| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #25669 |
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Republicans May Hold Duncan Hunter's House Seat, Barring True Blue Tsunami
At the Finish Line, Voters in CA-50 May Have Fewer Reservations About Republican Issa, But Will That Be Enough To Carry Him To Victory in a New District Over Popular Democrat Campa-Najjar? That Depends If Anyone Shows Up To Vote On Election Day: Well-traveled Republican Darryl Issa, who has represented California's 48th Congressional District, California's 49th Congressional District, and today tries to come out of retirement to win a seat in California's 50th Congressional District, appears to have won some reluctant converts in the campaign's final weeks, and now has a late edge over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, according to pre-election tracking research conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union-Tribune in San Diego. When SurveyUSA first polled the contest 6 weeks ago, 34% of voters backing Issa said they did so with reservations. Today, that number falls to 25%. The number of voters who say they back Issa enthusiastically had been 59%, today 68%. At the same time, voters who say they have an "extremely unfavorable" opinion of Campa-Najjar jumped from 10% in September to 25% today. When the offsetting movement is stitched together, the contest at this hour stands: * Issa 51%. * Campa-Najjar 40%. Is it over? No. Among the 30% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Democrat Campa-Najjar leads, narrowly, 51% to 46%. For Issa to hold the seat for the GOP, he must outperform Campa-Najjar among those who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so. Startlingly: among the small group of voters who say they plan to vote on Election Day, Issa leads 7:1. Issa will need many --- but not necessarily all --- of those votes to carry him across the finish line. CA-50 has more Republicans than Democrats. Issa holds 88% of the Republican base; just 7% defect to Campa-Najjar. Steady since September. Campa-Najjar holds 92% of the Democratic base; just 5% defect to Issa. Steady since September. But: among independents, Campa-Najjar is hemorrhaging supporters, turning a 13-point September lead into a 14-point October deficit. A 27-point swing to Issa. Men have stuck with Issa; women have abandoned Campa-Najjar. In 2016, Donald Trump carried CA-50 by 15 points. Today, 1 week till Election Day 2020, the incumbent President leads Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 4 points, an 11-point shift to the left, but possibly not enough to flip the House seat for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 voting-age individuals from California's 50th US Congressional District 10/22/2020 through 10/26/2020. The research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. 57% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Sample for this portion of the electorate was drawn from voter files of those known to be registered in the district using Aristotle of Washington DC. 43% of likely voters were interviewed online, using sample drawn from Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Online sample drawn was of adults, who were qualified as registered voters during the course of the survey. When the 2 sample sources are combined, 590 respondents are registered to vote in CA-50 and of them, 538 are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day, 11/03/2020. The most recent congressman to represent the district, Republican Duncan Hunter, was sentenced to 11 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy. Hunter's wife Margaret was sentenced to 8 months of home confinement after also pleading guilty to conspiracy. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 650 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Yes | 91% | 94% | 88% | 75% | 91% | 98% | 99% | 82% | 99% | 90% | 91% | 95% | 95% | 86% | 100% | 98% | 90% | 94% | 80% | 98% | 90% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 99% | 72% | 91% | 96% | 82% | 89% | 96% | 92% | 90% | 97% | 79% | 82% | 91% | 94% | 93% | 90% | 83% | 99% |
| No | 8% | 6% | 10% | 21% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 10% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3% | 1% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 17% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 15% | 1% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 48% | 52% | 26% | 22% | 28% | 25% | 48% | 52% | 76% | 19% | 42% | 31% | 21% | 14% | 23% | 31% | 18% | 5% | 38% | 31% | 24% | 8% | 55% | 28% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 31% | 14% | 39% | 47% | 23% | 35% | 43% | 29% | 70% | 63% | 37% | 15% | 62% | 22% | 30% | 30% | 51% | 49% |
