Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #26046
 
Statewide, Majority of CA Voters Back Newsom Recall; YouTube's "Meet Kevin" Paffrath, Radio's Larry Elder Lead Pack of Potential Replacements:

51% of likely voters in California's upcoming gubernatorial recall election today would vote Yes to recall incumbent California Governor Gavin Newsom, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KGTV 10News and The San Diego Tribune.

40% would vote No, to keep Newsom in office.

Republicans support recall by an 8:1 margin; Democrats oppose by a smaller 3:1 margin. Independents support recalling the Governor by 5:3. Those who have been partially or fully vaccinated against the Coronavirus narrowly back recall, 47% to 43%; those who have not been vaccinated, 18% of likely voters, support recalling Newsom by a 40-point margin. White voters vote to recall Newsom by a 21-point margin, 56% to 35%; Latinos narrowly vote to recall, 47% to 41%. Black voters vote no, to keep Newsom, by a 52-point margin; Asians vote no by a 37-point margin. "Likely" voters vote No, 43% to 36%; "100% certain" voters break Yes by 3:2.

SurveyUSA then asked likely voters which candidate they would vote for to replace Newsom. After excluding the 11% of likely voters who said they would leave this question blank, two candidates lead, clustered fairly closely together:
  • Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTuber and real estate broker, takes 27% of the replacement vote today. Paffrath draws particular support from younger voters, Latinos, Democrats and liberals, and leads 12:1 among those who who are opposed to recalling Newsom. Paffrath leads 2:1 in greater Los Angeles and by 35 points in urban parts of the state.
  • Republican Larry Elder, a talk radio host, attorney, and documentary filmmaker, takes 23%. Elder runs strongly among older voters, among Republicans and conservatives, and leads among independents 27% to 19%. Elder leads 2:1 in the Inland Empire and by 30 points in rural CA.
Just one other named candidate breaks into double digits, noted bear aficionado and Newsom's 2018 opponent, John Cox, who is at 10% today.

When asked why Newsom should be recalled, a majority of those supporting his recall point to COVID-related issues: 34% cite Newsom's handling of COVID restrictions; 13% the closures of businesses; 4% the closures of schools. Another 10% point to Newsom's attendance at a party while the state was in lockdown. 18% say Newsom's spending decisions are the main reason he should be recalled; 12% say the mishandling of unemployment dollars.

Among California registered voters, 28% say the laws controlling the process of recalling a governor should be made easier; 13% say it should be made more difficult; the plurality, 34%, say the laws should be left as they are.

46 candidates are on the recall election ballot; to qualify, candidates had to file a petition with between 65 and 100 signatures and pay a filing fee of just under $4,200. Candidates could also avoid the filing fee by collecting 7,000 signatures. What do CA registered voters think about that process? 38% say it's too easy to get your name on the ballot; another 38% say the process is just about right. Just 9%, overwhelmingly the youngest and most conservative voters, say it's currently too difficult.

Full results follow.
 
About the Poll / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 adults from the entire state of California 08/02/21 through 08/04/21, using sample provided by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. Of the adults, 888 were identified by SurveyUSA as being registered voters; of the registered voters, 613 were identified as being likely to vote in the September recall election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. The pool of adult survey respondents was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, and home ownership. This research was conducted online. In a recall election, much like in a ballot measure election, voters are asked to choose between change and the status quo, and polling does not always reflect the depth of preference many have for the status quo. In much the same way that opposition to the change represented by ballot measures tends to increase as an election nears, the same may be the case here, leading the status quo of not recalling the governor to outperform its polling.
 
1Are you registered to vote in the state of California?
1100 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes81%82%79%76%78%88%83%77%86%84%**73%81%100%100%100%100%85%71%89%88%73%88%80%83%85%92%83%83%87%90%93%87%79%67%84%90%73%77%92%89%71%80%82%75%76%85%77%82%
No17%16%17%21%20%10%14%21%12%14%**26%14%----13%27%10%10%23%12%19%16%12%8%16%16%11%8%6%12%18%30%14%7%22%21%7%10%26%17%15%22%22%13%19%14%
Not Sure2%1%4%3%2%1%3%3%2%2%**2%5%----2%2%0%2%4%0%1%1%3%0%1%1%2%2%1%2%3%3%2%2%5%2%1%2%3%3%2%2%2%1%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%29%26%24%21%55%45%59%4%27%10%20%49%51%40%75%22%27%42%24%11%19%36%18%8%29%36%26%29%48%30%70%32%32%36%31%37%32%54%46%40%49%11%25%38%21%16%
 
