| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23919 |
|
8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in Race to Fill Darrell Issa's Seat in Top-2 Primary in California's 49th Congressional District, Republican Chavez Holds His Ground While Democrat Applegate Peters; 4 Others in Striking Distance for 2nd Run-Off Spot: 25 days until early voting begins and 8 weeks until votes are counted in California's Top-2 Primary, which will determine who replaces Darrell Issa in California's 49th Congressional District, Republican Rocky Chavez emerges as a clear front-runner, according to fresh SurveyUSA polling conducted for KGTV-TV San Diego and the Union Tribune Newspaper. 2 months ago, a SurveyUSA poll of the district found Democrat Doug Applegate in 1st place, at 18%, nominally ahead of Chavez at 17%. Today, however, Chavez is at 16%, but Applegate has fallen to 12%. Democrat Mike Levin at 9%, Republican Diane Harkey at 8%, Democrat Paul Kerr at 8%, and Democrat Sara Jacobs at 7% are all tucked in right behind Applegate at this hour, all with a chance to become the 2nd-place finisher, who wins the right to advance to the 11/06/18 runoff election and face Chavez, assuming Chavez is un-dented down the stretch. Chavez' support is Latino, older, lower-income, and closely tied to support for Issa and President Donald Trump. Of those who approve of the job Issa is doing in Congress, 27% vote for Chavez. Of those who disapprove of the job Issa is doing in Congress, just 5% vote for Chavez. Of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, 31% vote for Chavez in 2018. Of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 3% vote for Chavez in 2018. Chavez voters are focused on building a wall between the United States and Mexico and on the economy. Chavez is a retired U.S. Marine Colonel. Camp Pendleton is located in the district. Applegate's support is liberal and concentrated among those voters who say President Trump is the single most important issue influencing their vote in 2018, and among voters focused on healthcare. Trump's approval is Minus 3 in the district today: 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as President, compared to 49% who disapprove. Darrell Issa's Net Job Approval is Minus 4 today: 42% of voters approve of the job he is doing in the U.S. House of Representatives, 46% disapprove. Filtering and context: Using voter-list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters from CA-49 Friday 04/06/18 through Monday 04/10/18. Of the 800 registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 535 who are likely to vote in the 06/05/18 Top-2 primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a landline telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their landline phone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a landline phone (36% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell-phone numbers, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview. Under the rules of California's Top-2 Primary system, the 11/06/18 runoff could be between 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, or 1 member of each party. |
 | If the primary election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 49th Congressional District were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Rocky Chavez? Republican Kristin Gaspar? Republican Diane Harkey? Republican Brian Maryott? Republican David Medway? Republican Craig Nordal? Republican Mike Schmitt? Republican Joshua Schoonover? Democrat Doug Applegate? Democrat Sara Jacobs? Democrat Paul Kerr? Democrat Mike Levin? Green Party candidate Danielle St. John? Libertarian Joshua Hancock? Peace and Freedom Party candidatte Jordan Mills? Or no party preference candidatre Robert Pendleton? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Rocky Chavez (R) | 16% | 18% | 15% | 10% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 12% | 18% | 14% | 26% | 26% | 4% | 19% | 22% | 16% | 6% | 26% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 23% | 9% | 27% | 4% | 27% | 5% | 31% | 3% | 29% | 2% | 14% | 19% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 15% | 9% | 21% |
| Kristin Gaspar (R) | 5% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 14% | 10% | 0% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 8% |
| Diane Harkey (R) | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 16% | 17% | 3% | 4% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 19% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 11% | 1% | 16% | 2% | 18% | 1% | 15% | 2% | 16% | 2% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 12% |
| Brian Maryott (R) | 5% | 4% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 10% | 2% | 9% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 11% | 0% | 11% | 1% | 12% | 0% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 7% |
| David Medway (R) | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Craig Nordal (R) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Mike Schmitt (R) | 3% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| Joshua Schoonover (R) | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Doug Applegate (D) | 12% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 19% | 14% | 2% | 16% | 22% | 2% | 9% | 17% | 19% | 3% | 23% | 2% | 23% | 2% | 24% | 2% | 22% | 2% | 26% | 6% | 12% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 17% | 10% |
| Sara Jacobs (D) | 7% | 6% | 9% | 0% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 11% | 14% | 1% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 1% | 14% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 15% | 0% | 15% | 2% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 10% |
| Paul Kerr (D) | 8% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 8% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 1% | 14% | 10% | 2% | 11% | 12% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 16% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 14% | 1% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 10% |
