| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26593 |
| Washington State: Republican Tiffany Smiley Closes Gap, May Give Incumbent Dem Patty Murray Washington's Closest Senate Race Since 2010:
In an election today for United States Senator from Washington State, incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray defeats Republican Tiffany Smiley 49% to 41%, according to SurveyUSA's latest polling conducted exclusively for The Seattle Times, KING 5 TV, the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, and Washington State University's Murrow College of Communication. 10% of likely voters are undecided. Compared to SurveyUSA's previous poll in July, Murray is down 2 points and Smiley is up 8, causing a 18-point lead to shrink today to an 8-point lead. Among men, Murray had led by 2 points, now trails by 6. Among women, Murray had led by 34, now leads by 20. Smiley has cut into Murray's leads among 18 to 34 year-old and 35 to 49 year-old voters, and has moved ahead among voters age 50 to 64, where Murray had led by 14, now trails by 13 – but Murray has widened her lead among voters age 65+, typically the most reliable, where she had led by 10, now leads by 23. Regionally, Murray leads by 19 points in Metro Seattle and by 8 points elsewhere in Western Washington; Smiley leads by 14 points in Eastern Washington. On the issues voters say will most impact their votes this fall, Murray leads by 58 points among those most focused on abortion and by 53 points among those most focused on climate change. Smiley leads by 75 points among voters who say border security is the most important issue, by 28 among those focused on inflation, and by 45 points among those who say crime is the most important issue. Washington's other incumbent US Senator, Democrat Maria Cantwell, won re-election by 17 points in 2018 and by 21 points in 2012; Murray won re-election to her fifth term in 2016 by an 18-point margin. Prior to that, Murray won her 2010 race, against Republican Dino Rossi, by fewer than 5 percentage points – the last time a Senate race in Washington State could be called close. In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Democrat Steve Hobbs leads non-partisan candidate Julie Anderson 40% to 29%, with 30% undecided – overwhelmingly Republicans and independents. Hobbs leads by 20 points among women, and by a nominal single point among men. Anderson edges Hobbs by 4 points among those age 50 to 64, trails by double-digits among both younger and older voters. 53% of Republicans today say they will vote for Anderson, 3% for Hobbs – with 44% undecided. 45% of independents say they will vote for Anderson, 18% for Hobbs – with 37% undecided. Democrats back Hobbs, 81% to 5% – with 15% undecided. Hobbs leads by 15 points in Metro Seattle, 14 points in the rest of Western Washington; the contest is tied in Eastern Washington. Full results follow ... |
| About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 875 Washington State adults online 10/14/22 through 10/19/22, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 719 were identified as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November election and were asked the questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of Washington? |
| 875 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | November Voting Issue | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 3.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Inflatio | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Yes | 82% | 81% | 84% | 70% | 85% | 88% | 93% | 76% | 90% | 88% | ** | 63% | 73% | 93% | 90% | 76% | 93% | 84% | 82% | 92% | 88% | 88% | 82% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 90% | 95% | 84% | 84% | 75% | 84% | 88% | 72% | 86% | 89% | 90% | 70% | 81% | 83% | 83% | 85% | 82% | 80% |
| No | 14% | 16% | 13% | 25% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 19% | 8% | 10% | ** | 30% | 22% | 6% | 9% | 20% | 4% | 14% | 15% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 15% | 7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 23% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 24% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 16% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | ** | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 50% | 50% | 32% | 24% | 26% | 19% | 56% | 44% | 69% | 3% | 11% | 18% | 23% | 36% | 32% | 10% | 15% | 40% | 18% | 8% | 26% | 40% | 25% | 20% | 62% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 22% | 31% | 42% | 30% | 66% | 31% | 34% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 33% | 62% | 38% | 26% | 49% | 25% | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| 2 | The state of Washington will hold a general election for United States Senate and for other contests this November. Not everyone makes the time to vote in every election. Would you say you are ... ? |
| 719 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | November Voting Issue | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Inflatio | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Certain Not To Vote | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | ** | 12% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% |
