Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14205
Libertarian Puts Speed-Bump On the Road to Elizabeth Dole's Re-Election Party in NC: In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US Senator Elizabeth Dole edges Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. But: Libertarian Christopher Cole gets 7% today, which, when combined with another 5% of voters who are undecided, makes the Senate race today fascinating to watch and difficult to handicap. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, on 07/15/08, which did not include Cole by name, Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole's lead from 30+ points to 20 points. Though Dole holds 82% of the GOP base today, that's down from 90% in July. 1 in 5 NC Independents today vote for Cole, which takes key votes away from both candidates. Dole is running for her second term in the United States Senate. Hagan is serving her fifth term in the North Carolina State Senate. Support for 3rd-Party candidates often collapses as Election Day nears, and that may or may not happen in North Carolina in 2008. Today, 12 weeks out, voters with a message they want to deliver to both Republicans and Democrats are using Cole as their protest vehicle.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 North Carolina adults 08/09/08 through 08/11/08. Of them, 823 were registered to vote; of them, 655 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election.
North Carolina voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Elizabeth Dole? Democrat Kay Hagan? Or Libertarian Chris Cole?
655 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KCharlottRaleigh South &
Elizabeth Dole (R)46%47%46%49%43%45%50%46%47%46%57%45%53%21%****82%23%42%74%40%14%47%45%49%43%40%59%35%45%46%42%**36%33%80%****68%43%47%46%43%56%
Kay Hagan (D)41%38%44%34%44%43%43%40%43%39%37%44%33%72%****8%68%33%13%49%74%42%40%40%41%48%28%54%35%43%46%**53%53%14%****14%43%41%37%47%33%
Chris Cole (L)7%11%4%12%7%7%4%9%5%10%2%6%9%1%****5%3%21%9%7%9%8%7%6%11%9%8%7%13%6%7%**10%11%5%****12%8%8%10%7%4%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%23%31%27%18%55%45%49%9%42%75%19%3%3%33%46%18%32%37%11%52%48%62%23%15%47%49%20%78%50%4%10%8%7%4%5%8%36%64%33%50%17%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.