Results of SurveyUSA Mkt Research Study #26956
 
14 Weeks Until Ohio Republican Primary, Secretary of State LaRose Leads GOP Field 2:1, Though 1 in 3 Likely Voters Have Yet to Make Up Minds:

In a Republican Primary election for US Senator from Ohio held today, 12/12/2023, incumbent Secretary of State Frank LaRose defeats three other candidates and advances to face Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in November, according to SurveyUSA research conducted on behalf of the Center for Election Science.

Today, LaRose takes 33% of the vote, defeating State Senator Matt Dolan (18%), businessman Bernie Moreno (12%), and farmer Joel Mutchler (1%) – but with 35% of likely voters undecided, any outcome remains possible.

LaRose has significant advantages, leading by double-digits among both men and women, among voters of all ages, of all income levels, and in most parts of the state. Dolan runs most strongly among those voters who say they get their political news and information about statewide elections from local radio, where he takes 31% and narrowly trails LaRose. Dolan is nominally ahead of LaRose, by a single point, only among independents who say they are certain to vote in the Republican primary, 11% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's estimation. Moreno trails LaRose in every demographic group, and leads Dolan for second place by 12 points among who get their news from social media, by 8 points in the Dayton area, by 4 points among the youngest voters, by 3 points among those who have attended some college, and by a nominal single point among the 5% of likely GOP primary voters who identify as LGBTQ+. Mutchler, at 1% overall, overperforms among the youngest voters (6%), in the Cincinnati area (5%), and in urban Ohio and among those who get their news from podcasts (both 4%).

When voters are offered the opportunity to choose as many of the candidates as they wish ...
  • 52% select LaRose, including 64% of those who get their news from podcasts, 62% of 18 to 34-year-olds, and 61% of Toledo-area voters.
  • 38% select Dolan, including 52% of independents, 48% of those with 4-year college degrees, and 47% of voters age 65+, of voters who get their news from broadcast TV stations, and of those Republican primary voters who say they voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
  • 28% choose Moreno, including 39% of those who get their news from local radio and 36% of those who say they always pay attention to what goes on in government and politics.
  • 6% select Mutchler, including 18% of 2020 Biden voters, 14% of those who get their news from talk radio, and 13% of LGBTQ+ primary voters.
Fully crosstabbed results follow ...
 
About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,275 adults from the state of Ohio online 12/08/23 through 12/12/23, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans and pre-screened to exclude Democrats. Of the adults, 1,107 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,007 said they generally think of themselves as Republicans or independents; of the 1,007 Republicans and Independents, 840 were determined to be likely to vote in the March 19th primary election and were subjected to further screening; 677 were determined to be likely to vote specifically in the primary for United States Senate, and, finally, 573 were determined to be certain to vote in the Republican US Senate Primary, and were asked the substantive questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census-derived targets for gender, age, and education.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Ohio?
1275 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes87%89%84%80%85%88%93%83%90%87%81%93%80%70%84%55%100%100%100%87%85%64%81%91%92%95%93%79%91%96%95%93%87%76%45%87%93%92%92%89%85%83%80%100%64%74%90%79%87%80%87%94%94%85%80%92%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%94%94%92%78%87%90%82%88%85%87%87%88%80%
No12%9%14%18%13%10%7%15%8%11%18%3%20%30%16%45%0%--11%13%27%17%7%6%5%6%18%9%3%4%6%11%20%51%12%7%6%8%6%14%12%17%0%33%21%9%19%12%17%12%5%5%13%17%7%----------5%5%7%19%12%8%16%11%15%12%10%11%13%
Not Sure2%1%2%2%2%3%0%2%2%2%1%4%0%0%0%0%0%--2%3%9%1%2%2%0%1%3%1%1%1%1%2%4%4%1%0%1%0%5%1%5%4%0%3%5%2%2%1%3%1%1%1%2%3%1%----------1%1%1%3%1%2%2%1%1%1%3%1%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%50%50%17%30%31%22%47%53%87%6%3%1%0%1%0%0%64%19%93%7%5%39%20%9%19%8%38%36%23%21%34%20%20%5%34%20%9%6%4%4%8%6%1%6%2%2%4%5%36%16%24%13%11%36%53%1%2%6%25%12%30%25%8%25%66%15%66%64%36%23%45%32%10%11%15%20%37%6%
 
2Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ... ?
1107 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Strong Democrat1%1%1%5%1%0%0%2%0%0%3%11%11%0%13%0%0%--1%5%2%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%3%1%0%2%0%2%1%1%4%0%0%0%0%7%0%0%12%13%0%0%0%0%2%7%0%1%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%14%0%0%3%0%1%1%3%1%0%1%0%2%2%1%0%
Democrat2%2%2%3%2%2%0%3%1%1%3%5%0%0%14%48%0%--2%3%3%2%2%1%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%1%3%0%1%2%1%3%3%7%1%1%0%2%0%5%11%3%2%0%1%0%6%2%1%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%21%0%0%5%1%1%4%3%1%1%1%3%2%2%2%1%
Independent / Leans Democratic6%6%5%9%7%5%2%7%4%5%16%3%20%0%5%0%0%--5%9%0%4%6%8%8%5%5%5%6%4%5%7%8%0%5%8%5%6%0%2%10%5%6%2%0%18%13%38%7%2%1%0%25%7%1%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%65%0%0%21%1%5%7%8%5%5%7%5%7%5%5%2%
Independent25%23%26%33%31%20%17%31%19%23%51%21%23%46%19%0%39%17%34%22%52%36%27%23%19%24%21%31%23%17%15%23%27%31%72%19%27%24%31%18%22%30%23%27%45%34%31%29%32%49%15%6%6%31%49%9%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%100%0%51%14%21%32%33%21%24%22%21%20%24%28%28%
Independent / Leans Republican12%13%12%11%13%11%12%13%12%12%8%18%11%0%0%0%42%13%15%12%11%10%8%13%14%16%15%9%14%14%10%13%14%14%3%8%15%14%14%16%23%13%14%17%3%16%3%11%14%11%26%9%6%10%11%13%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%0%18%8%13%14%9%9%15%10%10%17%8%14%13%7%
Republican30%29%31%22%30%31%33%27%32%32%11%20%26%26%11%0%19%33%37%31%13%22%32%28%36%24%34%29%28%33%24%33%33%29%15%32%27%30%24%28%31%30%33%29%28%18%15%16%10%23%45%45%12%13%23%37%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%0%45%8%38%31%26%28%31%30%31%20%34%26%30%43%
Strong Republican25%26%23%13%16%31%35%15%33%26%6%19%10%0%38%52%0%36%14%26%6%27%25%27%22%25%21%23%26%26%41%24%19%13%10%32%19%25%18%35%12%14%24%14%20%26%7%7%2%7%11%37%74%5%7%39%0%0%0%0%0%0%100%0%0%37%1%33%27%19%16%25%30%28%34%27%27%20%20%
Other1%1%0%3%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%2%0%28%0%0%0%--0%3%2%1%0%0%0%2%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%2%0%0%0%7%9%0%1%1%0%1%0%3%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%52%48%16%29%31%24%45%55%88%6%4%1%0%1%0%0%64%19%93%7%4%37%21%9%21%9%35%38%25%23%37%20%18%2%35%21%10%6%4%4%8%6%1%4%1%3%3%5%33%16%26%14%11%33%56%1%2%6%25%12%30%25%8%25%66%16%72%68%32%23%47%30%10%11%15%20%38%6%
 