 | Is your opinion of Darrell Issa extremely favorable? Favorable? Neutral? Unfavorable? Extremely unfavorable? Or, do you have no opinion of him? |
| 590 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 19% | 18% | 20% | 22% | 8% | 20% | 25% | 15% | 22% | 18% | 22% | 35% | 3% | 13% | 43% | 35% | 10% | 1% | ** | 38% | 10% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 21% | 17% | 24% | 30% | 40% | 0% | 38% | 1% | 10% | 17% | 23% | 11% | 19% | 22% | 23% | 17% | 22% | 11% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 22% | 9% | 28% |
| Favorable | 19% | 23% | 16% | 16% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 20% | 19% | 20% | 14% | 29% | 7% | 19% | 39% | 27% | 16% | 8% | ** | 32% | 16% | 6% | 26% | 21% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 25% | 33% | 4% | 32% | 4% | 22% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 24% | 21% | 29% | 16% | 25% | 8% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 19% |
| Neutral | 16% | 20% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 10% | 23% | 13% | 17% | 20% | 10% | ** | 15% | 20% | 10% | 30% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 30% | 17% | 10% | 18% | 13% | 21% | 22% | 10% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 9% | 24% | 9% |
| Unfavorable | 12% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 5% | 16% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 21% | 15% | 0% | 4% | 17% | 28% | ** | 2% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 14% | 8% | 16% | 13% | 1% | 2% | 25% | 3% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 4% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 8% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 24% | 25% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 27% | 37% | 14% | 31% | 24% | 25% | 7% | 52% | 19% | 2% | 8% | 30% | 47% | ** | 6% | 30% | 50% | 7% | 22% | 38% | 29% | 29% | 7% | 1% | 55% | 3% | 58% | 12% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 18% | 28% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 21% | 11% | 29% | 15% | 31% | 27% | 12% | 34% |
| No Opinion | 10% | 4% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 2% | 9% | 7% | 6% | ** | 7% | 7% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 22% | 18% | 7% | 14% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 22% | 30% | 27% | 43% | 57% | 76% | 19% | 44% | 33% | 20% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 19% | 5% | 41% | 31% | 24% | 8% | 55% | 28% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 34% | 11% | 39% | 49% | 20% | 34% | 45% | 30% | 70% | 68% | 32% | 14% | 63% | 23% | 30% | 30% | 46% | 54% |
 | If your opinion of Ammar Campa-Najjar is... |
| 590 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Extremely Favorable | 20% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 23% | 29% | 11% | 26% | 18% | 27% | 8% | 40% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 27% | 39% | ** | 6% | 27% | 37% | 14% | 19% | 27% | 22% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 46% | 4% | 47% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 13% | 15% | 26% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 15% | 13% | 25% | 10% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 29% |
| Favorable | 16% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 17% | 14% | 5% | 34% | 15% | 0% | 10% | 21% | 27% | ** | 6% | 21% | 31% | 19% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 29% | 5% | 30% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 21% | 14% | 16% | 11% | 18% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 21% | 19% | 14% |
| Neutral | 15% | 15% | 15% | 22% | 21% | 10% | 10% | 22% | 10% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 13% | 24% | 3% | 16% | 15% | 22% | ** | 11% | 15% | 20% | 27% | 12% | 14% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 18% | 10% | 25% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 22% | 9% |
| Unfavorable | 13% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 5% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 5% | ** | 17% | 15% | 4% | 18% | 16% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 3% | 19% | 4% | 10% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 17% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 11% |
| Extremely Unfavorable | 25% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 21% | 28% | 30% | 20% | 29% | 27% | 19% | 48% | 2% | 18% | 75% | 39% | 11% | 1% | ** | 53% | 11% | 1% | 9% | 31% | 25% | 20% | 30% | 52% | 52% | 1% | 52% | 1% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 16% | 30% | 26% | 41% | 18% | 31% | 11% | 27% | 22% | 32% | 23% | 21% | 15% | 34% |