| Unlikely To Vote | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 1% | 3% | ** | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Maybe 50% / 50% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 18% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 17% | 4% | 8% | ** | 23% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 14% | 13% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 5% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 9% | 8% | 18% | 7% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 12% |
| Likely To Vote | 20% | 19% | 21% | 26% | 27% | 14% | 10% | 27% | 12% | 19% | ** | 19% | 22% | 21% | 18% | 18% | 9% | 23% | 24% | 17% | 8% | 17% | 24% | 15% | 100% | 0% | 21% | 14% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 21% | 23% | 20% | 18% | 24% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 25% | 23% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 20% | 21% |
| 100% Certain To Vote | 62% | 61% | 63% | 43% | 48% | 75% | 87% | 45% | 80% | 66% | ** | 36% | 59% | 65% | 69% | 57% | 72% | 67% | 54% | 72% | 82% | 69% | 54% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 79% | 86% | 74% | 69% | 78% | 67% | 73% | 57% | 65% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 54% | 62% | 69% | 69% | 47% | 56% | 64% | 65% | 64% | 64% | 60% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ** | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 27% | 25% | 28% | 21% | 51% | 49% | 73% | 3% | 8% | 16% | 26% | 40% | 30% | 12% | 16% | 40% | 20% | 8% | 27% | 40% | 28% | 20% | 62% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 22% | 34% | 48% | 30% | 68% | 28% | 35% | 37% | 30% | 34% | 36% | 68% | 32% | 25% | 49% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 45% |
 | If the election for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 589 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | November Voting Issue | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Inflatio | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Tiffany Smiley (R) | 41% | 49% | 35% | 37% | 39% | 51% | 36% | 38% | 44% | 43% | ** | 53% | 34% | 94% | 4% | 50% | 88% | 81% | 40% | 6% | 3% | 84% | 40% | 5% | 41% | 41% | 18% | 83% | 21% | 69% | 59% | 90% | 8% | 37% | 43% | 63% | 35% | 33% | 41% | 45% | 38% | 43% | 38% | 30% | 41% | 52% | 41% | 54% | 35% |
| Patty Murray (D) | 49% | 43% | 55% | 52% | 50% | 38% | 59% | 51% | 48% | 48% | ** | 38% | 55% | 1% | 92% | 34% | 9% | 9% | 46% | 89% | 96% | 9% | 46% | 91% | 40% | 52% | 76% | 8% | 74% | 24% | 31% | 3% | 86% | 55% | 47% | 26% | 55% | 59% | 44% | 49% | 53% | 49% | 48% | 62% | 49% | 36% | 49% | 40% | 54% |
| Undecided | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 4% | 12% | 8% | 9% | ** | 8% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 17% | 3% | 10% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 13% | 4% | 19% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 15% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 14% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 6% | 11% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | 45% | 55% | 76% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 27% | 42% | 28% | 11% | 17% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 29% | 39% | 30% | 24% | 76% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 22% | 36% | 52% | 27% | 71% | 25% | 37% | 38% | 29% | 34% | 37% | 72% | 28% | 24% | 50% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 44% |
| 4 | If the election for Washington Secretary of State were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) |
| 589 Likely November Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | Likely November | November Voting Issue | 2020 Vote | Parent | Education | Income | Home | Urbanicity | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Likely | Certain | Abortion | Border S | Climate | Crime | Inflatio | Trump | Biden | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-Year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Own | Rent | Urban | Suburban | Rural | W WA | E WA | Metro Se | |
| Steve Hobbs (D) | 40% | 37% | 43% | 47% | 39% | 30% | 48% | 43% | 38% | 39% | ** | 28% | 48% | 3% | 81% | 18% | 11% | 10% | 35% | 69% | 89% | 10% | 35% | 75% | 33% | 43% | 61% | 13% | 61% | 20% | 24% | 4% | 71% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 42% | 49% | 34% | 40% | 46% | 41% | 39% | 58% | 38% | 29% | 42% | 30% | 45% |
| Julie Anderson (N) | 29% | 36% | 23% | 26% | 28% | 34% | 27% | 27% | 31% | 31% | ** | 36% | 25% | 53% | 5% | 45% | 58% | 52% | 30% | 8% | 5% | 54% | 30% | 7% | 28% | 30% | 15% | 57% | 22% | 41% | 38% | 56% | 10% | 26% | 30% | 38% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 29% | 29% | 19% | 32% | 33% | 28% | 30% | 30% |
| Undecided | 30% | 27% | 33% | 27% | 33% | 36% | 25% | 30% | 31% | 31% | ** | 36% | 26% | 44% | 15% | 37% | 31% | 38% | 35% | 23% | 7% | 35% | 35% | 18% | 39% | 28% | 24% | 30% | 17% | 38% | 38% | 40% | 19% | 24% | 33% | 38% | 31% | 25% | 39% | 29% | 25% | 30% | 31% | 24% | 29% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely November Voters | 100% | 48% | 52% | 23% | 22% | 30% | 25% | 45% | 55% | 76% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 27% | 42% | 28% | 11% | 17% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 29% | 39% | 30% | 24% | 76% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 22% | 36% | 52% | 27% | 71% | 25% | 37% | 38% | 29% | 34% | 37% | 72% | 28% | 24% | 50% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 44% |