2California will hold a recall election in September on whether or not to remove Governor Gavin Newsom from office. Not everyone makes the time to vote in a recall election. Would you say you are ... ?
888 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Certain NOT To Vote 10%10%11%9%12%11%9%11%10%8%**18%10%0%0%--11%7%6%16%4%11%12%6%14%15%11%6%14%6%13%12%10%11%11%10%10%10%11%9%13%12%11%2%9%13%7%11%
Unlikely To Vote 6%6%7%13%5%6%0%9%3%4%**9%15%0%0%--5%11%2%7%9%3%4%6%12%5%3%6%9%2%5%5%7%11%6%4%8%6%6%4%10%6%6%6%4%6%8%9%
50% / 50% 10%11%10%20%12%5%2%16%4%6%**17%16%0%0%--10%12%4%13%13%8%9%11%16%4%8%11%12%3%13%13%9%12%11%9%11%12%9%9%13%12%8%14%7%14%7%10%
Likely To Vote 20%21%19%25%18%23%11%22%18%22%**16%17%100%0%20%31%20%18%11%23%24%12%13%25%18%30%13%25%22%12%25%21%19%16%21%21%22%20%17%16%24%24%17%14%20%21%16%21%
100% Certain To Vote49%49%50%28%48%51%76%38%62%57%**33%40%0%100%80%69%50%47%73%39%45%66%61%50%37%43%63%50%39%74%41%45%52%44%46%55%44%47%56%59%35%40%55%60%58%41%59%46%
Not Sure 4%3%5%5%5%3%1%5%2%3%**7%1%0%0%--3%5%3%2%5%0%2%2%3%2%1%2%3%3%3%3%4%5%5%2%4%6%1%3%4%6%2%5%3%6%2%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%28%25%27%21%52%48%61%4%24%10%20%49%51%40%79%20%29%46%22%11%19%38%19%9%30%38%28%32%56%31%69%27%33%40%28%35%36%60%40%40%50%10%24%40%20%16%
 
3Voters will be asked two separate questions in the recall election. The first will ask if Newsom should or should not be recalled. A yes vote means you want to remove Newsom as Governor. A no vote means you want Newsom to remain Governor. If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote yes, to remove Gavin Newsom from office? Or would you vote no, to keep Gavin Newsom in office as Governor?
613 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Yes To Remove51%52%50%51%48%47%57%50%52%56%**47%25%36%57%100%0%47%67%84%23%50%77%78%49%13%25%78%49%18%88%22%49%51%57%55%45%53%50%50%52%48%44%53%66%58%44%57%44%
No To Keep40%40%40%34%45%45%35%39%40%35%**41%62%43%39%0%100%43%27%12%67%33%19%12%41%78%64%15%41%72%7%67%41%40%34%32%48%37%38%43%40%40%46%38%27%33%44%34%50%
Undecided9%8%10%15%7%8%7%11%8%8%**13%13%22%4%0%0%10%6%4%10%16%4%9%10%10%11%7%10%10%5%10%11%9%9%13%7%10%11%7%8%12%10%9%7%8%12%9%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%21%24%29%27%45%55%70%4%17%8%28%72%51%40%81%18%36%41%22%13%20%41%15%10%33%41%25%40%53%30%70%24%32%44%27%34%38%65%35%37%52%11%27%36%21%16%
 
4The second question will ask who should replace Newsom and serve out the rest of his term if he is removed from office.
Regardless of how you vote on the first question, you will have the opportunity to also vote on who should replace Newsom if he is recalled.

If you were filling out your ballot right now, which one of these candidates on the ballot to replace Newsom would you vote for? Or, will you leave this question on your ballot blank?
(Candidate names shown to respondents in random order; ranked here for ease of comprehension)

[Voters who said they would leave this question blank were excluded from this question]

