Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14336
No Bounce Either Way in VA After 2 Political Conventions; State Still In-Play: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it's McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%.

Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain.

There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote.

There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/05/08 through 09/07/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the adults, 807 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 717 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
717 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad< $50K> $50KShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McCain (R)49%54%43%39%47%52%59%44%55%43%63%53%59%14%**37%85%10%55%81%37%11%48%50%54%40%47%73%30%39%51%43%51%60%41%42%51%
Obama (D)47%43%51%55%48%43%38%51%41%52%37%43%37%84%**58%11%89%34%15%58%88%48%45%42%55%50%24%65%42%47%49%46%36%57%50%45%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%34%25%17%58%42%51%8%41%73%19%3%6%35%36%20%35%39%12%58%42%53%25%21%44%52%12%86%29%71%24%24%24%27%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.