3Ohio will hold primary elections for President and the United States Senate on March 19, 2024. Not everyone has the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you certain to vote? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1007 Republicans And IndependentsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Certain To Vote64%71%57%45%56%69%77%53%73%65%50%64%63%75%45%100%59%100%0%65%58%37%60%64%69%69%76%54%68%74%88%71%48%43%13%73%63%61%74%75%64%47%53%54%36%62%56%46%49%47%64%75%88%50%47%75%0%0%0%41%64%66%85%0%41%73%55%71%70%50%56%66%66%62%65%55%65%65%79%
Probably Vote19%17%22%32%22%16%13%26%15%20%14%16%37%25%8%0%41%0%100%19%23%24%22%20%18%16%18%24%16%16%6%21%31%22%17%16%21%27%20%15%13%28%22%19%13%12%28%25%33%24%23%17%4%29%24%16%0%0%0%24%22%22%10%0%24%17%25%17%17%24%21%19%18%24%21%22%20%17%9%
50/50 Chance10%8%12%15%12%10%4%13%7%9%21%10%0%0%47%0%0%0%0%10%11%18%12%9%10%7%4%14%10%5%2%6%15%21%21%7%9%9%3%9%15%18%14%0%25%13%16%24%12%17%9%3%4%17%17%5%0%0%0%20%9%8%3%0%20%6%10%8%7%16%16%7%10%11%9%10%7%11%7%
Probably Will Not6%4%8%6%8%4%5%7%5%6%12%9%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%4%21%5%6%3%7%2%7%5%4%3%2%5%12%43%3%6%3%4%1%7%6%8%27%23%13%0%0%4%11%4%4%4%2%11%4%0%0%0%13%5%4%2%0%13%3%6%4%5%8%6%6%5%2%4%10%8%6%0%
Not Sure1%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%1%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%4%0%0%1%0%2%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%7%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%3%0%4%0%0%4%2%2%0%0%0%2%2%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%2%0%4%0%0%2%1%1%1%0%1%2%0%0%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents100%51%49%14%29%32%25%43%57%90%5%3%1%0%1%0%1%64%19%94%6%4%37%21%9%20%9%35%38%25%23%38%20%17%3%35%20%10%6%5%4%8%6%1%5%1%2%2%3%33%17%28%15%7%33%60%0%0%0%27%13%33%27%0%27%73%12%77%70%30%22%47%31%10%11%15%20%38%6%
 
4Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

President?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 1.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes98%98%98%95%98%98%99%97%99%98%95%91%100%100%100%100%100%99%95%98%92%92%98%98%99%99%97%97%98%99%98%97%98%99%100%99%97%98%98%98%95%93%100%90%100%100%100%96%82%98%98%99%99%91%98%99%0%0%0%95%98%98%100%0%95%99%95%99%98%98%95%98%100%95%99%97%99%98%98%
No2%2%2%5%2%2%1%3%1%2%5%9%0%0%0%0%0%1%5%2%8%8%2%2%1%1%3%3%2%1%2%3%2%1%0%1%3%2%2%2%5%7%0%10%0%0%0%4%18%2%2%1%1%9%2%1%0%0%0%5%2%2%0%0%5%1%5%1%2%2%5%2%0%5%1%3%1%2%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%53%47%13%27%33%27%40%60%91%4%3%1%0%1%0%1%77%23%94%6%3%36%21%10%20%10%33%38%27%26%41%19%13%1%37%21%10%6%5%3%7%6%1%3%1%2%2%3%28%18%31%17%6%28%66%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%21%79%12%82%73%27%20%49%32%11%12%14%20%37%6%
 
5Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States Senate?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes81%83%77%67%72%87%87%70%87%81%77%80%39%100%61%100%100%87%60%81%78%57%79%77%82%87%87%77%80%86%83%85%70%78%70%82%77%74%87%87%87%77%80%84%86%94%52%49%68%73%83%84%91%58%73%86%0%0%0%73%86%79%85%0%73%82%79%81%83%73%73%83%82%83%83%73%77%83%85%
No19%17%23%33%28%13%13%30%13%19%23%20%61%0%39%0%0%13%40%19%22%43%21%23%18%13%13%23%20%14%17%15%30%22%30%18%23%26%13%13%13%23%20%16%14%6%48%51%32%27%17%16%9%42%27%14%0%0%0%27%14%21%15%0%27%18%21%19%17%27%27%17%18%17%17%27%23%17%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%53%47%13%27%33%27%40%60%91%4%3%1%0%1%0%1%77%23%94%6%3%36%21%10%20%10%33%38%27%26%41%19%13%1%37%21%10%6%5%3%7%6%1%3%1%2%2%3%28%18%31%17%6%28%66%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%21%79%12%82%73%27%20%49%32%11%12%14%20%37%6%
 
6Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States House of Representatives?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes80%83%76%67%69%87%88%69%88%80%73%82%39%100%100%100%100%86%58%80%76%47%79%75%85%85%88%76%80%86%84%84%67%77%70%82%76%72%87%85%81%75%80%84%86%94%47%62%67%71%82%84%92%61%71%85%0%0%0%70%85%78%86%0%70%83%80%81%83%72%74%82%80%82%82%73%76%83%83%
No20%17%24%33%31%13%12%31%12%20%27%18%61%0%0%0%0%14%42%20%24%53%21%25%15%15%12%24%20%14%16%16%33%23%30%18%24%28%13%15%19%25%20%16%14%6%53%38%33%29%18%16%8%39%29%15%0%0%0%30%15%22%14%0%30%17%20%19%17%28%26%18%20%18%18%27%24%17%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%53%47%13%27%33%27%40%60%91%4%3%1%0%1%0%1%77%23%94%6%3%36%21%10%20%10%33%38%27%26%41%19%13%1%37%21%10%6%5%3%7%6%1%3%1%2%2%3%28%18%31%17%6%28%66%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%21%79%12%82%73%27%20%49%32%11%12%14%20%37%6%
 
7Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

None of the above?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 0.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes1%0%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%3%3%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%3%0%10%0%0%0%0%4%1%0%1%0%2%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%2%0%2%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%
No99%100%99%99%99%100%99%99%100%100%100%96%100%100%100%100%100%100%98%100%97%97%99%99%100%100%99%99%99%100%100%99%100%99%100%100%99%100%100%100%100%97%100%90%100%100%100%100%96%99%100%99%100%98%99%100%0%0%0%98%100%99%100%0%98%100%98%100%99%100%99%99%100%99%99%99%100%99%100%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%53%47%13%27%33%27%40%60%91%4%3%1%0%1%0%1%77%23%94%6%3%36%21%10%20%10%33%38%27%26%41%19%13%1%37%21%10%6%5%3%7%6%1%3%1%2%2%3%28%18%31%17%6%28%66%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%21%79%12%82%73%27%20%49%32%11%12%14%20%37%6%
 
8Are you certain you will vote in the Republican primary for United States Senate? Certain you will vote in the Democratic primary for United States Senate? Or are you not certain?
677 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate PrimaryAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Republican85%84%85%71%81%86%91%78%88%86%57%83%100%37%76%0%61%89%63%86%64%95%83%81%88%87%89%82%86%87%90%86%74%81%87%88%80%84%79%90%85%80%94%70%78%87%76%52%55%68%84%94%99%59%68%93%0%0%0%48%78%96%98%0%48%93%48%92%86%80%77%87%85%83%88%92%83%83%84%
Democratic4%5%3%9%4%4%3%5%3%3%21%0%0%0%0%0%21%3%7%3%16%5%4%4%4%5%0%4%5%3%4%4%6%1%0%4%5%0%7%8%0%5%2%10%0%0%24%16%16%9%5%0%0%17%9%1%0%0%0%16%5%0%0%0%16%1%25%1%4%5%6%3%4%12%1%1%2%4%6%
Not Certain11%11%12%21%15%10%6%17%8%10%22%17%0%63%24%100%18%7%31%11%20%0%13%15%8%8%11%14%9%10%6%9%20%18%13%8%15%16%14%2%15%15%4%20%22%13%0%32%29%24%11%6%1%23%24%6%0%0%0%36%16%4%2%0%36%5%27%7%10%15%17%10%11%5%11%7%15%13%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate Primary100%55%45%11%25%35%30%35%65%91%4%3%0%0%0%0%1%83%17%94%6%2%36%20%10%22%11%31%38%29%27%43%16%13%1%38%20%9%7%5%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%25%19%32%19%5%25%70%0%0%0%19%15%34%32%0%19%81%12%83%76%24%18%50%32%11%12%12%19%38%7%
 
9If the Republican primary election for the United States Senate were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you choose?

