Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14647
Momentum Now with Democrat Burner in Washington's 8th Congressional District Re-Match: In an election for US House of Representatives from Washington's 8th Congressional District today, thirteen days till votes are counted, momentum, at least in part attributable to a rising Democratic tide nationwide, is now with Democrat Darcy Burner, who see-saws ahead of Republican Dave Reichert, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle. Nominally, it's Burner 50%, Reichert 46% today. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 6 weeks ago, Reichert is down 8 points, Burner is up 6. The September poll was taken at a time when the national Republican party had just finished a successful convention, and the nomination of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate was new and novel. At that time, in Washington state, SurveyUSA showed McCain within 4 points of Barack Obama, statewide, and showed Reichert 10 atop Burner. Today, SurveyUSA shows Obama 16 points atop McCain, a swing of 12 to the Democrats. And, SurveyUSA shows Burner 4 atop Reichert, a swing of 14 to the Democrats.

Among men, Reichert had led by 23, now tied. Among voters under age 50, Reichert had led by 17, now tied. Reichert still holds 90% of the GOP base. Burner holds 82% of the Democrat base. Among Independents, Reichert had led by 8, now trails by 5.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 Washington state registered voters 10/20/08 and 10/21/08, using Registration-Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 641 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08. Burner, a former Microsoft executive, lost to Reichert in 2006 by 2 points, 51% to 49%.

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Dave Reichert? Or, Democrat Darcy Burner?
641 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAlready Voted?Attend Religious ServiceAbortion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalActual VLikely VRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choi
Dave Reichert (R)46%48%45%39%53%44%46%48%45%47%****27%90%14%44%88%37%14%39%48%63%37%35%75%30%
Darcy Burner (D)50%48%51%55%44%52%49%48%51%49%****68%9%82%49%10%59%81%57%48%34%56%61%22%66%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%47%53%21%33%31%15%54%46%88%4%3%6%31%40%29%29%46%22%20%80%37%24%39%35%62%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.