Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14323
Washington State Women Move to Republican Rossi ... Because of Palin? Or, Unrelated to Palin? The women of Washington state are moving to Republican John McCain in the race for president and moving to Republican Dino Rossi in the race for Governor, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon. It is difficult to isolate to what extent this has to do with McCain picking Sarah Palin, a woman, to be his running mate. For the 6th time in 6 tracking polls, the rematch contest between Rossi and incumbent Democrat Christine Gregoire is inside of the SurveyUSA poll's margin of sampling error. But, for the 1st time in 6 times, Rossi is nominally ahead, 48% to 47%. 48% is the highest Rossi has polled in 6 surveys. 47% is the lowest Gregoire has polled in 6 surveys.

Among women, female Democrat Gregoire had led by 24 points in May, 60% to 36%. Today, the candidates are tied. About two-thirds of the gains that Rossi has made among women since May occurred before Sarah Palin became the new face of the Republican party. Since Palin was named, Rossi is up 3 points among women, Gregoire is down 7. There is offsetting but slightly less dramatic movement among men, where Rossi had led by 20 points in May, but leads by 2 points today. Voters without a college degree are shifting Republican, both in the contest for President and in the contest for Governor. Rossi and Gregoire were tied among the lesser educated in April, May, June and July ... but today, Rossi leads by 12 points. In Eastern WA, where Rossi has led sometimes by a little, he now leads by a lot, 31 points.

Gregoire was elected to her first term in 2004, when multiple recounts were needed to determine the winner. On the third recount, Gregoire was determined to have received 129 more votes than Rossi. Gregoire succeeded Democrat Gary Locke. The state has not had a Republican governor in 23 years, since John D. Spellman left office in 1985.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Washington adults 09/05/08 through 09/07/08; of the adults, 803 identified themselves as being registered to vote in Washington state. Of the registered voters, 658 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08.
If you were filling out your ballot for Governor right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Dino Rossi? Or, Democrat Christine Gregoire?
658 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KWestern Eastern Metro Se
Rossi (R)48%49%47%45%49%50%48%47%49%51%****33%90%16%46%88%43%17%44%54%62%49%35%74%32%54%47%47%**31%30%90%****75%42%50%46%61%45%
Gregoire (D)47%47%47%49%46%47%48%47%47%46%****56%9%83%44%10%53%78%52%42%35%42%63%20%65%39%51%48%**63%67%10%****22%52%46%51%30%52%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%19%35%28%18%54%46%84%3%5%8%29%37%28%26%41%22%52%48%37%25%38%38%60%24%73%46%5%14%9%9%3%3%7%32%68%27%21%52%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.