33%56%5%85%44%44%10%2%27%72%19%33%48%21%40%39%77%23%29%52%19%67%14%9%10%
 
If the November election for US Senate were today, who would you vote for? DFL Candidate Amy Klobuchar? Republican candidate Royce White? Or a candidate from another party?
728 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Amy Klobuchar52%47%57%44%54%56%55%39%46%45%54%56%53%59%49%55%60%52%35%78%77%40%48%20%30%74%9%90%9%91%50%9%22%59%87%96%18%59%91%12%91%82%59%22%14%47%54%40%51%60%45%53%56%52%54%65%54%38%58%50%36%45%
Royce White35%38%32%37%34%31%37%33%44%36%34%31%38%34%36%34%34%36%29%16%15%31%41%71%41%11%75%3%78%2%30%85%63%21%6%1%70%21%4%73%3%9%27%62%73%37%34%44%34%30%35%38%31%37%27%24%34%46%32%29%48%38%
Other3%4%2%4%3%4%1%1%4%6%3%4%1%1%3%2%2%2%9%0%0%5%3%1%8%2%3%2%2%2%6%1%3%5%1%1%3%5%1%2%2%2%4%2%4%4%2%4%2%3%3%3%2%2%4%4%1%4%2%4%4%2%
Undecided10%11%9%15%10%9%7%27%6%13%10%9%7%6%13%8%4%10%27%6%7%24%8%8%21%13%12%4%11%5%14%4%12%15%5%2%9%15%4%13%4%8%9%14%9%12%10%12%12%7%17%6%11%9%15%6%11%13%8%17%11%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%25%24%25%26%7%7%11%24%25%19%8%49%51%26%62%11%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%35%42%19%13%25%29%19%11%38%29%31%42%47%27%38%28%7%27%72%25%34%42%24%40%36%78%22%23%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
All 134 Minnesota House seats are up for election in 2024. In the Minnesota House election in your district, are you generally more inclined to vote for a Republican? A Democrat? Or a candidate from another party?
728 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
A Republican43%47%40%45%39%43%46%40%56%41%39%43%49%39%42%45%38%46%40%15%18%43%53%80%67%13%87%6%93%1%45%88%79%35%7%1%82%35%5%86%8%13%37%74%79%46%43%52%43%38%41%46%42%46%34%32%42%56%39%40%58%50%
A Democrat48%45%52%48%55%47%44%56%41%48%55%47%41%52%51%46%56%46%46%78%80%46%40%11%18%80%6%88%3%96%36%7%13%52%91%97%11%52%93%6%87%79%55%18%13%47%49%39%46%56%46%50%49%47%55%63%49%35%54%50%33%41%
Another Candidate1%1%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%2%0%1%1%2%1%1%1%0%0%1%3%2%0%1%0%0%0%4%0%0%2%1%0%0%2%1%0%0%0%1%1%4%1%1%1%2%0%0%2%1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%3%2%
Undecided7%7%7%6%5%9%8%3%4%10%5%9%8%9%6%8%4%7%13%6%2%11%6%6%14%8%6%5%5%3%15%4%8%11%1%2%7%11%2%7%5%8%7%8%4%6%8%8%9%6%13%3%8%7%9%4%9%7%7%9%6%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%25%24%25%26%7%7%11%24%25%19%8%49%51%26%62%11%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%35%42%19%13%25%29%19%11%38%29%31%42%47%27%38%28%7%27%72%25%34%42%24%40%36%78%22%23%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
How will you cast your ballot this year?
