| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13903 |
| Adams On Edge: Will City of Portland OR Have a Mayoral Runoff in November? Hours until votes are counted in the Portland Oregon mayoral primary, City Commissioner Sam Adams is perched on a wire, 13 points ahead of the nearest of his competitors and 1 percentage point away from winning office outright and avoiding a November runoff. Today, 05/19/08, it's Adams 49%, businessman Sho Dozono 36%, according to this latest exclusive KATU-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 11% say they would vote for one of the 11 other candidates in the race; 5% are undecided. The results are essentially unchanged from identical SurveyUSA polling released five days ago, when Adams led by 14 points. Adams continues to lead among all voters under age 65; Dozono continues to lead only among those 65+. Adams' largest lead is among the youngest voters, 59% of whom back him. Should younger voters return their ballots in slightly higher numbers than forecast, and/or should undecided voters split evenly for the top two candidates, and/or should support for minor candidates be less than SurveyUSA here measures, Adams may reach 50% and win the race tomorrow. |
| Filtering: 1,000 city of Portland adults were interviewed 05/16/08 through 05/18/08. Of them, 927 were registered to vote. Of them, 724 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned their ballots or to be likely to vote in the 05/20/08 non-partisan mayoral primary. All voting is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08. |
 | If you were filling out your ballot today for Portland Mayor, would you vote for... (names rotated) Sam Adams? Sho Dozono? Or some other candidate? |
| 724 Likely And Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Top Issue For Next Mayor | ||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Actual V | Likely V | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Police O | Roads | Schools | City Spe | Taxes | Sewer An | |
| Adams | 49% | 47% | 51% | 59% | 51% | 46% | 41% | 54% | 44% | 51% | 40% | 33% | ** | 49% | 50% | 19% | 56% | 51% | 15% | 43% | 67% | 46% | 52% | 61% | 32% | 27% | ** |
| Dozono | 36% | 38% | 33% | 25% | 32% | 39% | 47% | 29% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 45% | ** | 38% | 31% | 60% | 31% | 32% | 66% | 44% | 21% | 38% | 37% | 25% | 54% | 45% | ** |
| Other | 11% | 11% | 10% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 21% | ** | 10% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 14% | 16% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 21% | ** |
| Undecided | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 1% | ** | 4% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 7% | ** |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely And Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 18% | 30% | 33% | 19% | 49% | 51% | 85% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 71% | 29% | 16% | 70% | 13% | 13% | 32% | 43% | 7% | 17% | 36% | 19% | 7% | 4% |