Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20544 |
At Finish Line, L.A. Mayor Teeter-Totter Tips to Garcetti; Marijuana Measure 'F' is Broadly Backed; Feuer and Zine Run Strong Down-Ballot:
24 hours till votes are counted in the contest for Mayor of Los Angeles, Eric Garcetti appears to have momentum, following a campaign in which opponent Wendy Greuel trailed then led then trailed, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV. At the wire, it's Garcetti 49%, Greuel 44%, with Garcetti's margin of victory coming largely from his strength among male voters, where he leads by 14 points. Whites favor Garcetti by single digits, Hispanics favor Garcetti by double digits, leaving Greuel little leverage as Election Day voters head to the polls. Democrats narrowly favor Greuel, but Republicans and Independents materially favor Garcetti, giving him the partisan advantage. The more affluent a voter is, the more likely to vote for Garcetti. The less educated a voter is, the more likely to vote for Greuel. Of 3 competing medical marijuana initiatives:
* Measure F leads 2:1, 53% to 26%. In the contest for City Controller, Dennis Zine is poised to defeat Ron Galperin. In 4 SurveyUSA polls over the past 6 weeks, Zine has never trailed. On Election Eve, he leads by 8 points, 44% to 36%, broadly backed by conservatives and Republicans. In the contest for City Attorney, challenger Mike Feuer defeats Carmen Trutanich 52% to 34% in SurveyUSA's final reckoning. Trutanich had closed to within single digits in SurveyUSA's penultimate poll, released 05/09/13, but Feuer appears to pull away at the finish line. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 city of Los Angeles adults 05/15/13 through 05/18/13. Of the adults, 862 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 573 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before polls close this Tuesday 05/21/13. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (86% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (14% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
If the election for Los Angeles Mayor were today, who would you vote for? Eric Garcetti? Or Wendy Greuel? |
573 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Eric Garcetti | 49% | 53% | 46% | 53% | 51% | 45% | 49% | 52% | 47% | 51% | 31% | 57% | 43% | 59% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 46% | 57% | 51% | 50% | 49% | 41% | 49% | 52% | 46% | 49% | 54% | 43% | 80% | 10% | 74% | 42% |
Wendy Greuel | 44% | 39% | 48% | 37% | 44% | 47% | 45% | 41% | 46% | 43% | 60% | 37% | 46% | 34% | 45% | 45% | 42% | 37% | 49% | 32% | 43% | 43% | 46% | 53% | 43% | 41% | 45% | 45% | 40% | 46% | 16% | 87% | 15% | 42% |
Undecided | 7% | 9% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 16% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |
Los Angeles will also elect a City Attorney. If the election for City Attorney were today, who would you vote for? Carmen Trutanich? Or Mike Feuer? |
573 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Carmen Trutanich | 34% | 33% | 35% | 40% | 35% | 28% | 33% | 37% | 31% | 33% | 35% | 39% | 25% | 46% | 32% | 38% | 31% | 50% | 30% | 31% | 49% | 34% | 23% | 36% | 35% | 33% | 33% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 27% | 37% | 49% | 29% |
Mike Feuer | 52% | 54% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 46% | 58% | 55% | 48% | 47% | 57% | 41% | 54% | 54% | 50% | 41% | 58% | 45% | 39% | 54% | 63% | 48% | 50% | 55% | 52% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 65% | 53% | 40% | 38% |
Undecided | 14% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 9% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 16% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 19% | 10% | 12% | 24% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 32% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |
Los Angeles will also elect a City Controller. If the election for City Controller were today, who would you vote for? Dennis Zine? Or Ron Galperin? |
573 Actual & Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Dennis Zine | 44% | 43% | 44% | 34% | 47% | 45% | 49% | 41% | 47% | 46% | 50% | 40% | 37% | 43% | 44% | 48% | 41% | 48% | 46% | 31% | 51% | 46% | 39% | 44% | 47% | 42% | 45% | 41% | 44% | 52% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 34% |
Ron Galperin | 36% | 38% | 35% | 43% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 35% | 30% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 34% | 36% | 44% | 34% | 37% | 41% | 36% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 38% | 35% | 44% | 39% | 41% | 21% |
Undecided | 20% | 19% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 14% | 23% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 14% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 25% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 45% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |
573 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Yes | 49% | 48% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 47% | 45% | 52% | 46% | 46% | 41% | 56% | 53% | 74% | 46% | 59% | 42% | 51% | 50% | 44% | 53% | 50% | 49% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 49% | 51% | 51% | 56% | 51% | 50% | 35% |
No | 27% | 31% | 22% | 29% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 25% | 28% | 18% | 18% | 28% | 26% | 27% | 26% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 29% | 27% | 29% | 25% | 27% | 26% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 32% |
Not Certain | 24% | 21% | 27% | 18% | 22% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 28% | 26% | 33% | 16% | 28% | 8% | 27% | 15% | 31% | 22% | 23% | 28% | 26% | 20% | 24% | 21% | 27% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 31% | 17% | 23% | 25% | 33% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |
573 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Yes | 26% | 25% | 27% | 33% | 30% | 18% | 21% | 32% | 20% | 23% | 28% | 33% | 17% | 57% | 21% | 34% | 19% | 31% | 26% | 20% | 32% | 25% | 24% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 29% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 28% | 29% | 26% | 19% |
No | 47% | 53% | 40% | 46% | 42% | 52% | 47% | 44% | 49% | 50% | 35% | 45% | 48% | 32% | 49% | 50% | 44% | 46% | 47% | 50% | 44% | 52% | 46% | 42% | 43% | 51% | 42% | 45% | 53% | 44% | 48% | 47% | 54% | 38% |
Not Certain | 28% | 22% | 33% | 20% | 27% | 31% | 32% | 24% | 31% | 27% | 37% | 22% | 35% | 11% | 30% | 16% | 36% | 24% | 27% | 30% | 24% | 23% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 23% | 30% | 24% | 24% | 20% | 43% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |
573 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Cell Phone / Lan | When Will You Vo | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | Vote in Primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Cell Pho | Landline | Early | On Elect | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Jan Perr | Eric Gar | Wendy Gr | Kevin Ja | Did Not | |
Yes | 53% | 56% | 50% | 65% | 56% | 47% | 46% | 60% | 47% | 49% | 49% | 64% | 47% | 75% | 50% | 56% | 51% | 48% | 56% | 51% | 52% | 56% | 54% | 53% | 55% | 53% | 55% | 57% | 50% | 57% | 59% | 53% | 45% | 55% |
No | 26% | 28% | 24% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 27% | 22% | 30% | 29% | 21% | 22% | 29% | 14% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 34% | 24% | 22% | 31% | 26% | 23% | 21% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 22% | 32% | 18% | 28% | 25% | 37% | 18% |
Not Certain | 21% | 16% | 25% | 13% | 22% | 20% | 27% | 18% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 14% | 24% | 11% | 22% | 13% | 26% | 18% | 19% | 28% | 17% | 18% | 23% | 25% | 19% | 20% | 22% | 21% | 18% | 25% | 13% | 22% | 18% | 26% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 49% | 46% | 11% | 31% | 12% | 14% | 86% | 45% | 53% | 21% | 63% | 15% | 24% | 40% | 30% | 14% | 30% | 55% | 28% | 34% | 39% | 8% | 31% | 29% | 11% | 13% |