| Mike Levin (D) | 9% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 15% | 13% | 1% | 12% | 20% | 0% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 18% | 0% | 18% | 0% | 18% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 21% | 0% | 5% | 12% | 3% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 8% |
| Danielle St. John (G) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Joshua Hancock (L) | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Jordan Mills (PFP) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| Robert Pendleton (NPP) | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Undecided | 21% | 21% | 21% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 12% | 27% | 19% | 23% | 12% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 23% | 17% | 22% | 23% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 28% | 11% | 22% | 19% | 21% | 13% | 22% | 18% | 20% | 14% | 28% | 21% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 43% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 16% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 67% | 80% | 15% | 37% | 32% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 25% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 27% | 66% | 16% | 27% | 57% | 36% | 64% |
 | Which one of the following issues will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Whether or not a border wall should be built? The DREAM Act and DACA recipients? Recent changes to tax laws? Recent changes to healthcare laws? The economy? The job the President is doing? Or some other issue? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Border Wall | 20% | 23% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 25% | 21% | 15% | 23% | 20% | 25% | 38% | 5% | 15% | 41% | 8% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 41% | 3% | 40% | 5% | 39% | 2% | 39% | 3% | 33% | 28% | 17% | 19% | 27% | 18% | 18% | 21% |
| DREAM Act And DACA | 11% | 9% | 13% | 22% | 9% | 8% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 15% | 10% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 12% |
| Changes To Tax Laws | 8% | 9% | 8% | 1% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 8% |
| Changes To Healthcare | 9% | 7% | 11% | 3% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 12% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 13% | 8% |
| Economy | 15% | 16% | 15% | 21% | 25% | 13% | 9% | 23% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 16% | 11% | 19% | 12% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 16% | 12% | 18% | 10% | 18% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 12% | 19% | 13% |
| Job The President Is Doing | 25% | 26% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 24% | 31% | 21% | 28% | 27% | 15% | 15% | 36% | 28% | 12% | 33% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 12% | 40% | 13% | 39% | 11% | 42% | 13% | 41% | 18% | 22% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Other | 6% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 9% | 9% | 4% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 16% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 67% | 80% | 15% | 37% | 32% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 25% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 27% | 66% | 16% | 27% | 57% | 36% | 64% |
 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 46% | 49% | 43% | 38% | 35% | 54% | 48% | 37% | 51% | 45% | 61% | 85% | 9% | 39% | 90% | 25% | 10% | 92% | 46% | 48% | 35% | 48% | 22% | 100% | 0% | 88% | 11% | 91% | 4% | 82% | 6% | 58% | 54% | 42% | 40% | 47% | 46% | 32% | 53% |
| Disapprove | 49% | 48% | 51% | 54% | 59% | 43% | 48% | 56% | 45% | 51% | 34% | 11% | 89% | 53% | 6% | 69% | 88% | 7% | 51% | 36% | 64% | 39% | 78% | 0% | 100% | 9% | 87% | 3% | 95% | 12% | 91% | 36% | 42% | 54% | 47% | 51% | 51% | 63% | 43% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 16% | 1% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 16% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 67% | 80% | 15% | 37% | 32% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 25% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 27% | 66% | 16% | 27% | 57% | 36% | 64% |
 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Darrell Issa is doing as US Representative? |
| 535 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue | Trump Approval | Issa Approval | 2016 Presidentia | 2016 House Vote | Education | Income | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Wall | DREAM | Tax Laws | Healthca | Economy | Presiden | Approve | Disappro | Approve | Disappro | Trump | Clinton | Issa | Applegat | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Approve | 42% | 43% | 41% | 30% | 34% | 45% | 48% | 32% | 47% | 39% | 60% | 78% | 10% | 32% | 77% | 29% | 3% | 82% | 28% | 53% | 23% | 50% | 21% | 79% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 77% | 6% | 80% | 6% | 61% | 44% | 39% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 26% | 50% |
| Disapprove | 46% | 48% | 44% | 54% | 48% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 43% | 48% | 28% | 12% | 78% | 52% | 13% | 57% | 84% | 12% | 61% | 35% | 60% | 30% | 70% | 11% | 81% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 82% | 10% | 88% | 33% | 43% | 49% | 43% | 44% | 51% | 55% | 41% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 10% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 12% | 9% | 17% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 18% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 17% | 16% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 67% | 80% | 15% | 37% | 32% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 25% | 46% | 49% | 42% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 48% | 41% | 6% | 27% | 66% | 16% | 27% | 57% | 36% | 64% |