| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27180 |
| President Biden, Representative Scott Peters Both at 51% in CA-50 Re-Election Bids, Coasting to Easily Democratic Wins:
Voters in California's 50th Congressional District appear poised to re-elect both President Biden and US Representative Scott Peters, according to SurveyUSA's latest exclusive polling for KGTV-TV 10 News and the San Diego Union-Tribune. Biden defeats Trump by 15 points, 51% to 36%, a little less than half his margin in the now-50th district in 2020. 8% of likely voters say they would vote for a third party candidate (more on that in a moment); 5% are undecided. In the US House race, Peters defeats Republican Navy Vet and activist Peter Bono by 18 points, 51% to 33%, with 14% of likely voters undecided and 3% saying they will not cast a ballot in the down-ballot race. Bono is at 85% among Republicans and 2020 Trump voters, at 84% among those voting for Trump this year, at 82% among very conservative and 75% among somewhat conservative voters ... and no higher than 43% among any other subgroup. Turning back to the Presidential race, SurveyUSA finds 79% of likely voters who select a candidate say they will definitely vote for that candidate; 18% say they might change their mind. But note that the odds of changing your mind vary wildly depending on just which candidate you're voting for: 14% of Trump voters say they might do so ... 11% of Biden voters feel the same ... and so do 85% of of those voting for a third-party candidate, reinforcing, as SurveyUSA has noted in previous polling of California's 49th, 51st, 48th, and 52nd Congressional District, as well as in nationwide polling, that third-party Presidential votes expressed in polling are likely not going to translate into actual third-party votes in November. 4% of those who say they will vote for Donald Trump, as well as 3% of those who will vote for Joe Biden and 8% of those who plan to vote for a third party candidate say Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records have changed who they support for President. 59% of all voters (50% of Trump's compared to 68% of Biden's) say the convictions don't change who they vote for, but do make them more supportive of their candidate. 6% of all voters (8% of Trump's, 4% of Biden's) say the convictions don't change their vote but make them less supportive of their candidate. Another 5% (5% of Trump's voters, 2% of Biden's) say it makes them less likely to vote at all. 25% overall, including 32% of Trump's voters and 21% of Biden's, say it doesn't affect their voting plans at all. 14% of likely voters, including 13% of Trump voters, 14% of Biden voters, and 15% of third-party voters each say a potential Trump trial on 2020 election interference could potentially impact their vote; 80% say it would not. Just 2% of likely voters, including 3% of Trump voters, 1% of Biden voters, and 6% of third-party voters, say Biden's new restrictions on asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border change who they will vote for. 40% of voters say this does not change who they vote for, but make them more supportive of their respective candidate, including 48% of Trump supporters and 38% of Biden supporters. 12% of voters say it does not change their vote but makes them less supportive of their candidate. 5% say the restrictions make them less likely to vote at all; 37% say it will not affect their voting plans. Fully crosstabbed results follow ... |
| About the Research / Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 adults from California's 50th Congressional District 06/24/24 through 06/30/24. Of the adults, 673 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 601 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (43% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Respondents unreachable on a landline telephone (57% of likely voters) were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to targets for gender, age, race, home ownership, and recalled 2020 vote. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote in the state of California? |
| 725 Adults | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 2.4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Yes | 93% | 94% | 92% | 83% | 93% | 96% | 100% | 88% | 98% | 93% | 89% | 95% | 90% | 94% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 97% | 90% | 96% | 100% | 90% | 92% | 97% | 98% | 90% | 94% | 95% | 98% | 74% | 93% | 96% | 88% | 90% | 96% | 92% | 93% | 97% | 88% | 88% | 100% |