545 Likely Voters Who Will Vote For a ReplacementAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 5.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Kevin Paffrath (D)27%31%23%35%39%21%15%37%18%24%**35%21%37%22%12%50%30%12%1%58%19%23%6%26%41%69%13%26%53%2%51%43%20%28%19%32%23%26%30%30%21%40%20%11%18%39%14%28%
Larry Elder (R)23%26%20%15%13%30%33%14%31%26%**19%14%8%30%38%4%21%35%42%2%27%33%49%16%2%11%43%16%5%46%3%13%28%19%26%23%18%21%28%25%19%15%25%41%24%19%32%20%
John Cox (R)10%10%9%9%11%7%14%10%10%12%**5%8%10%10%15%3%9%14%18%3%8%20%16%6%5%2%17%6%4%17%5%10%10%13%10%8%8%14%7%10%9%8%11%10%11%10%11%5%
Kevin Faulconer (R)5%5%6%3%5%2%11%4%6%4%**4%18%3%6%5%4%6%2%8%2%4%5%6%7%3%0%5%7%2%4%5%4%6%5%5%5%4%6%5%7%2%3%7%0%6%3%10%2%
Doug Ose (R)4%4%4%3%2%3%6%2%5%4%**5%0%1%5%5%2%4%2%5%3%1%2%3%5%4%0%3%5%2%7%1%2%4%5%6%1%9%2%1%3%4%1%4%7%8%1%5%0%
Caitlyn Jenner (R)4%3%4%5%6%2%2%6%2%4%**3%4%1%5%4%2%3%6%5%1%5%8%3%4%0%4%5%4%2%5%2%7%2%1%4%4%2%1%7%4%3%2%4%3%7%3%3%0%
Kevin Kiley (R)3%3%3%4%3%5%0%4%3%3%**4%5%4%3%3%3%3%3%4%1%4%3%1%5%1%2%2%5%1%4%3%5%2%1%3%4%3%3%3%3%3%4%3%0%3%3%4%4%
Some Other Candidate5%4%5%3%6%6%4%5%5%4%**6%6%4%5%2%10%5%4%2%7%6%1%2%6%12%4%1%6%9%2%7%3%6%5%4%5%5%6%4%3%9%7%3%9%5%4%4%8%
Undecided20%15%26%24%15%26%16%19%21%20%**19%24%31%15%15%22%19%23%13%22%26%6%16%25%32%8%12%25%22%13%23%13%23%22%24%16%27%20%15%15%30%19%21%20%19%18%17%32%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Who Will Vote For a Replacement100%51%49%22%24%28%26%46%54%71%3%17%8%29%71%56%33%80%19%39%38%22%14%22%41%12%9%36%41%21%45%49%31%69%25%33%43%27%35%38%66%34%37%52%10%27%37%21%15%
 
5Which of these reasons best describes why you think Newsom should be recalled?
(list of reasons rotated)
312 Likely Voters Who Vote To Recall NewsomAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 7.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
His Handling Of COVID Restrictions34%31%36%32%32%33%36%32%35%37%**19%**27%35%34%**32%39%38%29%27%46%35%29%****39%29%27%39%19%28%36%35%27%38%35%31%35%34%33%38%32%30%35%35%33%29%
Closures Of Schools4%5%3%5%7%5%1%6%3%5%**3%**7%3%4%**5%2%3%9%4%7%1%5%****3%5%9%2%9%10%1%4%3%6%2%4%6%5%4%6%4%3%2%10%2%0%
Closures Of Businesses13%14%11%15%8%13%15%11%14%14%**6%**12%13%13%**12%16%13%3%20%8%12%18%****10%18%7%14%10%11%14%12%15%11%15%12%11%10%18%3%16%22%11%7%20%18%
Attending a Party During Lockdown10%8%13%6%13%11%10%10%10%9%**17%**7%11%10%**11%8%8%19%10%7%4%15%****5%15%11%6%24%12%10%15%7%10%17%4%10%12%5%12%11%4%9%12%11%7%
Wildfires3%6%1%10%2%1%2%6%1%4%**3%**11%2%3%**4%3%1%9%3%4%0%3%****2%3%16%3%5%8%2%4%4%3%1%7%2%4%3%8%1%2%5%2%0%8%
Spending Decisions18%17%20%18%16%13%26%17%20%16%**29%**20%18%18%**20%14%19%19%16%9%29%14%****21%14%26%19%17%17%19%12%21%20%17%20%18%20%15%16%21%15%16%17%24%17%
Mishandling Of Unemployment Dollars12%13%10%9%18%17%4%14%10%10%**20%**14%11%12%**12%9%13%10%9%11%17%11%****15%11%1%10%14%12%12%13%15%7%7%15%12%9%16%16%9%13%14%12%9%12%
Some Other Reason5%5%5%3%4%6%7%3%6%5%**1%**2%6%5%**3%9%4%0%11%8%2%5%****4%5%0%5%0%2%5%5%6%4%6%5%5%5%4%1%6%11%7%3%2%10%
Not Sure1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%0%**2%**0%1%1%**1%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%****0%1%3%0%1%1%1%0%2%0%1%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters Who Vote To Recall Newsom100%52%48%21%22%26%30%43%57%78%2%16%4%20%80%100%0%75%24%59%19%22%20%31%39%4%5%50%39%9%70%23%29%71%26%34%39%28%34%38%67%33%32%54%14%30%31%24%14%
 