| No Opinion | 10% | 6% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 17% | 5% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 15% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 6% | ** | 7% | 11% | 8% | 14% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 28% | 11% | 6% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 5% | 22% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 12% | 19% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 22% | 30% | 27% | 43% | 57% | 76% | 19% | 44% | 33% | 20% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 19% | 5% | 41% | 31% | 24% | 8% | 55% | 28% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 34% | 11% | 39% | 49% | 20% | 34% | 45% | 30% | 70% | 68% | 32% | 14% | 63% | 23% | 30% | 30% | 46% | 54% |
| 4 | California's 50th congressional district will elect a US Representative on November 3. Not everyone has a chance to vote in an election. Which best describes you? |
| 590 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Not Interested | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | ** | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Not Sure If Time | 5% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 4% | ** | 6% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 20% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 2% |
| Almost Certain | 8% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 4% | 6% | 16% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 5% | ** | 6% | 12% | 6% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 11% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 6% |
| 100% Certain | 55% | 60% | 51% | 48% | 51% | 62% | 58% | 49% | 60% | 58% | 43% | 63% | 52% | 52% | 55% | 66% | 55% | 58% | ** | 62% | 55% | 51% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 76% | 79% | 65% | 58% | 63% | 51% | 40% | 58% | 57% | 49% | 53% | 60% | 57% | 55% | 60% | 45% | 37% | 56% | 64% | 62% | 51% | 44% | 65% |
| Already Voted | 28% | 28% | 28% | 20% | 26% | 30% | 32% | 23% | 31% | 26% | 35% | 26% | 36% | 21% | 32% | 22% | 26% | 30% | ** | 26% | 26% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 41% | 18% | 8% | 25% | 36% | 25% | 36% | 34% | 24% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 22% | 31% | 22% | 30% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | ** | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 22% | 30% | 27% | 43% | 57% | 76% | 19% | 44% | 33% | 20% | 16% | 25% | 31% | 19% | 5% | 41% | 31% | 24% | 8% | 55% | 28% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 50% | 45% | 46% | 34% | 11% | 39% | 49% | 20% | 34% | 45% | 30% | 70% | 68% | 32% | 14% | 63% | 23% | 30% | 30% | 46% | 54% |
 | How will you cast your ballot this year? By mail? In person before election day? Or in person on election day? |
| 538 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| By Mail | 58% | 56% | 61% | 63% | 55% | 47% | 70% | 59% | 58% | 58% | 57% | 52% | 65% | 61% | 52% | 57% | 59% | 62% | ** | 55% | 59% | 65% | 59% | 48% | 79% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 68% | 52% | 60% | 72% | 58% | 56% | 65% | 61% | 54% | 57% | 59% | 56% | 67% | 59% | 59% | 57% | 61% | 58% | 62% | 56% |
| In Person Before Election Day | 25% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 30% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 32% | 28% | ** | 20% | 32% | 25% | 17% | 31% | 15% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 27% | 24% | 23% | 33% | 13% | 22% | 30% | 11% | 25% | 32% | 26% | 25% | 28% | 17% | 15% | 27% | 26% | 23% | 32% | 18% | 30% |
| In Person On Election Day | 15% | 20% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 22% | 7% | 14% | 26% | 22% | 8% | 9% | ** | 24% | 8% | 9% | 22% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 22% | 6% | 24% | 5% | 9% | 19% | 13% | 21% | 14% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 10% | 17% | 13% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | ** | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 21% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 61% | 77% | 18% | 45% | 34% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 31% | 19% | 4% | 42% | 31% | 24% | 9% | 61% | 30% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 34% | 10% | 39% | 50% | 20% | 33% | 47% | 31% | 69% | 71% | 29% | 11% | 65% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 43% | 57% |
 | In the November election for U.S. House of Representatives, how do you vote? Republican Darrell Issa? or Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar? |
| 538 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Darrell Issa (R) | 51% | 54% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 54% | 50% | 49% | 52% | 51% | 47% | 88% | 5% | 46% | 97% | 84% | 39% | 4% | ** | 89% | 39% | 3% | 37% | 55% | 46% | 44% | 52% | 78% | 92% | 6% | 90% | 6% | 52% | 55% | 48% | 39% | 55% | 54% | 61% | 46% | 57% | 35% | 58% | 45% | 64% | 44% | 46% | 47% | 53% |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) | 40% | 39% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 47% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% | 7% | 92% | 32% | 2% | 11% | 49% | 88% | ** | 8% | 49% | 89% | 31% | 37% | 51% | 48% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 87% | 3% | 90% | 24% | 37% | 46% | 44% | 34% | 43% | 33% | 44% | 38% | 49% | 22% | 48% | 28% | 49% | 47% | 36% | 44% |