| No | 6% | 5% | 6% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 10% | 1% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 21% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 9% | 0% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Adults | 100% | 49% | 51% | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | 51% | 49% | 77% | 13% | 10% | 21% | 78% | 72% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 25% | 42% | 27% | 10% | 14% | 35% | 23% | 12% | 24% | 35% | 35% | 29% | 56% | 11% | 29% | 60% | 21% | 30% | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 53% | 61% | 39% |
| 2 | California will elect a President of the United States and members of Congress in November. Are you not interested in politics and will not vote? Not sure whether you will or won't have time to vote? Almost certain you'll find time to vote? Or absolutely 100% certain you will vote? |
| 673 Registered Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Not Interested / Will Not Vote | 3% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 2% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 11% | 5% | 15% | 6% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 11% | 3% |
| Almost Certain | 17% | 14% | 20% | 27% | 21% | 10% | 12% | 24% | 11% | 16% | 20% | 22% | 16% | 18% | 0% | 100% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 45% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 12% | 15% | 21% | 21% | 15% | 15% | 21% | 13% | 15% | 27% | 21% | 14% | 17% | 23% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 22% | 22% | 11% |
| 100% Certain | 72% | 75% | 69% | 56% | 67% | 81% | 82% | 61% | 82% | 74% | 67% | 62% | 77% | 71% | 100% | 0% | 87% | 85% | 85% | 84% | 55% | 79% | 77% | 66% | 75% | 83% | 68% | 75% | 73% | 80% | 68% | 74% | 79% | 77% | 52% | 63% | 79% | 62% | 68% | 79% | 71% | 74% | 80% | 64% | 65% | 83% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 28% | 48% | 52% | 78% | 12% | 10% | 20% | 79% | 72% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 26% | 44% | 26% | 10% | 16% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 26% | 34% | 35% | 30% | 59% | 9% | 29% | 62% | 20% | 29% | 51% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% |
| 3 | If the election for US House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (Candidate names rotated) Republican Peter Bono? Or Democrat Scott Peters? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Peter Bono (R) | 33% | 39% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 35% | 37% | 29% | 36% | 34% | 28% | 31% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 22% | 100% | 0% | 84% | 2% | 20% | 85% | 2% | 32% | 82% | 75% | 31% | 2% | 3% | 78% | 31% | 3% | 85% | 6% | 23% | 35% | 32% | 18% | 33% | 35% | 24% | 38% | 43% | 20% | 27% | 40% |
| Scott Peters (D) | 51% | 48% | 54% | 50% | 43% | 54% | 56% | 46% | 55% | 50% | 60% | 47% | 46% | 52% | 54% | 40% | 0% | 100% | 5% | 84% | 50% | 6% | 83% | 46% | 10% | 12% | 50% | 80% | 85% | 11% | 50% | 82% | 5% | 78% | 53% | 44% | 54% | 63% | 42% | 53% | 56% | 48% | 49% | 54% | 49% | 54% |
| Will Not Cast a Ballot | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Undecided | 14% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 27% | 10% | 5% | 22% | 7% | 14% | 12% | 19% | 21% | 12% | 9% | 34% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 12% | 26% | 6% | 13% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 12% | 17% | 21% | 9% | 16% | 13% | 6% | 23% | 22% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 4 | And if you were filling out your ballot for President of the United States right now, who would you vote for? Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Joe Biden? Or another candidate? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Donald Trump | 36% | 42% | 30% | 36% | 32% | 39% | 36% | 34% | 37% | 37% | 31% | 33% | 41% | 34% | 38% | 27% | 92% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 4% | 37% | 82% | 82% | 35% | 3% | 4% | 82% | 35% | 3% | 95% | 6% | 30% | 43% | 33% | 29% | 32% | 39% | 28% | 42% | 45% | 24% | 34% | 39% |
| Joe Biden | 51% | 48% | 55% | 51% | 48% | 51% | 54% | 49% | 53% | 52% | 51% | 46% | 47% | 52% | 53% | 43% | 3% | 84% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 6% | 84% | 42% | 8% | 12% | 52% | 82% | 84% | 10% | 52% | 83% | 1% | 81% | 54% | 43% | 55% | 53% | 51% | 51% | 56% | 47% | 46% | 57% | 52% | 50% |
| Another Candidate | 8% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 15% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 5% | 7% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 8% |
| Will Not Cast a Ballot | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Undecided | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 5 | Will you definitely vote for that candidate? Or is there a chance you might change your mind? |
| 569 Voting For a Candidate For President | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Definitely Vote For That Candidate | 79% | 81% | 78% | 69% | 71% | 86% | 88% | 70% | 87% | 82% | 72% | 72% | 76% | 80% | 85% | 53% | 80% | 84% | 84% | 87% | 5% | 85% | 85% | 69% | 85% | 84% | 77% | 77% | 83% | 84% | 77% | 79% | 85% | 81% | 76% | 79% | 79% | 76% | 68% | 86% | 76% | 81% | 84% | 73% | 72% | 88% |