6Regardless of whether or how you will vote in the recall election, do you think California should change the law to make the process of recalling a governor easier? Leave the law alone? Change the law to make the process of recalling a governor more difficult? Or change the law to eliminate the ability to recall a governor?
888 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Change To Make Process Easier28%31%25%30%31%26%24%30%25%31%**25%20%24%36%47%14%26%36%40%20%29%46%40%25%15%24%42%25%18%45%20%38%23%35%27%23%28%23%32%31%23%30%26%26%29%26%39%16%
Leave The Law Alone34%38%30%33%31%34%40%32%36%36%**29%35%39%37%41%33%35%33%39%31%36%34%39%39%30%22%37%39%28%40%31%29%37%25%37%38%31%38%33%33%36%30%37%37%38%31%32%38%
Change To Make Process More Difficult13%14%12%13%11%16%12%12%14%14%**11%12%15%13%3%29%15%8%3%22%10%8%5%13%24%21%6%13%23%2%21%11%15%6%12%20%12%13%15%13%14%13%16%3%10%13%14%17%
Change The Ability To Recall7%6%8%5%7%4%11%6%7%4%**12%7%3%5%1%9%8%1%5%9%4%9%8%5%6%11%9%5%8%4%8%10%5%6%7%7%4%7%9%8%4%8%5%10%4%9%3%8%
Not Sure18%11%26%19%19%20%14%19%17%15%**23%26%19%10%8%16%16%22%13%18%21%3%8%18%25%22%6%18%24%9%19%12%20%28%17%13%26%19%11%15%23%18%17%24%18%20%12%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%28%25%27%21%52%48%61%4%24%10%20%49%51%40%79%20%29%46%22%11%19%38%19%9%30%38%28%32%56%31%69%27%33%40%28%35%36%60%40%40%50%10%24%40%20%16%
 
7To run as a candidate in the recall election, candidates had to file a petition with between 65 and 100 signatures in their home county, and pay a filing fee of just under $4,200. Candidates can also avoid the filing fee by collecting 7,000 signatures. Do you think the requirements for running as a candidate in the recall election are too easy? Too difficult? Or just about right?
888 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceLikely To VoteVote On RecallVaccinated?Party AffiliationIdeologyIdeology Aggregated2020 VotePublic School PaEducationIncomeHomeUrbanicityRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / LikelyCertainYesNoYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependVery ConConservaModerateLiberalVery LibConservaModerateLiberalTrumpBidenYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-Year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KOwnRentUrbanSuburbanRuralCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Too Easy38%37%40%32%45%39%37%38%39%41%**31%45%39%41%25%64%42%25%29%50%27%36%33%36%43%59%34%36%49%27%50%39%38%27%36%48%29%36%48%44%29%41%37%33%41%36%37%42%
Too Difficult9%9%9%16%8%8%4%12%6%8%**11%11%10%6%10%3%9%10%7%10%11%14%11%9%8%3%12%9%6%10%8%11%8%11%8%9%12%9%8%7%12%11%8%7%9%12%9%4%
Just About Right38%40%36%36%39%34%44%37%39%39%**39%31%43%41%54%24%36%46%52%28%44%41%48%41%30%28%45%41%29%49%32%40%38%37%41%36%37%38%39%38%39%31%42%46%36%37%39%43%
Not Sure14%14%15%16%8%18%14%12%17%13%**19%13%8%12%11%9%13%19%11%11%19%10%8%14%19%10%9%14%16%14%9%10%16%25%15%7%22%17%6%11%20%17%12%15%14%16%15%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%28%25%27%21%52%48%61%4%24%10%20%49%51%40%79%20%29%46%22%11%19%38%19%9%30%38%28%32%56%31%69%27%33%40%28%35%36%60%40%40%50%10%24%40%20%16%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.