| Undecided | 9% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 22% | 0% | 5% | 12% | 8% | ** | 3% | 12% | 8% | 33% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 24% | 8% | 6% | 17% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 16% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 16% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 21% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 61% | 77% | 18% | 45% | 34% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 31% | 19% | 4% | 42% | 31% | 24% | 9% | 61% | 30% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 34% | 10% | 39% | 50% | 20% | 33% | 47% | 31% | 69% | 71% | 29% | 11% | 65% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 43% | 57% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Issa? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Campa-Najjar? |
| 274 Issa Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Issa | 63% | 59% | 68% | 73% | 49% | 60% | 69% | 61% | 64% | 63% | 66% | 65% | ** | 50% | 77% | 60% | 49% | ** | ** | 67% | 49% | ** | 77% | 59% | 71% | 65% | 63% | 59% | 63% | 53% | 63% | ** | 62% | 63% | 63% | 73% | 67% | 57% | 56% | 67% | 60% | 73% | 63% | 66% | 58% | 64% | 69% | 61% | 64% |
| Against Campa-Najjar | 32% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 43% | 36% | 30% | 29% | 33% | 31% | 30% | 30% | ** | 43% | 20% | 37% | 37% | ** | ** | 30% | 37% | ** | 6% | 39% | 20% | 26% | 35% | 41% | 33% | 24% | 32% | ** | 24% | 32% | 33% | 24% | 28% | 37% | 40% | 27% | 36% | 15% | 37% | 25% | 40% | 28% | 23% | 28% | 34% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 5% | ** | 7% | 3% | 3% | 14% | ** | ** | 3% | 14% | ** | 18% | 3% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 22% | 5% | ** | 13% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 12% | 0% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Issa Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 18% | 19% | 34% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 77% | 17% | 77% | 3% | 18% | 30% | 43% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 73% | 24% | 2% | 6% | 66% | 27% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 90% | 5% | 84% | 4% | 11% | 42% | 47% | 15% | 36% | 49% | 37% | 63% | 80% | 20% | 13% | 58% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 40% | 60% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Issa enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 274 Issa Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 68% | 67% | 70% | 68% | 58% | 73% | 70% | 63% | 72% | 67% | 79% | 71% | ** | 54% | 82% | 62% | 66% | ** | ** | 70% | 66% | ** | 51% | 71% | 67% | 70% | 67% | 71% | 70% | 54% | 69% | ** | 69% | 63% | 73% | 63% | 66% | 72% | 62% | 72% | 66% | 76% | 63% | 73% | 61% | 70% | 77% | 62% | 73% |
| With Reservations | 25% | 29% | 22% | 22% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 25% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 23% | ** | 36% | 18% | 28% | 31% | ** | ** | 24% | 31% | ** | 48% | 25% | 21% | 24% | 29% | 23% | 24% | 46% | 25% | ** | 17% | 28% | 25% | 24% | 31% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 30% | 13% | 37% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 17% | 26% | 25% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 5% | ** | 10% | 0% | 10% | 4% | ** | ** | 6% | 4% | ** | 2% | 4% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 6% | ** | 15% | 9% | 2% | 13% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 0% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Issa Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 18% | 19% | 34% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 77% | 17% | 77% | 3% | 18% | 30% | 43% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 73% | 24% | 2% | 6% | 66% | 27% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 90% | 5% | 84% | 4% | 11% | 42% | 47% | 15% | 36% | 49% | 37% | 63% | 80% | 20% | 13% | 58% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 40% | 60% |
 | Is yours more a vote FOR Campa-Najjar? Or is yours more a vote AGAINST Issa? |
| 218 Campa-Najjar Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 8.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| For Campa-Najjar | 66% | 72% | 60% | 61% | 65% | 75% | 62% | 63% | 68% | 65% | 70% | 81% | 68% | 48% | ** | 42% | 61% | 75% | 67% | 49% | 61% | 74% | 49% | 64% | 72% | 60% | 86% | ** | ** | 66% | ** | 72% | 56% | 61% | 70% | 44% | 72% | 73% | 72% | 65% | 68% | 65% | 61% | 69% | 58% | 77% | 60% | 57% | 72% |