| May Change My Mind | 18% | 17% | 20% | 30% | 27% | 10% | 10% | 29% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 13% | 41% | 18% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 85% | 13% | 15% | 27% | 14% | 15% | 20% | 22% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 20% | 13% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 31% | 12% | 22% | 17% | 14% | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Voting For a Candidate For President | 100% | 50% | 50% | 22% | 23% | 25% | 30% | 45% | 55% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 20% | 79% | 82% | 18% | 34% | 52% | 38% | 54% | 8% | 29% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 31% | 24% | 13% | 29% | 31% | 38% | 32% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 30% | 53% | 46% | 53% | 53% | 47% | 55% | 45% |
| 6 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Strongly Approve | 21% | 17% | 25% | 11% | 5% | 23% | 40% | 8% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 1% | 38% | 1% | 39% | 3% | 2% | 37% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 20% | 33% | 33% | 4% | 20% | 33% | 2% | 33% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 21% | 28% | 13% | 9% | 36% |
| Somewhat Approve | 31% | 35% | 26% | 31% | 43% | 31% | 20% | 37% | 25% | 30% | 37% | 26% | 40% | 28% | 30% | 36% | 10% | 42% | 7% | 48% | 29% | 12% | 45% | 25% | 12% | 15% | 32% | 45% | 44% | 14% | 32% | 45% | 8% | 44% | 34% | 27% | 32% | 39% | 32% | 28% | 38% | 25% | 24% | 40% | 39% | 19% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 13% | 10% | 17% | 29% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 23% | 6% | 14% | 5% | 20% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 16% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 31% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 19% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 15% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 18% | 20% | 4% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 33% | 37% | 30% | 30% | 31% | 37% | 35% | 30% | 36% | 33% | 30% | 36% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 80% | 6% | 81% | 1% | 33% | 75% | 5% | 40% | 74% | 78% | 28% | 4% | 10% | 77% | 28% | 6% | 81% | 7% | 25% | 41% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 35% | 26% | 38% | 38% | 27% | 30% | 38% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 7 | Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump did when he was President? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Strongly Approve | 25% | 28% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 27% | 33% | 19% | 30% | 25% | 24% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 65% | 3% | 66% | 1% | 4% | 67% | 2% | 22% | 72% | 59% | 18% | 1% | 1% | 64% | 18% | 1% | 71% | 4% | 24% | 29% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 19% | 28% | 32% | 15% | 18% | 35% |
| Somewhat Approve | 13% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 13% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 5% | 27% | 3% | 14% | 23% | 4% | 18% | 13% | 23% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 19% | 19% | 4% | 23% | 5% | 12% | 18% | 12% | 9% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 9% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 10% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 17% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 17% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 12% | 22% | 3% | 12% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 15% | 13% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 9% | 2% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 6% | 7% | 14% | 13% | 7% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 51% | 43% | 58% | 49% | 51% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 51% | 54% | 47% | 45% | 53% | 51% | 49% | 4% | 82% | 3% | 84% | 60% | 7% | 81% | 42% | 7% | 12% | 47% | 79% | 94% | 10% | 47% | 84% | 4% | 77% | 58% | 42% | 55% | 58% | 50% | 51% | 57% | 47% | 46% | 58% | 52% | 49% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 8 | Donald Trump was convicted by a New York City jury of 34 counts of falsifying business records on May 30th. Does this change who you support for President? Not change who you support, but makes you more supportive of your preferred candidate? Not change who you support, but makes you less supportive of your preferred candidate? Make you less likely to vote at all? Or not affect your voting plans or preferences at all? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Changes Who You Support | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| Not Change / But More Supportive | 59% | 61% | 57% | 50% | 56% | 59% | 67% | 53% | 63% | 61% | 60% | 40% | 51% | 61% | 59% | 56% | 54% | 64% | 50% | 68% | 52% | 55% | 63% | 57% | 62% | 52% | 51% | 73% | 63% | 56% | 51% | 70% | 55% | 64% | 51% | 55% | 62% | 54% | 65% | 58% | 61% | 58% | 58% | 60% | 52% | 68% |