[Candidate names shown to respondents in alphabetical order; ranked here for ease of comprehension. Half of voters were randomly assigned Q9 first; half were randomly assigned the following section, where they could select as many candidates as they wished, first.]
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Frank LaRose33%34%31%41%32%30%34%35%32%32%50%55%36%0%66%0%0%33%29%32%44%0%32%35%28%33%39%37%32%30%36%35%26%26%0%38%26%35%33%40%43%27%19%30%12%11%43%49%51%25%33%35%34%48%25%34%0%0%0%22%39%36%30%0%22%34%28%33%32%35%28%29%40%34%31%39%31%33%27%
Matt Dolan18%20%16%7%18%19%21%15%20%19%17%9%0%0%34%0%33%20%10%19%15%54%16%13%18%21%22%15%18%23%18%22%14%10%17%19%18%31%18%16%16%6%15%17%12%20%16%51%0%14%22%18%21%16%14%20%0%0%0%23%13%18%19%0%23%18%21%19%19%16%20%22%12%17%7%16%23%21%20%
Bernie Moreno12%13%12%11%10%12%14%11%13%13%5%9%24%0%0%0%0%13%6%12%16%20%10%16%12%13%9%10%13%13%16%11%13%8%17%15%15%11%15%5%9%18%0%0%0%16%0%0%7%9%14%13%13%4%9%14%0%0%0%11%9%8%18%0%11%13%6%13%13%10%11%15%9%7%15%10%9%17%6%
Joel Mutchler1%1%1%6%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%4%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%1%0%5%1%1%0%3%0%1%1%1%2%1%0%2%0%1%1%3%4%0%3%0%0%0%6%0%13%0%0%2%2%0%1%4%2%1%0%0%0%1%1%2%0%0%1%1%2%1%1%2%4%1%0%0%1%5%1%0%0%
Undecided35%31%41%34%39%38%30%38%34%36%28%23%40%100%0%0%67%33%53%36%25%21%40%35%42%29%30%37%35%32%28%30%48%54%66%27%40%19%29%39%29%49%66%54%69%54%28%0%41%50%29%34%30%28%50%32%0%0%0%43%38%35%32%0%43%34%43%34%35%37%36%33%38%42%46%30%36%29%47%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
10In the Republican primary election for the United States Senate, if you could choose as many candidates as you liked, which of these candidates would you choose?

