Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12097
 
Giuliani Is Still Lead Wagon In CA GOP Gold Rush, but with Fred Thompson "In," Rudy Lead Trimmed to 13 Pts: 9 Months to the newly accelerated and suddenly critical California Republican Primary, the contest tightens, according to the first poll of likely California Republican Primary voters following last week's California debate, conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for its media clients in the West. Former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani is at 34% today, 05/07/07, 13 points ahead of Arizona Senator John McCain, who finishes in 2nd place at 21%. But: compared to a SurveyUSA poll of likely CA GOP Primary voters one month ago -- the 04/02/07 release did not name Actor Fred Thompson -- Giuliani is today down 9 points, from 43% then to 34% now. McCain is down 3 points, from 24% then to 21% now. Former MA Governor Mitt Romney, who finishes 3rd today at 12%, is up 5 points, from 7% a month ago. Actor Fred Thompson is effectively tied with Romney for 3rd place today, at 11% today. Among California's Republican Conservatives, 30% vote Giuliani, 16% vote McCain, 16% vote Romney, 13% vote Thompson and 13% vote for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who is not a declared candidate. Among CA Republican Moderates, Giuliani runs 9 points stronger than he does among Conservatives, at 39%; McCain runs 13 points stronger, at 29%; Romney runs 8 points weaker, at 8%, Thompson runs 6 points weaker, at 7%; and Gingrich runs 7 points weaker, at 6%. Giuliani runs strongest among those in favor of stem-cell research, among pro-choice Republicans, among Hispanic Republicans, and among those who support same-sex marriage.
 
Hillary Clinton Consolidates Support, Gathers Strength, Now 21 Points Atop Obama in CA Democratic Primary Run: 9 months to the make-or-break California Democratic Primary, New York Senator Hillary Clinton is now 21 points ahead of her nearest challenger, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, according to the first poll of likely CA Democratic Primary voters conducted after the Democratic debate in SC on 04/26/07. Clinton is today at 48%, up 5 points from a SurveyUSA poll released 04/02/07. Obama is at 27% today, effectively unchanged from his 26% showing a month ago. Former U.S. Senator John Edwards is at 15% today, ever-so-slightly down from his 17% showing a month ago. Among male Democrats, Obama leads Clinton by 3 points, 36% to 33%. Among female Democrats, Clinton leads Obama by 38 points, 59% to 21%. That' a 41-point Gender Gap. Clinton's lead comes entirely from female voters. Obama gets 66% of the black vote, but Clinton gets 66% of the Hispanic vote. And in California, in SurveyUSA's turnout model, there are 3 times as many Hispanic Democratic Primary voters as black. Edwards does no better among California's Democratic union members than among non-union members.
 
Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/04/07 through 05/06/07. Of them, 1,730 were registered to vote. Of them, 456 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Republican California Primary. 667 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 02/05/08 Democratic California Primary. Results here are based on interviews with Likely Primary Voters. Because SurveyUSA changed the exact question wording it used for this 05/07/07 release, to name more candidates in the Republican Primary and to name fewer candidates in the Democratic Primary, SurveyUSA does not here produce tracking graphs, since an identical, apples-to-apples comparison is not possible. However, data from SurveyUSA's 04/02/07 release is available for comparison here.
 
If the Republican Primary were today, would you vote for... Rudy Giuliani? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Newt Gingrich? Or some other Republican?
456 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 4.7 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Giuliani34%34%34%34%**46%23%30%39%36%35%35%31%38%35%34%39%26%31%36%44%31%33%37%37%34%36%31%29%35%39%37%32%38%31%33%37%39%34%27%39%36%32%36%34%35%24%39%
McCain21%23%17%20%**22%21%16%29%18%19%22%16%25%25%12%21%18%28%17%27%18%17%24%23%20%17%27%19%21%17%21%18%21%20%24%20%26%22%24%9%23%18%36%23%18%27%9%
Romney12%12%12%13%**5%14%16%8%5%12%13%17%7%10%15%11%16%12%12%5%15%14%10%13%12%14%10%17%12%9%12%13%14%13%10%11%14%11%11%15%12%12%10%14%10%12%15%
Fred Thompson11%10%13%11%**5%16%13%7%15%12%10%12%10%8%15%8%17%8%12%8%12%15%8%11%11%13%10%14%11%10%9%15%8%10%9%18%5%8%15%17%7%16%0%10%10%14%17%
Gingrich9%9%10%8%**8%16%13%6%1%10%7%12%5%6%14%9%9%10%9%7%10%9%8%7%8%10%5%13%8%4%8%9%8%10%10%6%3%10%12%9%8%11%3%8%12%8%9%
Other8%9%7%7%**13%7%6%8%19%7%12%7%10%11%5%9%7%8%8%7%7%8%7%7%8%5%13%2%8%17%7%9%7%10%8%6%9%9%7%6%9%7%13%8%8%7%6%
Undecided5%4%7%6%**1%3%5%4%6%5%1%5%4%5%5%3%7%3%5%2%6%5%5%2%6%4%5%6%4%3%6%4%4%6%6%3%4%6%5%5%5%5%3%3%6%7%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%60%40%70%3%15%13%55%36%6%84%9%52%45%55%41%63%32%28%72%24%73%46%51%33%63%66%22%25%54%19%54%45%24%39%19%17%20%36%26%18%56%44%10%24%31%17%18%
 
If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?
667 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderRaceIdeology2004 VoteAbortionGlobal WarmingStem Cell ResearLabor UnionSame Sex MarriagGun OwnershipMilitary DraftWho Is Winning WBush in HistoryPassport CurrentRegionAge<50 / 50+Generation
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemaleWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtConservaModerateLiberalBushKerryPro-lifePro-choiRealMade-upForAgainstYesNoSupportOpposeYesNoNeedNo NeedUnited STerrorisOne Of AAn AveraOne Of TYesNoCentral Greater Inland EBay Area18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Gen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Clinton48%33%59%43%27%66%49%55%46%48%26%51%40%50%50%34%48%46%47%49%50%44%38%52%43%49%42%53%**38%51%47%51%43%48%50%50%53%43%49%48%47%49%61%43%47%48%48%
Obama27%36%21%26%66%13%31%24%28%28%25%27%33%25%27%30%27%27%30%26%25%30%30%26%22%29%28%26%**28%27%30%23%31%26%22%28%26%31%27%22%29%25%22%32%30%27%22%
Edwards15%18%12%18%4%14%10%7%17%16%22%14%18%14%15%16%15%8%14%15%15%14%20%13%23%12%14%13%**17%14%14%16%19%14%17%13%13%15%13%18%14%15%16%11%15%15%18%
Other7%12%3%9%2%3%9%8%6%6%20%5%6%7%6%19%6%13%6%7%5%10%8%6%9%6%12%5%**9%6%7%7%3%10%8%5%8%8%4%8%8%6%2%12%5%5%8%
Undecided3%1%4%4%2%4%1%5%3%2%7%2%2%3%3%0%3%7%4%3%3%2%4%3%2%3%3%2%**7%2%3%3%4%3%3%4%0%3%6%3%2%5%0%2%3%6%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%42%58%52%9%26%13%10%47%37%10%76%18%80%89%9%88%8%33%66%61%33%26%72%23%73%20%62%2%17%81%53%45%16%41%12%31%23%28%30%19%51%49%11%24%24%22%19%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.