| Not Change / But Less Supportive | 6% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% |
| Less Likely To Vote At All | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Not Affect Voting Plans | 25% | 27% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 32% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 22% | 32% | 28% | 24% | 26% | 21% | 30% | 25% | 32% | 21% | 19% | 28% | 23% | 26% | 19% | 32% | 27% | 17% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 21% | 29% | 21% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 29% | 17% | 28% | 21% | 29% | 27% | 24% | 30% | 19% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 9 | Donald Trump could face trial before the election on charges he conspired to interfere in the 2020 election. Do you expect that trial or its outcome to affect your vote or your likelihood of voting in November? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Potentially, Depending On The Outcome | 14% | 17% | 11% | 15% | 24% | 10% | 9% | 20% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 25% | 11% | 13% | 18% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 18% | 5% | 10% | 17% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 19% | 7% |
| Would Not Affect My Vote | 80% | 80% | 81% | 78% | 69% | 85% | 88% | 73% | 87% | 81% | 77% | 76% | 70% | 83% | 84% | 66% | 79% | 82% | 80% | 83% | 78% | 79% | 83% | 79% | 78% | 86% | 75% | 79% | 91% | 83% | 75% | 83% | 80% | 82% | 81% | 82% | 80% | 81% | 79% | 81% | 77% | 83% | 80% | 81% | 74% | 89% |
| Not Sure | 6% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |
| 10 | President Biden has ordered new restrictions on asylum-seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border. Does this change who you support for President? Not change who you support, but makes you more supportive of your preferred candidate? Not change who you support, but makes you less supportive of your preferred candidate? Make you less likely to vote at all? Or not affect your voting plans or preferences at all? |
| 601 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Parent <18 | Likely Voter? | 2024 House Vote | 2024 Presidential Vote | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Ideology Aggregated | 2020 President | Education | Income | Urbanicity | Home | Type Of Intervie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Credibility Interval: ± 5 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Hispanic | Other | Yes | No | Certain | Probable | Bono | Peters | Trump | Biden | Another | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Very Con | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Very Lib | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Trump | Biden | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Urban | Suburban | Own | Rent | Online | Telephon | |
| Changes Who You Support | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Not Change / But More Supportive | 40% | 39% | 40% | 22% | 44% | 33% | 54% | 34% | 44% | 41% | 32% | 39% | 32% | 41% | 42% | 29% | 48% | 37% | 48% | 38% | 20% | 48% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 47% | 42% | 35% | 21% | 48% | 42% | 30% | 50% | 37% | 31% | 42% | 39% | 34% | 40% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 47% | 32% | 29% | 54% |
| Not Change / But Less Supportive | 12% | 11% | 12% | 29% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 5% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 5% | 17% | 5% | 15% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 29% | 5% | 11% | 19% | 5% | 16% | 14% | 9% | 12% | 24% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 18% | 16% | 6% |
| Less Likely To Vote At All | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 8% |
| Not Affect Voting Plans | 37% | 40% | 34% | 38% | 30% | 50% | 31% | 34% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 30% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 40% | 28% | 32% | 37% | 44% | 25% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 39% | 35% | 38% | 39% | 32% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 38% | 30% | 34% | 42% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 43% | 30% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 30% | 46% | 54% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 21% | 78% | 81% | 19% | 33% | 51% | 36% | 51% | 8% | 27% | 46% | 24% | 11% | 17% | 32% | 24% | 13% | 27% | 32% | 38% | 30% | 61% | 8% | 27% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 52% | 48% | 57% | 43% |