Matt Dolan?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes38%40%36%19%35%37%47%31%42%39%29%19%40%0%34%0%33%39%31%38%30%61%32%33%41%48%37%35%42%36%36%44%24%37%34%38%47%42%39%39%28%19%42%17%18%39%29%36%7%40%38%37%41%20%40%38%0%0%0%52%35%34%39%0%52%36%47%38%40%33%42%40%32%28%33%39%34%44%44%
No62%60%64%81%65%63%53%69%58%61%71%81%60%100%66%0%67%61%69%62%70%39%68%67%59%52%63%65%58%64%64%56%76%63%66%62%53%58%61%61%72%81%58%83%82%61%71%64%93%60%62%63%59%80%60%62%0%0%0%48%65%66%61%0%48%64%53%62%60%67%58%60%68%72%67%61%66%56%56%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
11Frank LaRose?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes52%54%50%62%52%49%53%55%51%52%44%79%36%0%66%0%33%53%44%52%58%29%51%53%54%53%59%57%54%46%59%54%43%41%39%55%48%57%64%55%42%38%48%60%46%40%23%64%82%42%59%56%50%61%42%55%0%0%0%34%57%60%48%0%34%54%39%54%52%53%54%51%54%61%53%53%49%50%57%
No48%46%50%38%48%51%47%45%49%48%56%21%64%100%34%0%67%47%56%48%42%71%49%47%46%47%41%43%46%54%41%46%57%59%61%45%52%43%36%45%58%62%52%40%54%60%77%36%18%58%41%44%50%39%58%45%0%0%0%66%43%40%52%0%66%46%61%46%48%47%46%49%46%39%47%47%51%50%43%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
12Bernie Moreno?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes28%31%25%34%23%26%33%26%29%29%22%37%0%0%0%0%0%29%22%28%32%20%22%32%33%33%30%22%31%31%36%28%24%17%17%29%34%39%21%30%22%32%10%46%0%16%0%0%0%25%32%29%32%0%25%30%0%0%0%18%23%26%35%0%18%29%22%29%31%19%28%31%24%22%33%20%28%35%10%
No72%69%75%66%77%74%67%74%71%71%78%63%100%100%100%0%100%71%78%72%68%80%78%68%67%67%70%78%69%69%64%72%76%83%83%71%66%61%79%70%78%68%90%54%100%84%100%100%100%75%68%71%68%100%75%70%0%0%0%82%77%74%65%0%82%71%78%71%69%81%72%69%76%78%67%80%72%65%90%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
13Joel Mutchler?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes6%7%5%12%7%8%2%9%5%7%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%12%6%13%5%2%9%9%9%8%5%8%6%4%7%9%8%0%5%6%8%10%14%7%3%5%31%6%0%0%0%7%9%7%6%3%3%9%6%0%0%0%7%8%8%4%0%7%6%18%5%7%5%8%6%7%3%4%6%8%8%3%
No94%93%95%88%93%92%98%91%95%93%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%94%88%94%87%95%98%91%91%91%92%95%92%94%96%93%91%92%100%95%94%92%90%86%93%97%95%69%94%100%100%100%93%91%93%94%97%97%91%94%0%0%0%93%92%92%96%0%93%94%82%95%93%95%92%94%93%97%96%94%92%92%97%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
14None of the above?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikelyOrientationEducationIncomeAttention To PoliticsGet NewsIdeologyIdeology AggregatedParty AffiliationParty Affiliation Aggreg2020 VoteHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+White Black HispanicAsianMiddle ENative ANative HOther CertainProbableStraightLGBTQSome HigHigh SchSome Col2-year C4-year CPost-gra< $40K$40K - $> $80KAlways Most Of About HaSome Of Never Cable NeBroadcasLocal RaPodcastsTalk RadNewspapePosts OnTalking Voter GuDo Not ROther ExtremelLiberal SlightlyModerateSlightlyConservaExtremelLiberalModerateConservaStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong RDemocratIndependRepublicBidenTrumpOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralToledo ADayton ACincinnaColumbusClevelanSE Ohio
Yes18%14%24%24%21%23%11%22%17%18%29%13%24%100%0%0%67%17%31%19%16%26%21%24%17%13%13%16%18%19%13%14%32%28%44%15%18%8%11%22%31%24%32%28%42%44%48%0%18%24%16%18%16%23%24%17%0%0%0%22%21%16%19%0%22%18%24%17%16%26%19%17%20%24%22%18%24%14%14%
No82%86%76%76%79%77%89%78%83%82%71%87%76%0%100%0%33%83%69%81%84%74%79%76%83%87%87%84%82%81%87%86%68%72%56%85%82%92%89%78%69%76%68%72%58%56%52%100%82%76%84%82%84%77%76%83%0%0%0%78%79%84%81%0%78%82%76%83%84%74%81%83%80%76%78%82%76%86%86%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%55%45%9%23%36%32%32%68%93%3%3%0%0%0%0%1%87%13%95%5%2%35%19%10%22%11%30%39%30%28%44%14%12%1%39%18%9%6%6%4%6%6%1%3%1%1%1%2%20%18%36%23%3%20%77%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%11%89%7%90%77%23%16%51%32%11%12%13%19%38%7%
 
 All Questions Crosstabbed By All Questions
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of Ohio?
1275 AdultsAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes87%---100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
No12%------------------------------------------
Not Sure2%------------------------------------------
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%1%2%6%25%12%30%25%1%64%19%10%6%1%98%2%81%19%80%20%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
2Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ... ?
1107 Registered VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Strong Democrat1%1%0%0%---------------------------------------
Democrat2%2%0%0%---------------------------------------
Independent / Leans Democratic6%6%0%0%---------------------------------------
Independent25%25%0%0%--------17%34%54%58%79%20%51%19%29%18%32%64%21%11%78%61%7%14%10%10%13%15%8%7%15%7%12%12%11%13%10%
Independent / Leans Republican12%12%0%0%--------13%15%12%12%0%14%13%15%10%15%10%0%14%14%20%21%16%10%10%14%14%13%14%15%12%11%15%17%13%16%13%
Republican30%30%0%0%--------33%37%25%24%21%34%30%34%37%33%37%36%34%38%2%12%42%37%25%76%38%34%40%44%32%35%39%48%37%33%39%
Strong Republican25%25%0%0%--------36%14%9%7%0%31%6%32%24%33%21%0%31%38%0%5%35%39%56%0%35%38%37%35%41%47%34%22%39%38%37%
Other1%1%0%0%---------------------------------------
Total100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%100%0%0%64%19%10%6%1%98%2%81%19%80%20%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
3Ohio will hold primary elections for President and the United States Senate on March 19, 2024. Not everyone has the time to vote in every election. Which best describes you? Are you certain to vote? Will you probably vote? Are the chances you will vote about 50/50? Or will you probably not vote?
1007 Republicans And IndependentsAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3.2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Certain To Vote64%64%0%0%0%0%0%41%64%66%85%0%-----77%51%83%52%83%52%30%77%87%72%54%89%93%93%77%81%90%86%89%85%90%86%77%88%78%89%
Probably Vote19%19%0%0%0%0%0%24%22%22%10%0%-----23%49%17%48%17%48%70%23%13%28%46%11%7%7%23%19%10%14%11%15%10%14%23%12%22%11%
50/50 Chance10%10%0%0%0%0%0%20%9%8%3%0%-------------------------------
Probably Will Not6%6%0%0%0%0%0%13%5%4%2%0%-------------------------------
Not Sure1%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%-------------------------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents100%100%0%0%0%0%0%27%13%33%27%0%98%2%81%19%80%20%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
4Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