| Against Issa | 29% | 27% | 30% | 29% | 24% | 25% | 34% | 27% | 30% | 31% | 21% | 18% | 25% | 52% | ** | 58% | 35% | 20% | 24% | 51% | 35% | 21% | 37% | 34% | 20% | 34% | 14% | ** | ** | 28% | ** | 24% | 38% | 31% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 33% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 33% | 33% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 1% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 0% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 0% | ** | 0% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 9% | 6% | 0% | ** | ** | 5% | ** | 5% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Campa-Najjar Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 19% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 64% | 74% | 21% | 8% | 76% | 15% | 1% | 7% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 8% | 38% | 52% | 7% | 55% | 38% | 69% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 97% | 4% | 76% | 6% | 36% | 58% | 22% | 28% | 51% | 25% | 74% | 66% | 34% | 6% | 78% | 16% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 61% |
 | Do you cast your vote for Campa-Najjar enthusiastically? Or with reservations? |
| 218 Campa-Najjar Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 7.6 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Enthusiastically | 76% | 80% | 72% | 57% | 75% | 82% | 83% | 66% | 82% | 75% | 85% | 84% | 78% | 63% | ** | 66% | 73% | 81% | 74% | 70% | 73% | 80% | 63% | 74% | 82% | 72% | 89% | ** | ** | 78% | ** | 85% | 61% | 73% | 79% | 47% | 73% | 90% | 83% | 73% | 86% | 57% | 75% | 76% | 75% | 79% | 72% | 60% | 87% |
| With Reservations | 15% | 13% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 10% | 16% | 13% | 27% | ** | 34% | 20% | 13% | 0% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 8% | ** | ** | 15% | ** | 11% | 24% | 18% | 14% | 28% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 17% | 21% | 12% |
| Not Sure | 8% | 7% | 10% | 26% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 17% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 9% | 10% | ** | 0% | 7% | 7% | 26% | 0% | 7% | 10% | 25% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 3% | ** | ** | 8% | ** | 4% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 25% | 9% | 1% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 20% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Campa-Najjar Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 19% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 64% | 74% | 21% | 8% | 76% | 15% | 1% | 7% | 38% | 42% | 10% | 8% | 38% | 52% | 7% | 55% | 38% | 69% | 25% | 4% | 2% | 97% | 4% | 76% | 6% | 36% | 58% | 22% | 28% | 51% | 25% | 74% | 66% | 34% | 6% | 78% | 16% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 61% |
 | And in the November election for President, how do you vote? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or some other candidate? |
| 538 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely | Cast Ballot | 2020 POTUS Vote | 2016 POTUS Vote | Education | Income | Military HH | Home | Urbanicity | Suburban | Cell Phone / Lan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Almost C | 100% Cer | Already | By Mail | Early In | Election | Trump | Biden | Trump | Clinton | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Yes | No | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Men | Women | Cell Pho | Landline | |
| Donald Trump (R) | 49% | 50% | 49% | 44% | 46% | 55% | 49% | 45% | 52% | 51% | 39% | 86% | 4% | 44% | 97% | 82% | 35% | 4% | ** | 88% | 35% | 3% | 50% | 53% | 42% | 43% | 53% | 73% | 100% | 0% | 92% | 4% | 61% | 53% | 45% | 41% | 57% | 48% | 63% | 44% | 54% | 39% | 65% | 41% | 67% | 37% | 45% | 45% | 52% |
| Joe Biden (D) | 45% | 43% | 46% | 46% | 41% | 44% | 48% | 43% | 46% | 44% | 53% | 10% | 96% | 39% | 2% | 13% | 56% | 95% | ** | 9% | 56% | 95% | 31% | 43% | 53% | 53% | 42% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 6% | 94% | 31% | 43% | 49% | 48% | 38% | 48% | 34% | 50% | 42% | 53% | 30% | 52% | 31% | 54% | 51% | 44% | 45% |
| Some Other Candidate | 4% | 6% | 1% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 11% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 0% | ** | 2% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 0% | 7% | 1% |
| Undecided | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | ** | 1% | 2% | 1% | 13% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 18% | 21% | 32% | 29% | 39% | 61% | 77% | 18% | 45% | 34% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 31% | 19% | 4% | 42% | 31% | 24% | 9% | 61% | 30% | 58% | 25% | 15% | 49% | 45% | 48% | 34% | 10% | 39% | 50% | 20% | 33% | 47% | 31% | 69% | 71% | 29% | 11% | 65% | 23% | 32% | 31% | 43% | 57% |