Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27357

Washington State Initiative Measure 2117 Looking Unpopular With Voters, But 1 in 5 are Undecided and Others May Be Confused: Initiative Measure 2117, which would ban state imposition of carbon tax credit trading and repeal an existing cap and invest program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, appears to be headed for defeat, according to SurveyUSA's newest polling for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, and the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public. 30% of likely voters today say they would vote yes on the measure, 48% would vote no; 22% say they are undecided. Conservative voters support the measure by a 22-point margin, 51% to 29%; liberals oppose by 52 points, 69% to 17%. Moderates are opposed by a 16-point margin, 45% to 29%. Women oppose by 25 points; men by 11. Opposition increases with age; Those under age 35 oppose by a 4-point margin, which increases to 16 points among those 35 to 49, to 19 points among those 50 to 64, and to 32 points among those over age 65. With 22% of likely voters undecided, any outcome is technically possible, but SurveyUSA would view passage of I-2117 unlikely for a number of reasons: First, and having nothing to do with I-2117 specifically, opposition to all ballot measures tends to increase as Election Day nears. I-2117 is, in SurveyUSA's opinion as professional question-writers, confusing: a vote of yes to enact the measure into law – two positive words – would prohibit and repeal – both negative words – legislation. Voters are inclined to vote against things they feel they do not properly understand. Margins of support for the measure among those groups where support outweighs opposition are not nearly as large as margins of opposition among the groups which are opposed. Support only rises to 50% or greater among conservatives (and among those who say border security is the top issue in their vote this year); opposition, which rises to a high of 69% among liberals, is greater than 50% among those over age 50 and in both Eastern and Western Washington outside of Metro Seattle. Fully crosstabbed results follow ...

About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Washington State adults 10/09/2024 through 10/14/2024. Of the adults, 860 were registered to vote; of the registered voters, 703 were identified as being likely to vote in the November 5 general election and were asked the substantive question which follows. This research was conducted online among a representative nonprobability sample of Washington adults, selected at random by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Adult respondents were weighted to US Census American Community Survey targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to 2020 recalled Presidential vote.

1	Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington?

1000 Adults	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race					Parent		Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			Likely November		Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Top Issue								2020 President		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 2.9 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other	Yes	No	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Certain	Likely	Trump	Harris	Ferguson	Reichert	Garcia	Cantwell	Abortion	Border S	Climate	Cost Of	Crime	Guns	Homeless	Protecti	Trump	Biden	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	W WA	E WA	Metro Se
Yes	86%	88%	85%	80%	84%	89%	94%	82%	91%	88%	**	84%	70%	93%	88%	85%	92%	92%	85%	84%	84%	89%	93%	97%	84%	89%	95%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	**	100%	100%	95%	96%	78%	87%	91%	78%	88%	92%	91%	78%	84%	89%	83%	82%	89%	87%
No	13%	11%	14%	18%	15%	10%	6%	17%	8%	11%	**	15%	30%	7%	11%	14%	7%	8%	12%	16%	14%	11%	7%	3%	15%	11%	5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4%	3%	20%	11%	8%	20%	11%	7%	9%	20%	14%	11%	16%	17%	10%	12%
Not Sure	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	**	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	0%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Adults	100%	50%	50%	30%	26%	23%	21%	56%	44%	67%	4%	12%	9%	9%	34%	65%	24%	37%	29%	8%	19%	36%	15%	14%	26%	36%	29%	67%	15%	35%	57%	50%	34%	32%	55%	12%	12%	9%	27%	5%	5%	6%	16%	29%	44%	28%	35%	37%	32%	35%	32%	64%	36%	28%	49%	23%	29%	28%	43%

2	The state of Washington will hold a general election for president, governor and for other contests this November. Not everyone votes in every election. Would you say you are ... ?