President?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 1.1 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes98%98%0%0%0%0%0%95%98%98%100%0%99%95%0%0%0%--98%97%99%95%0%98%99%89%95%98%99%100%91%100%99%99%99%100%100%99%98%99%100%99%
No2%2%0%0%0%0%0%5%2%2%0%0%1%5%0%0%0%--2%3%1%5%100%2%1%11%5%2%1%0%9%0%1%1%1%0%0%1%2%1%0%1%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%77%23%0%0%0%81%19%80%20%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
5Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States Senate?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes81%81%0%0%0%0%0%73%86%79%85%0%87%60%0%0%0%81%69%--97%14%0%81%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
No19%19%0%0%0%0%0%27%14%21%15%0%13%40%0%0%0%19%31%--3%86%100%19%------------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%77%23%0%0%0%98%2%80%20%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
6Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

United States House of Representatives?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes80%80%0%0%0%0%0%70%85%78%86%0%86%58%0%0%0%81%51%97%11%--0%80%97%98%96%96%98%96%91%97%96%97%96%97%96%97%94%97%96%97%
No20%20%0%0%0%0%0%30%15%22%14%0%14%42%0%0%0%19%49%3%89%--100%20%3%2%4%4%2%4%9%3%4%3%4%3%4%3%6%3%4%3%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%77%23%0%0%0%98%2%81%19%1%99%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
7Which of the following primary races will you vote in?

None of the above?
840 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in PrimaryAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 0.6 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes1%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%0%0%0%2%0%0%0%0%25%0%3%0%3%--------------------
No99%99%0%0%0%0%0%98%100%99%100%0%100%98%0%0%0%100%75%100%97%100%97%--100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%21%14%34%31%0%77%23%0%0%0%98%2%81%19%80%20%85%4%11%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
8Are you certain you will vote in the Republican primary for United States Senate? Certain you will vote in the Democratic primary for United States Senate? Or are you not certain?
677 Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate PrimaryAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Republican85%85%0%0%0%0%0%48%78%96%98%0%89%63%0%0%0%85%44%85%0%85%84%0%85%---100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Democratic4%4%0%0%0%0%0%16%5%0%0%0%3%7%0%0%0%4%23%4%0%4%3%0%4%------------------
Not Certain11%11%0%0%0%0%0%36%16%4%2%0%7%31%0%0%0%11%33%11%0%11%13%0%11%------------------
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Republicans And Independents Likely To Vote in Senate Primary100%100%0%0%0%0%0%19%15%34%32%0%83%17%0%0%0%98%2%100%0%97%3%0%100%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
9If the Republican primary election for the United States Senate were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you choose?