728 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
On Election Day58%62%54%60%66%61%46%52%68%59%66%61%48%39%63%53%0%82%59%56%43%69%61%54%72%49%62%54%59%55%61%57%64%56%53%55%62%56%54%62%55%55%59%57%62%65%55%56%56%61%49%61%60%58%55%60%56%60%55%65%54%67%
Early, In Person25%26%24%30%17%22%32%42%23%26%17%22%29%38%23%27%57%13%17%34%26%25%21%31%16%20%25%27%25%27%23%30%21%26%28%25%24%26%27%23%27%28%19%31%29%22%26%24%27%25%25%26%25%25%26%24%28%21%30%18%23%16%
Absentee By Mail15%10%19%7%15%14%22%6%5%10%15%14%21%23%11%18%43%3%12%9%28%6%14%14%12%28%11%18%14%17%13%12%13%14%18%20%13%14%19%12%17%14%20%11%8%12%16%17%15%13%22%12%13%15%14%14%14%17%14%14%22%14%
Not Sure2%2%2%3%2%3%1%0%3%5%2%3%1%0%3%2%0%1%11%1%3%0%4%1%0%2%2%1%2%1%3%1%2%4%0%1%2%4%1%2%1%3%2%2%1%2%2%3%2%2%4%2%2%2%4%2%2%3%2%3%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%25%24%25%26%7%7%11%24%25%19%8%49%51%26%62%11%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%35%42%19%13%25%29%19%11%38%29%31%42%47%27%38%28%7%27%72%25%34%42%24%40%36%78%22%23%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
If you had to pick one issue that is most important to you in the 2024 elections, what would it be?
728 Likely November VotersAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Crime3%3%4%4%2%4%3%4%2%5%2%4%3%4%3%4%4%3%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%4%3%4%3%1%3%5%4%2%3%5%3%3%3%2%3%4%5%4%3%3%3%4%2%3%4%3%4%3%4%2%4%3%0%3%
Abortion15%11%18%19%17%13%11%22%20%17%17%13%12%9%18%12%16%16%7%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%23%7%26%9%8%6%8%27%38%7%8%31%6%24%28%13%3%19%15%15%7%12%22%14%13%17%15%14%17%17%9%16%14%6%17%
Gun Control5%3%7%6%1%6%7%9%2%7%1%6%7%7%4%6%8%4%5%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%2%8%2%9%1%0%2%6%9%9%2%6%9%2%8%8%5%3%3%2%6%4%6%5%6%4%6%5%4%8%4%4%6%5%4%4%
Taxes7%8%5%8%4%6%8%16%1%8%4%6%5%16%6%7%3%7%14%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%7%6%6%7%8%2%6%11%4%3%5%11%4%8%5%7%6%7%7%6%6%12%9%2%7%7%6%6%7%5%7%7%6%9%9%5%
Economy35%33%36%34%45%31%29%17%44%39%45%31%31%26%40%30%32%35%42%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%42%29%42%29%36%39%38%38%33%18%38%38%28%39%30%25%41%36%32%40%33%35%35%34%35%38%31%33%39%39%34%33%34%26%39%38%
Immigration14%17%12%11%11%17%19%8%13%11%11%17%23%9%11%18%13%15%10%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%28%3%25%3%17%31%26%10%1%3%28%10%2%27%4%5%10%28%19%12%15%18%15%12%14%14%14%14%14%8%14%21%13%14%17%15%
Government Spending5%8%3%5%5%6%5%4%5%6%5%6%4%8%5%6%6%5%6%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%7%3%8%2%6%7%9%6%2%0%8%6%1%8%3%2%5%10%7%6%5%6%6%5%7%4%6%6%4%4%4%9%4%9%7%8%
Health Care9%8%10%8%8%11%9%14%8%5%8%11%7%13%8%10%12%8%8%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%3%14%4%13%10%4%5%10%13%16%5%10%14%4%13%14%9%6%5%6%10%10%9%9%9%10%8%10%8%8%10%9%9%15%11%4%
Education2%2%2%1%4%1%1%0%2%1%4%1%1%3%2%1%3%1%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%3%1%3%1%2%1%2%3%0%1%2%2%1%3%3%2%1%0%4%1%1%1%3%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%2%1%2%1%
Policing1%1%0%2%1%1%0%4%0%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%1%0%3%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%2%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%
Other4%6%2%2%3%5%6%3%3%1%3%5%8%3%2%6%5%4%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%7%1%5%7%4%2%4%3%9%3%4%5%2%6%6%5%2%1%3%4%3%3%6%3%4%4%4%4%5%4%3%4%3%4%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%49%51%25%24%25%26%7%7%11%24%25%19%8%49%51%26%62%11%15%5%7%35%14%5%9%43%51%35%42%19%13%25%29%19%11%38%29%31%42%47%27%38%28%7%27%72%25%34%42%24%40%36%78%22%23%49%27%60%12%14%14%
 
10And what issue would be the second most important to you in the 2024 elections?