860 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race					Parent		Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			Likely November		Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Top Issue								2020 President		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other	Yes	No	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Certain	Likely	Trump	Harris	Ferguson	Reichert	Garcia	Cantwell	Abortion	Border S	Climate	Cost Of	Crime	Guns	Homeless	Protecti	Trump	Biden	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	W WA	E WA	Metro Se
Certain Not To Vote	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	**	2%	1%	1%	2%	3%	3%	1%	4%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3%	2%	4%	3%	2%	5%	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	2%	5%	6%	1%	2%
Unlikely To Vote	3%	3%	3%	5%	5%	1%	0%	5%	0%	2%	**	7%	3%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%	4%	0%	4%	3%	4%	0%	3%	3%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2%	1%	6%	3%	1%	4%	4%	1%	1%	6%	3%	4%	1%	3%	3%	3%
Maybe 50% / 50%	11%	11%	12%	21%	17%	4%	2%	19%	3%	7%	**	15%	22%	28%	18%	8%	8%	9%	12%	13%	7%	16%	11%	2%	9%	16%	7%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	7%	9%	19%	8%	10%	12%	10%	12%	9%	16%	14%	11%	9%	15%	9%	11%
Likely To Vote	15%	16%	14%	22%	20%	10%	5%	21%	7%	14%	**	17%	23%	5%	20%	12%	22%	8%	16%	18%	19%	14%	10%	10%	19%	14%	10%	0%	100%	25%	12%	11%	19%	19%	12%	10%	12%	18%	26%	35%	**	21%	8%	19%	9%	17%	15%	13%	19%	14%	12%	12%	19%	14%	14%	18%	16%	12%	16%
100% Certain To Vote	67%	66%	68%	48%	53%	81%	90%	50%	86%	72%	**	56%	47%	65%	54%	75%	65%	77%	65%	65%	67%	64%	72%	82%	66%	64%	77%	100%	0%	75%	88%	89%	81%	81%	88%	90%	88%	82%	74%	65%	**	79%	92%	69%	78%	52%	70%	74%	58%	69%	72%	73%	55%	66%	69%	64%	60%	73%	68%
Not Sure	1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	**	3%	3%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%	1%	0%	3%	0%	1%	2%	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0%	1%	3%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	0%	3%	1%	2%	1%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	51%	49%	28%	25%	24%	23%	53%	47%	68%	4%	11%	7%	10%	35%	64%	25%	39%	29%	8%	18%	37%	16%	16%	26%	37%	32%	67%	15%	35%	57%	50%	34%	32%	55%	12%	12%	9%	27%	5%	5%	6%	16%	32%	49%	25%	35%	39%	29%	36%	35%	67%	33%	27%	51%	22%	28%	29%	43%

3

Next, Initiative Measure No. 2117 concerns carbon tax credit trading. This measure would prohibit state agencies from imposing any type of carbon tax credit trading, and repeal legislation establishing a cap and invest program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This measure would decrease funding for investments in transportation, clean air, renewable energy, conservation and emissions-reduction. Should this measure be enacted into law?

703 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race					Parent		Party Affiliation			Ideology					Ideology Aggregated			Likely November		Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Top Issue								2020 President		Education			Income			Home		Urbanicity			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other	Yes	No	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Very Con	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Very Lib	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Certain	Likely	Trump	Harris	Ferguson	Reichert	Garcia	Cantwell	Abortion	Border S	Climate	Cost Of	Crime	Guns	Homeless	Protecti	Trump	Biden	High Sch	Some Col	4-Year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Own	Rent	Urban	Suburban	Rural	W WA	E WA	Metro Se
Yes	30%	35%	25%	32%	32%	30%	27%	32%	28%	28%	**	27%	39%	45%	35%	28%	38%	23%	35%	51%	50%	29%	15%	18%	51%	29%	17%	32%	23%	46%	23%	22%	49%	48%	22%	15%	59%	32%	30%	28%	**	8%	23%	44%	23%	35%	26%	31%	25%	25%	38%	33%	22%	22%	34%	30%	27%	24%	36%
No	48%	46%	50%	36%	48%	49%	59%	42%	54%	48%	**	53%	38%	46%	41%	52%	35%	59%	47%	34%	27%	45%	69%	69%	29%	45%	69%	49%	45%	34%	59%	65%	31%	34%	60%	66%	24%	49%	47%	31%	**	67%	67%	38%	57%	45%	53%	46%	48%	53%	43%	48%	50%	55%	46%	47%	54%	55%	40%
Undecided	22%	19%	25%	32%	20%	22%	15%	26%	18%	24%	**	20%	23%	9%	24%	20%	27%	18%	19%	15%	23%	26%	16%	13%	20%	26%	14%	20%	32%	20%	19%	14%	20%	17%	17%	19%	17%	19%	24%	40%	**	25%	10%	18%	20%	20%	21%	24%	26%	22%	19%	19%	29%	23%	20%	24%	19%	21%	24%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	51%	49%	24%	22%	26%	27%	47%	53%	72%	3%	10%	6%	8%	31%	68%	27%	41%	28%	8%	19%	36%	16%	18%	27%	36%	34%	82%	18%	35%	57%	50%	34%	32%	55%	12%	12%	9%	27%	5%	5%	6%	16%	34%	53%	21%	37%	42%	27%	37%	36%	71%	29%	26%	51%	22%	26%	30%	44%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.