[Candidate names shown to respondents in alphabetical order; ranked here for ease of comprehension. Half of voters were randomly assigned Q9 first; half were randomly assigned the following section, where they could select as many candidates as they wished, first.]
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Frank LaRose33%33%0%0%0%0%0%22%39%36%30%0%33%29%0%0%0%32%63%33%0%33%37%0%33%33%0%0%-----16%43%58%5%22%37%23%33%11%38%
Matt Dolan18%18%0%0%0%0%0%23%13%18%19%0%20%10%0%0%0%18%12%18%0%19%9%0%18%18%0%0%-----43%3%9%28%15%20%23%18%6%21%
Bernie Moreno12%12%0%0%0%0%0%11%9%8%18%0%13%6%0%0%0%13%0%12%0%12%16%0%12%12%0%0%-----11%13%7%18%41%1%4%13%1%15%
Joel Mutchler1%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%2%0%0%1%2%0%0%0%1%11%1%0%1%3%0%1%1%0%0%-----2%1%1%1%1%1%11%1%1%1%
Undecided35%35%0%0%0%0%0%43%38%35%32%0%33%53%0%0%0%35%14%35%0%35%35%0%35%35%0%0%-----28%40%25%47%21%41%39%35%82%25%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
10In the Republican primary election for the United States Senate, if you could choose as many candidates as you liked, which of these candidates would you choose?

Matt Dolan?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes38%38%0%0%0%0%0%52%35%34%39%0%39%31%0%0%0%38%41%38%0%38%39%0%38%38%0%0%19%88%35%58%30%--34%43%47%35%66%36%0%47%
No62%62%0%0%0%0%0%48%65%66%61%0%61%69%0%0%0%62%59%62%0%62%61%0%62%62%0%0%81%12%65%42%70%--66%57%53%65%34%64%100%53%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%33%18%12%1%35%52%48%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
11Frank LaRose?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.6 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes52%52%0%0%0%0%0%34%57%60%48%0%53%44%0%0%0%52%77%52%0%52%56%0%52%52%0%0%93%26%30%45%37%46%56%--52%52%72%51%0%64%
No48%48%0%0%0%0%0%66%43%40%52%0%47%56%0%0%0%48%23%48%0%48%44%0%48%48%0%0%7%74%70%55%63%54%44%--48%48%28%49%100%36%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%28%72%6%94%18%82%
 
12Bernie Moreno?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes28%28%0%0%0%0%0%18%23%26%35%0%29%22%0%0%0%29%0%28%0%28%31%0%28%28%0%0%19%23%92%23%17%35%24%28%28%--58%26%0%35%
No72%72%0%0%0%0%0%82%77%74%65%0%71%78%0%0%0%71%100%72%0%72%69%0%72%72%0%0%81%77%8%77%83%65%76%72%72%--42%74%100%65%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%6%94%18%82%
 
13Joel Mutchler?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 2.2 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes6%6%0%0%0%0%0%7%8%8%4%0%6%12%0%0%0%6%11%6%0%6%11%0%6%6%0%0%5%8%2%59%7%11%3%9%4%13%4%--0%8%
No94%94%0%0%0%0%0%93%92%92%96%0%94%88%0%0%0%94%89%94%0%94%89%0%94%94%0%0%95%92%98%41%93%89%97%91%96%87%96%--100%92%
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%18%82%
 
14None of the above?
573 Likely GOP Senate Primary VotersAllRegistered OHPartyLikelyVote For PresideVote For SenateVote For U.S. HoNonePrimary VoteRepublican Primary VoteChoose DolanChoose LaroseChoose MorenoChoose MutchlerNone Of These
Credibility Interval: ± 3.5 pct pointsYesNoNot SureStrong DDemocratIndependIndependIndependRepublicStrong ROtherCertain Probably50/50 ChProbablyNot SureYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratNot CertFrank LaMatt DolBernie MJoel MutUndecideYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNoYesNo
Yes18%18%0%0%0%0%0%22%21%16%19%0%17%31%0%0%0%19%0%18%0%18%20%0%18%18%0%0%6%6%2%10%43%0%30%0%39%0%26%0%20%--
No82%82%0%0%0%0%0%78%79%84%81%0%83%69%0%0%0%81%100%82%0%82%80%0%82%82%0%0%94%94%98%90%57%100%70%100%61%100%74%100%80%--
Total100%100%0%0%0%0%0%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%0%100%100%100%0%100%100%0%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Senate Primary Voters100%100%0%0%0%0%0%11%14%38%38%0%87%13%0%0%0%99%1%100%0%97%3%0%100%100%0%0%33%18%12%1%35%38%62%52%48%28%72%6%94%