| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21288 |
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In San Jose Mayoral Primary, Cortese and Liccardo Likely to Advance to November General Election: David Cortese at 26% and Sam Liccardo at 20% are well positioned to advance to the general election, heading into the final weekend before the 06/03/14 Primary, according to a SurveyUSA poll of city of San Jose likely voters conducted exclusively for KPIX-TV, the CBS-owned affiliate in San Francisco. 8 candidates are on the Mayoral Primary ballot, but only 1 other makes it into double digits: Madison Nguyen at 11%. The 5 remaining candidates are in single digits. The top 2 finishers advance to a 11/04/14 runoff. Cortese has a strong coalition of women, Democrats and liberals. Liccardo shows more strength among Republicans, Independents and the most affluent voters. Nguyen's support is younger, which makes it slightly less reliable in a low-turnout, off-year primary, compared to the 2 frontrunners, whose support is older. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 city of San Jose adults 05/15/14 through 05/21/14. Of the adults, 753 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 461 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or, were determined to be certain to return a ballot before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. |
| 1 | If the primary election for San Jose Mayor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Pierluigi Oliverio? Dave Cortese? Bill Chew? Timothy Harrison? Rose Herrera? Michael Alfred Alvarado? Madison Nguyen? Or Sam Liccardo? |
| 461 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Voted | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Education | Income | |||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Already | Likely E | Likely D | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | |
| Pierluigi Oliverio | 8% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 10% | ** | 3% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Dave Cortese | 26% | 22% | 31% | 13% | 34% | 27% | 32% | 24% | 29% | 24% | ** | 27% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 27% | 21% | 28% | 19% | 32% | 19% | 22% | 27% | 32% | 16% | 25% | 29% | 24% | 27% | 28% |
| Bill Chew | 3% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 1% | ** | 4% | 5% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| Timothy Harrison | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | ** | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Rose Herrera | 7% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 4% | ** | 9% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
| Michael Alfred Alvarado | 3% | 6% | 1% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | ** | 8% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Madison Nguyen | 11% | 12% | 11% | 19% | 2% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 13% | 12% | ** | 4% | 17% | 18% | 11% | 7% | 16% | 9% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 17% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 7% |
| Sam Liccardo | 20% | 21% | 18% | 20% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 16% | 23% | 23% | ** | 25% | 11% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 11% | 23% | 23% | 16% | 25% | 21% | 22% | 15% | 7% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 11% | 26% |
| Undecided | 22% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 35% | 21% | 14% | 25% | 18% | 21% | ** | 19% | 25% | 8% | 23% | 28% | 31% | 18% | 28% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 29% | 16% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 54% | 46% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 43% | 4% | 23% | 30% | 22% | 44% | 34% | 28% | 72% | 19% | 60% | 19% | 21% | 47% | 27% | 9% | 27% | 64% | 19% | 26% | 55% |