697 Likely November Voters Who Choose a Listed IssueAllGenderAgeExpanded Age<50 / 50+Likely VoterMost Important Issue2024 PresidentParty AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 PresidentAbortionParentEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-2425-2930-3435-4950-6465-7475+18-4950+Already CertainProbableAbortionGun ContTaxesEconomyImmigratGovernmeHealth CTrumpHarrisRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenAlways LLegal w/Illegal Never LeYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralTwin CitS MNW MNNE MN
Crime8%8%9%6%11%9%7%8%7%4%11%9%6%9%9%8%6%9%11%6%15%5%6%20%10%5%8%8%10%8%5%15%10%5%8%7%11%5%8%9%7%8%9%5%17%11%7%7%10%8%6%7%11%7%12%9%9%7%10%5%8%6%
Abortion9%7%11%14%6%7%8%23%12%9%6%7%6%12%10%8%11%8%7%0%27%8%9%4%2%19%4%14%6%13%6%7%4%9%14%16%5%9%14%3%15%16%7%4%10%9%9%8%10%8%9%7%10%9%8%10%11%5%11%9%8%1%
Gun Control8%5%11%8%4%9%11%12%5%9%4%9%12%8%6%10%8%8%6%21%0%4%5%2%7%14%2%14%1%16%3%0%3%9%15%14%2%9%15%2%15%11%10%4%3%6%9%7%10%7%8%10%6%8%10%9%8%7%9%9%4%5%
Taxes12%13%11%18%12%7%11%17%27%14%12%7%12%8%15%9%10%12%17%9%11%0%18%3%15%17%13%10%14%10%8%4%20%11%11%6%15%11%9%12%12%10%14%13%7%9%13%9%12%14%10%12%13%13%9%8%15%9%13%13%9%9%
Economy19%20%18%18%17%24%17%10%22%20%17%24%20%10%17%20%16%20%22%22%24%35%0%46%17%26%23%16%22%12%29%24%23%19%14%10%23%19%13%24%14%15%17%23%28%18%19%17%18%21%18%19%20%19%18%19%17%22%19%21%23%13%
Immigration16%18%13%6%16%17%23%3%0%12%16%17%17%35%11%20%20%14%11%7%5%9%29%0%29%2%26%7%26%6%16%30%22%16%3%5%24%16%4%25%6%9%13%23%22%14%16%20%15%13%20%16%12%16%15%16%14%18%13%12%21%22%
Government Spending9%11%7%10%9%7%8%12%6%13%9%7%11%1%10%8%8%10%5%3%2%18%12%16%0%1%14%4%9%4%19%12%7%13%4%6%8%13%5%13%4%5%10%11%6%10%8%11%11%6%7%11%7%9%7%5%7%15%5%8%13%19%
Health Care13%11%14%9%16%15%11%7%14%8%16%15%8%16%13%13%12%13%13%21%10%19%14%7%14%0%8%17%9%17%8%4%9%13%19%21%7%13%19%9%18%14%14%12%5%15%11%14%9%15%15%11%14%13%13%13%13%12%13%16%7%15%
Education4%3%5%5%7%3%2%1%8%5%7%3%3%0%6%3%3%4%6%6%7%1%5%0%0%11%1%6%1%7%2%1%3%2%7%13%2%2%9%2%6%6%5%2%3%6%4%3%4%6%4%4%5%3%7%8%2%5%4%3%5%4%
Policing1%2%1%3%1%0%0%5%0%3%1%0%1%0%2%0%3%1%0%2%0%0%0%1%3%4%1%2%0%2%2%2%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%1%3%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%1%1%
Other2%2%2%2%1%2%2%2%0%4%1%2%2%2%2%2%3%1%2%4%0%0%2%2%3%1%1%2%0%3%1%2%0%2%4%2%1%2%3%1%3%4%1%1%0%2%2%2%2%2%3%2%1%2%0%2%2%2%1%2%1%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters Who Choose a Listed Issue100%48%52%25%25%25%26%7%7%11%25%25%18%8%50%50%26%62%11%16%5%7%36%15%6%10%45%50%37%41%19%13%26%29%20%11%38%29%30%43%46%27%38%28%7%28%71%25%34%41%24%39%36%78%22%23%49%27%59%12%14%14%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.